Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, karyo said:

A pretty impressive stratospheric warming on the 12z gfs starting just after 300hours. Sorry can't post image.

It is the first run that shows this so to be taken with caution and I am sure most people are focusing on the tropospheric output to notice it.

Karyo

Its a top down warming by the looks of things as well.

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2016010612&var=HGT&lev=1mb&hour=384

[karyo]

18 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its a top down warming by the looks of things as well.

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2016010612&var=HGT&lev=1mb&hour=384

Yes, let's see if it becomes a recurring theme. If it was the 6z I wouldn't be taking much notice.

[KyleHenry]

6 minutes ago, karyo said:

Yes, let's see if it becomes a recurring theme. If it was the 6z I wouldn't be taking much notice.

FU Berlin ECM should be picking signal up by the 10th Jan 

[Recretos]

Not really that surprising. 

I made a video of the 6z run, showing the absolute vorticity, from 200mb up to 10mb. In the first top down view, you can really see all the activity going on at the feet of the polar vortex, especially the strong wave breaking over Asia-Siberia, and Euro-Atl sector which is quite likely the reason we are seeing this warming now in 12z. It really gives you a feeling where and how the energy is going up from the troposphere, directly from the bottom up, into the vortex surf zone. Its perhaps not as easy to comprehend it right away, but if you know what you are looking at, it gives you a very new perspective, mainly because I haven't made an animation yet, with such defined wave breaking. 

 

 

Edited January 6, 2016 by Recretos

[ukpaul]

Are there any examples of SSW's appearing after an already fragmented polar vortex? Might be interesting to know what could happen with that.

[Singularity]

That's so cool Recretos, it looks like an iceberg suffering at the hands of multiple fires!

What with all the hysteria over the tropospheric output from the GFS and ECM 12z det. runs I almost missed that SSW showing. Hints have been coming and going over the past few GFS det. runs but this one really detonated the bomb.

[Allseasons-Si]

Are we on the up from here?

[snefnug]

53 minutes ago, Singularity said:

That's so cool Recretos, it looks like an iceberg suffering at the hands of multiple fires!

What with all the hysteria over the tropospheric output from the GFS and ECM 12z det. runs I almost missed that SSW showing. Hints have been coming and going over the past few GFS det. runs but this one really detonated the bomb.

Simple surfer here.  It looked amazing and - even though no connection - northern lights ish.

[Woollymummy]

It is a lot lovelier to see it in your 3D mind's eye than a flat picture, thank you!

[Recretos]

Thanks guys. 

Since you were so kind, here is another 3D animation, from 12z GFS, showing the downward propagating warming on the GFS from 240-384h, tilting and weakening the temperature core of the polar vortex. You can see its hearth shrinking in this run. 

 

 

[snefnug]

Oh!  Speechless.

[Allseasons-Si]

Thanks Recretos,looks like it was gasping for air there in the middle of that clip with it's tongue hanging out lol.

[karyo]

Sadly the 18z gfs is not interested.

Let's hope the warming returns in future runs.

[Snowman.]

14 minutes ago, karyo said:

Sadly the 18z gfs is not interested.

Let's hope the warming returns in future runs.

Looks like the 18z is interested in nothing but rebuilding the tropospheric vortex.

[Weather-history]

11 hours ago, ukpaul said:

Are there any examples of SSW's appearing after an already fragmented polar vortex? Might be interesting to know what could happen with that.

Well, if you look at the winters of 1976-77 and 2008-09, the coldest weather came largely before the SSW. The mildest part of each winter were after the SSW, so I'm not sure if you are in a cold weather pattern that you want a SSW because it could knock you out of it. 

[Allseasons-Si]

23 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Are we on the up from here?

Keep going

[karyo]

17 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Keep going

The nice warming from yesterday's 12z GFS has not been seen since though.

[Cheshire Freeze]

14 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Well, if you look at the winters of 1976-77 and 2008-09, the coldest weather came largely before the SSW. The mildest part of each winter were after the SSW, so I'm not sure if you are in a cold weather pattern that you want a SSW because it could knock you out of it. 

