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Winter 2015/16


reef

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Winter threads have always started the same way,with references to previous winter's being pretty much inevitable.

 

As the countdown to the start of winter draws nearer,no doubt the discussion will be more focussed as more relevant data and winter forecasts etc. become available.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Winter threads have always started the same way,with references to previous winter's being pretty much inevitable.

 

As the countdown to the start of winter draws nearer,no doubt the discussion will be more focussed as more relevant data and winter forecasts etc. become available.

 

And this is exactly why we don't open it in August! :)

 

Anyway, winter forecasts are starting to emerge, the tabloids are releasing their sensationalist BS, Autumn signs that may/may not predict the winter ahead are in full flow and the long range models have winter in their sights - so there are plenty of things to get discussions flowing! 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Regarding this winter it would be interesting to get peoples preference regarding timing.

I actually prefer my cold and snow in the Nov-Jan period. While I did enjoy winter 2013, I found that March 12 had ruined me for other March's.

Rare that you get exceptional Nov-Jan periods though.

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

i like my winters to be somewhere between the beginning of december and the end of february. give or take a week or two either way......

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

As interesting as it may be talking about previous winters, the clues in the title - Winter 2015/16... It would be great if more posts tied in with it! :)

 

I'm hoping for something much colder and snowier to dominate this year, with some powerful Atlantic storms thrown in for good measure.

But at such an early stage this thread will quickly come round on itself because it will be restricted to a few distant charts/forecasts and people just saying 'I hope for this and that this winter'. At this stage it is inevitable to talk about past winters, especially if they could be used in an analogue context for this year.
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Gav's 4th winter update

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Jordanstown, Co. Antrim
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, warm sunny summers.
  • Location: Jordanstown, Co. Antrim

I'm waiting for James Madden and his predictions of a "big freeze" to appear on the front of the Daily Express.

Should be any day now :)

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

Gav's 4th winter update

 

 

Gav

 

Not yet seen your latest forecast.

 

But just looking at your video icon above, it struck me as to how different the SST's are for the Arctic and Antarctic.

The blues all around Antarctica contrast heavily with the yellow and reds all the way around the Arctic.

 

Surely we must understand why?

 

Not tying to start a debate on here, but I am surprised that it hasn't been discussed more widely! It looks notable.

 

MIA

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Unfortunately, short of opening this thread in the third week of November, there will inevitably be talk of previous winters and adjacent autumns simply because at this stage we do like to compare year on year. There's absolutely no harm in that so long as it is made relevant to the upcoming winter. Simply reminiscing past winters should of course be dedicated to a thread in the Historic Weather section. If we removed all conversation on previous winters, this thread would be pretty empty.

 

As it happens, I'm quite looking forward to the next few months to see how the sea temperatures behave - do we have a temporary warming of our nearby SSTs as normally happens in late September / early autumn only to be replaced by a cooling from November onwards, or has the Atlantic chosen to be most anomalously cold in the wrong half of the year. Time will tell, but I think that will be very telling on what conditions we get and where the jet stream ultimately sets up. I think I said on a previous page that I would like the majority of any stormy weather to come in November and early December with a switch to more seasonal wintry weather come mid-December, a la 2009 but without the horrendous flooding in the northwest, and preferably with a few drier intervals in between.

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Posted
  • Location: Grimsby, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow blizzard
  • Location: Grimsby, Lincolnshire

Looking forward to this winter and hoping for improvement on the past two. 

Gut feeling is it may just be average at best... Some snow here and there but overall westerly based. 

Hoar frosts and Sub Zero days would be beautiful but I don't want to set my sights too high. 

 

Maybe the Beast will awaken at some point?

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

With good heights over the pole for the time of year i decided to look at high amplitude October's (AO value of +/- >1) and see what the winter's looked like.

 

Remember that these are the years of the October so roll forward for the name of the winter (I've picked the Jan-March period).

 

+1

 

1956 - PNN

1963 - ///

1967 - /NP

1971 - ///

1983 - //N

1985 - /NP

1986 - NNN

2008 - ///

 

Jan: 75% neutral AO

Feb: 100% chance negative or neutral AO

March: 75% chance negative or neutral AO

 

+AO values in October exceeding +1 do not lend themselves to +AO winters it seems.

 

..

 

-1

 

1960 - N//

1966 - /PP

1968 - NNN

1974 - P//

1979 - N/N

1981 - //P

2002 - ///

2006 - PNP

2009 - NN/

2012 - /NN

2014 - PPP

 

Jan: 72% chance negative or neutral AO

Feb: 45% chance neutral AO

March: 72% chance positive or neutral AO

 

So there we have it, for a -AO winter a strongly positive October is better than a strongly negative October for the AO, at least during Feb and March.

