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HO-PI Winter Index - October vote


Paul

HO-PI October Poll  

89 members have voted

  1. 1. How do you think the upcoming winter is going to pan out?

    • 100% confidence of a cold winter
      8
    • 90% confidence of a cold winter
      0
    • 80% confidence of a cold winter
      2
    • 70% confidence of a cold winter
      11
    • 60% confidence of a cold winter
      19
    • 50/50 cold or mild
      15
    • 60% confidence of a mild winter
      10
    • 70% confidence of a mild winter
      12
    • 80% confidence of a mild winter
      10
    • 90% confidence of a mild winter
      1
    • 100% confidence of a mild winter
      0


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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

Following on from the initial HO-PI vote (https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84055-ho-pi-winter-index-201516/), here we go with the October version. Please vote on your gut instinct of how you think the winter is going to pan out. 

 

After this vote (which'll close in a few days) we can start to compare how community confidence is either increasing or decreasing compared to last month, with the final vote at the end of November. 

 

As before, this is just a bit of unscientific fun :D

Edited by Paul
Added close date / time of 23:59 on the 1st November
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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

60per cent in favour of a cold winter was my vote.

Edited by sundog
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Sticking with the 70% chance of a mild winter. I think the winter if it does have any cold spells will be back-loaded. There could be some rather gruesome (for coldies) set ups over the coming month or so.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

Sticking with the 70% chance of a mild winter. I think the winter if it does have any cold spells will be back-loaded. There could be some rather gruesome (for coldies) set ups over the coming month or so.

Agreed. If a SSW occurs late January and we only begin to see the benefits in early to mid February, it it will be tough to get below average overall, bare in mind February has less days too.

Edited by mountain shadow
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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

I've switched opinion in favour of a milder winter. Notably this euro block could be very stubborn in some form. It could move north and allow Something colder but seems some like the METO look more confident in something milder. Not saying they are right but would still trust them that little more.

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Posted
  • Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, cold, cold and errrr......cold. I am, unashamedly, a cold fan.
  • Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth

Still 80% cold.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

I too think any cold is likely in February from a warming event.

I have though voted 80% mild as i do think we will see a mainly +AO/NAO in December and January which would tilt the balance towards above average temps. for the 3 month period.

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

I've gone for a 50/50 chance :) 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

Still at 70's.....110% Hope now :D

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

Still sticking with the half way house 50/50 my gut feeling

Is a mild December,with colder weather from mid January

C.S

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

Prety sure this winter.....especially December and January...will end up mild.   I think the last half of November perhaps going on into December will be newsworthy wet!   I expect Christmas to be damp and foggy

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Posted
  • Location: Braintree, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny in the summer, cold and snowy in the winter
  • Location: Braintree, Essex

I've gone 80% mild.  These Euro blocks have a nasty habit of sticking around.  Hope I'm wrong.

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Posted
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol

All these votes on gut feelings, so funny. If everyone was going by the actual the evidence on show there wouldnt be such a spread in the results.

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

All these votes on gut feelings, so funny. If everyone was going by the actual the evidence on show there wouldnt be such a spread in the results.

 

I'm not aware there has been any definitive long range forecasts that show any degree of accuracy ever. The spread reflects 'don't know' and is probably better then any Daily Express forecast.

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