I would imagine it would shuffle the cards....you could be lucky and improve your full house with a royal flush but you could also end up with a pair of 2s!

[feb1991blizzard]

14 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Well, if you look at the winters of 1976-77 and 2008-09, the coldest weather came largely before the SSW. The mildest part of each winter were after the SSW, so I'm not sure if you are in a cold weather pattern that you want a SSW because it could knock you out of it. 

But the best synoptics came in Early Feb, it was only chance that we didn't repeat Feb 1991 in terms of uppers with that setup at that time of year, But the main thing to remember here anyway is a near SSW can severely influence the hemispheric pattern and particularly the AO/NAO setup, so effectively you can get a cold spell before or around the time of a technical SSW, a technical SSW is just a threshold we use really, its the mean zonal winds at 10mb at 60N so doesn't necessarily preclude the UK going Easterly before the SSW threashold is reached although its usually 6-15 days after it from what i can gather.

[damianslaw]

As illustrated cold winters and periods have occurred without a SSW, an easterly QBO and low solar activity I think being key factors, and also the state of ENSO - a weak El Nino???

This winter has the capacity to be an exception to the rule, the super El Nino in a mature state very early on in the season combined with the descending solar energy on the back of a weak solar max, and west QBO has few comparsons.

We could be about to see a winter of two extremely opposing two halves even without a SSW, or with a SSW that comes rather late in the day..

 

[summer blizzard]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

As illustrated cold winters and periods have occurred without a SSW, an easterly QBO and low solar activity I think being key factors, and also the state of ENSO - a weak El Nino???

This winter has the capacity to be an exception to the rule, the super El Nino in a mature state very early on in the season combined with the descending solar energy on the back of a weak solar max, and west QBO has few comparsons.

We could be about to see a winter of two extremely opposing two halves even without a SSW, or with a SSW that comes rather late in the day..

 

Winter 09 and Dec 10 all saw +QBO values and low solar activity.

For a Nino and +QBO combination to potentially deliver though is notable (the horror show of 07 and the month just passed being two great examples). 

[Yarmy]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

Winter 09 and Dec 10 all saw +QBO values and low solar activity.

For a Nino and +QBO combination to potentially deliver though is notable (the horror show of 07 and the month just passed being two great examples). 

DJF 09/10  was a -ve QBO phase, so by 09 you mean winter 08/09?

[summer blizzard]

11 hours ago, Yarmy said:

DJF 09/10  was a -ve QBO phase, so by 09 you mean winter 08/09?

Yes. When people say winter x they generally mean the Jan of that year.  Unless my memory is failing me then winter 09 and Dec 10 both saw -MEI and +QBO values.

[Weather-history]

19 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

But the best synoptics came in Early Feb, it was only chance that we didn't repeat Feb 1991 in terms of uppers with that setup at that time of year, But the main thing to remember here anyway is a near SSW can severely influence the hemispheric pattern and particularly the AO/NAO setup, so effectively you can get a cold spell before or around the time of a technical SSW, a technical SSW is just a threshold we use really, its the mean zonal winds at 10mb at 60N so doesn't necessarily preclude the UK going Easterly before the SSW threashold is reached although its usually 6-15 days after it from what i can gather.

The thing is though, the SSW of the time led to predictions of a frigid February. It wasn't in the end.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

The thing is though, the SSW of the time led to predictions of a frigid February. It wasn't in the end.

But I don't remember there being any cold at all in the run up until the SSW took hold, we know an SSW isn't a guarantee of frigid cold involving blocking but gives a better than even chance of it, Jan 87 the SSW was a week and a half after the bitter cold but if the SSW had never occurred to any extent and the polar 10mb temps would have stayed around average, theres no way that that bitter spell would have occurred so what I'm saying is the SSW doesn't knock you out of it, it just seems that way, that's my view anyway.