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Posted
  • Location: Wokingham
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny summers and snowy winters
  • Location: Wokingham

I'm waiting for James Madden and his predictions of a "big freeze" to appear on the front of the Daily Express.

Should be any day now :)

 

you missed it..... they posted the article 3 weeks ago

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/604619/Long-range-weather-forecast-Britain-cold-winter-2015-arctic-snow-freeze

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Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl

Regarding this winter it would be interesting to get peoples preference regarding timing.

I actually prefer my cold and snow in the Nov-Jan period. While I did enjoy winter 2013, I found that March 12 had ruined me for other March's.

Rare that you get exceptional Nov-Jan periods though.

In terms of last year's affair, I personally think it was perhaps a little underrated really although the way it panned out, it was a typical average Winter with some big regional variations. Interestingly, I think most people would regard the last 9 Winter's (before 14/15) as being either above (06/07, 07/08, 11/12, 13/14) or below average; last year's Winter I think was much more of an average set up with bits and pieces here and there, nothing too magnificently exciting and nothing too horribly dull. 

 

In terms of timings; I don't particularly have a huge preference. I didn't like 2010-11 in the sense it finished after 4 weeks so the remaining 9-10 weeks or so we're disappointing. But if I think of other recent Winter's, 2008-09 saw an absolute worldy of a cold spell (well in my location anyway) in the February with 20cm+ for well over a week; 2009-10 saw snow at a very different time but was equally as exciting.

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

Last winter was dull as dishwater here....had one morning of slush and that was it. Hoping for the mother of all easterlies as they're the only things that tend do deliver in my region.

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

Last winter was dull as dishwater here....had one morning of slush and that was it. Hoping for the mother of all easterlies as they're the only things that tend do deliver in my region.

The word to describe last winter was 'marginal'. Areas with a bit of altitude had quite a few decent snowy spells, but for anyone near sea level or close to the coast it was very poor.

 

The main problem was most cold setups were short-lived, with marginal or modified uppers and when it did briefly get cold enough it was dry.

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Posted
  • Location: Tonyrefail (175m asl)
  • Location: Tonyrefail (175m asl)

Hi,  as i see it this winter has a strong chance of being mild to very mild.  The siginificantly positive enso coupled with the positive and strong QBO signal usually combine to override other factors such as Atlantic SST's.  I hope I'm wrong but wouldn't be surprised to see the N'ly tracking jet / bartlett scenario prevail for longer periods this winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Hattersley, greater manchester 160m asl.
  • Location: Hattersley, greater manchester 160m asl.

Can't remember the night of the 28th, do you remember what time that video was recorded...maybe I was asleep ha. But remember waking up in the morning and it taking an hour to go 3 miles to work. And then the snow getting heavier till about mid day.

post-21944-0-40352400-1444139786_thumb.j

post-21944-0-56275700-1444139822_thumb.j

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Posted
  • Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, cold, cold and errrr......cold. I am, unashamedly, a cold fan.
  • Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth
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Posted
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol

Hi,  as i see it this winter has a strong chance of being mild to very mild.  The siginificantly positive enso coupled with the positive and strong QBO signal usually combine to override other factors such as Atlantic SST's.  I hope I'm wrong but wouldn't be surprised to see the N'ly tracking jet / bartlett scenario prevail for longer periods this winter.

Not according to the UK MET.

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Posted
  • Location: NorthWest Central London, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy Winters, Hot and Sunny Summers - Never Mild!
  • Location: NorthWest Central London, United Kingdom

Hi,  as i see it this winter has a strong chance of being mild to very mild.  The siginificantly positive enso coupled with the positive and strong QBO signal usually combine to override other factors such as Atlantic SST's.  I hope I'm wrong but wouldn't be surprised to see the N'ly tracking jet / bartlett scenario prevail for longer periods this winter.

I think we could be close to having a mild winter,  but this all depends how strong the El-Nino becomes by December. If it gets any stronger, something akin to the El Nino of 1997/1998, we could be facing a Winter like that winter (97/98). However, it is possibble for the El Nino to reach its peak in November and from there, decline. I'm hoping, if everything times nicely, this will acour, and with a Midoki El Nino, we could be looking at something really interesting.

 

Although an eQBO aids in higher heiights to our North and declines our Westerlies, it is not the be all or be none factor for the type of weather thhe UK can experience in Winter. Look  back and you will find that even wQBO's can produce some cold Winter's too for the Uk ;)

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Not according to the UK MET.

And what are the Met Office predicting this year? I thought they'd quit with the long range seasonal forecasts?  Can you provide a link to the Met's thoughts on the coming winter, thanks :)

Edited by *Sub*Zero*
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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.

Ah, I'll keep an eye on this over the coming months, but no longer really applies to me, since I live in Moldova now. I don't suppose you will all forecast for me will you? Tis a bit limited here!

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl

I'm sure if your around on here through the winter one or two on here will give you a heads up.

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