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Model Output Discussion - 18z 31/10/15 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Indeed I cannot see any major change over the UK from what is predicted by the anomaly charts. Obviously Atlantic weather systems will affect some parts from time to time but any sign of the major trough coming east seem unlikely for 2 weeks.

 

see 8-14 NOAA in knockers post above.

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

Some interesting Synoptics in the 18Z ens. Take a look at ptb 1,3,5,11,16,18 around Greenland in low res. again nothing major just reassuring signs of the winter season approaching. Having said that ptb 5 might raise an eyebrow or two!

Edited by ITSY
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Some really good GFS ens this morning, I have a feeling this forum may start to get busier soon. Even the FI mean is starting to show promise.

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

Far FI of the 00z GFS would be banked by the vast majority here I suspect. Huge Mid-Atlantic block, no doubting a set up like that would lead to the first (and an early) cold spell of the winter for most, more of the same please...

Edited by s4lancia
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

The GEFS go skittish after about D7 with wild scatter (London):   post-14819-0-59455700-1446449889_thumb.g Yesterday's 0z: post-14819-0-99902000-1446449945_thumb.g

 

As you can see from  yesterdays 0z, it is a theme at the moment and it does appear there is high entropy from next weekend. The anomalies suggest that week 3-4 the four wave pattern shifts east and the UK becomes more influenced by the trough:

 

CFS: post-14819-0-61188300-1446450141_thumb.g

 

Lots of uncertainty as to timing and extent of eastward drift, as the GFS op shows today, as it reverts back to the ECM take at D10:

 

post-14819-0-40493900-1446450360_thumb.p  post-14819-0-97089700-1446450360_thumb.g

 

The last couple of days it had been hinting at an earlier pattern change though it's known bias always made me sceptical. This morning GEM flattens the pattern between D7-8: 

 

post-14819-0-77638400-1446450520_thumb.p

 

Bearing in mind the scatter on the GEFS it is probably too early to call anything after D7. A more changeable week ahead as the battle between heights are joined over the UK so plenty of frontal activity and LP systems bringing wetter weather to some. The first is Wednesday:

 

post-14819-0-25616000-1446450931_thumb.g

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Some rain is possible anywhere during mid week but after this we start and see a SE NW split developing on this mornings ECM with high pressure continuing to dominate mainland Europe the SE will hold onto the driest and warmest conditions whilst the far north and Northwest will be at the greatest risk of some rain as low pressure systems track towards Iceland

 

Recm1201.gifRecm1681.gifRecm2161.gifRecm2401.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cool clear sunny weather all year.
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex

Breaking news - Cold Plunge!!!

 

I post these just out of interest at the moment. Yesterday the GFS hinted at dropping a trough down to our east and possible retrogression of the HP. Yesterdays 18z GEFS(P) anomaly didn't seem adverse to something similar and the end of this morning's ops comes up with a couple of humdingers.

Charts courtesy weatherbell

Thats a 1079 high over greenland.

Surely not actually true....

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

"certainly" a flatter' more mobile pattern

by mid month.

Euro high finaly showing signs of its

dominance.

The northern hemispherical synopsis

"HIGHLIGHTING" the polar vortex

is in somewhat dissaray.

And At present only assumptions

can be made on How organised it does/does'nt become further down the road.

Obviously having perhaps massive ramifications going forward into winter proper.

post-18793-0-22435200-1446462727_thumb.p

post-18793-0-61043200-1446462977_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

It has to be said that the ext ecm anomaly doesn't support the GEFS in moving the trough east and extended south and retains the influence of the HP over the UK out to T360 with perhaps only the far north experiencing unsettled Pm air. Until the ecm and NOAA shift towards the gfs interpretation I'll be keeping the factor 20 handy.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

The Ens are really good for colder mid November onwards, just a shame the METO are thinking diff.

The control is just 1 example - really nice!!

post-18651-0-29794300-1446464519_thumb.j

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

Absolutely loving these Gfs 00z charts which scream wintry potential, I saw potential on yesterday's 12z which I commented on last night but these are in a different league, the Northern Hemisphere profile looks a thing of Beauty around mid Nov... really hope coldies get something to cheer about this month! :cold:  :clapping:  

very symmetrical synoptics between the eastern pacific and eastern atlantic..very similar to last 2 weeks of November 2010

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

We are seeing the impacts of a highly disorganised polar vortex; the N. Hemisphere pattern leans toward extremes one way or another, be it exceptionally mild or remarkably cold. Any 'westerly wind bursts' in the Atlantic (stealing the term used in the tropics and associating it with a brief spike in jet stream intensity) have the potential to rearrange the pattern and take us from one extreme to the other. A typical regime of milder and colder days is still achievable, but the odds are lower for the UK when the jet is tending to meander about a lot.

 

Of course it won't necessarily be unusual temperatures on the table, for example if an area of low pressure was to become cut-off and slowly drift over the UK, mixing out any colder air but keeping temps no higher than average by day.

 

Either way, a weak polar vortex tends to prove far more interesting than a strong vortex. It would be unusual for a strong El Nino winter to retain a weak vortex into Dec but you never know I suppose - this year's atmosphere-ocean state has too many unique features to allow for much confidence behind our expectations.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

I have moved some posts to the Model/Banter thread, So if yours is missing its here. https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83902-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-autumnwinter-201516/page-22#entry3277285

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Good grief.................a plume!

Yes, the GFS went one from extreme to another from the 00z... Hardly surprising?

 

post-9615-0-01767000-1446466336_thumb.pn to post-9615-0-11007000-1446466515_thumb.pn

Edited by *Sub*Zero*
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Definitely a movement in the models today - the euro block looks a little less impressive by the start of next week and consequently the Atlantic storms track ever closer. Change will be a long time coming further south but I think all areas will feel the effects of the Atlantic train by next week.

This may eventually allow colder air to sink south behind clearing fronts, perhaps within the 10 day period in northern areas, and maybe by mid-month in the south.

However, forecasts of a change in the south are rather tentative at the moment and could easily come to nothing if the euro high remains more robust. Indeed, the slight change in pattern could lead to even warmer temperatures for a while in eastern areas as the fog risk diminishes, and a spring-like feel looks likely at times next weekend for many, once again.

Nothing conclusively suggesting a genuine cold spell out snap could arise before mid-November - the PV looks well in charge further north, and like in many winters, we will be restricted to looking for minor cracks and imperfections to pop up in the higher latitudes in order for winter to arrive.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Nice to see much more seasonal weather arriving across the uk  on the Gfs 6z well before mid november with polar maritime air sweeping across the north with wintry ppn across northern hills and night frosts, hopefully our first cold snap of the season is not far away. :)

post-4783-0-31144000-1446467514_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-52313400-1446467546_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-69145300-1446467571_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-57880500-1446467587_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Now the chart you posted could be as on the money as colder ones and as its the model thread each are valid as each other....andt its reasonable to speculate.  No shock horror re plume, we havinmg plenty of that at the moment away from the fog.

 

BFTP

 

The chart I posted is certainly not valid speculation and nor is any other single chart from a single run fifteen days down the line irrespective of what it shows. I would go further and say they are totally misleading.

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