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Alps & Pyrenees Snow Thread 2015/16


J10

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
1 hour ago, J10 said:

 

The latest snow update from Ski Club GB giving European latest conditions have been posted. I have given the summary below, the detailed version is available at the links provided.

(Snipped)

Thanks Julian. Next Weds into Thurs (16th/17th) looks to be the next spell of snow for the Alps. But the 850 hPa temps no great shakes so the problem will be at what height freezing level and the snow line? Today's charts suggesting freezing level will be around 1,500m by night and way above 2,000m by day, so maybe only the highest slopes benefitting. We'll see nearer the time and no doubt your weekly forecast will cover this.

 

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The latest ski Blog for the season has been posted here ->

https://forum.netweather.tv/blogs/entry/4910-alps-ski-and-snow-forecast-blog-issued-11-december/

It goes into a bit of detail on the midweek snow prospects and tends at this stage to agree with Malcolm's suggestion of higher slopes largely benefiting.

Please let me now that you think of it, and give suggestions for features etc.

The next forecast blog is suggested to be the (Friday) 18th December with 2 covering the Christmas period the first on the (Thursday) 24th December to cover the weekend following Christmas and another one a few days later on the (Monday) 28th December, with a new one for the new year on Friday 1st January.

Edited by J10
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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

Hi Julian. I'm getting an error message when I click on your blog link:

Sorry, there is a problem
We could not locate the item you are trying to view.

Error code: 2B202/1

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14 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

Hi Julian. I'm getting an error message when I click on your blog link:

Sorry, there is a problem
We could not locate the item you are trying to view.

Error code: 2B202/1

Hi Malcolm Cheers for that

I have now corrected the blog error and it should work.

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Posted
  • Location: Twickenham or roving in Alps
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Twickenham or roving in Alps
On 12/9/2015 at 1:40 PM, pyrotech said:

jon

How do you see the ski resorts over the Alps and Bulgaria between now and new year.

Would any precipitation at those heights be of snow even if warm 850mb temps?

is that all we need (precipitation) or even at the heights of the resorts are temperatures a huge factor?

 

I was under the impression that from this time of year anything falling above 1800m in Alps and Bulgaria ski resorts would be snow, so all i would be looking for is precipitation, however we are seeing a very warm anomaly in temperature across Europe.

 

It has actually been known to rain as high as 2700m in the north-western Alps, even in January. 

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There are a few options when it comes to the charts for the blog

This is the current option - Freezing Level and precipitation

566d55eb50d23_Alps11DecEurope7Days.thumb

However we could have - 850Hpa Temps and Precipitation

566d55f29ddc9_Option1.thumb.JPG.355f97f4

An alternative is to have - 850HPa and Freezing Levels and with a separate chart for precipitation.

566d55f999acd_Option2.thumb.JPG.e7e81174566d55fd6e9c5_Option2b.thumb.JPG.d321f6b

In this case the precipitation chart could be optional, no point showing it if it is mainly dry.

 

 

Edited by J10
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Hi Julian

lots of folk look forward to this, myself included, I would opt for option 2.

It is always helpful to have F level and 850 mob temps along with ppl if it is needed

my area is predicted snow above 5000 ft mid week.

folk skiing in the area today on the web cams

 

http://www.bergfex.com/jungfrau-maennlichen-wengen/webcams/c2880/

bingo!

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
57 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Hi Julian

lots of folk look forward to this, myself included, I would opt for option 2.

It is always helpful to have F level and 850 mob temps along with ppl if it is needed

my area is predicted snow above 5000 ft mid week.

folk skiing in the area today on the web cams

 

http://www.bergfex.com/jungfrau-maennlichen-wengen/webcams/c2880/

bingo!

I agree John. I too like the suggestion of 850 and FL with ppl optional if precipitation in the forecast.

As you say, lots of lucky people enjoying themselves on the Jungfrau this lunchtime. Some good skiing to be had at height, but unfortunately there are lots of webcam shots of lower resorts and pistes that show how badly snow is needed at lower levels in the Alps.

Here's the Jungfrau (L) at nearly 3,000m compared with (R) the 'Front de neige du Pléney' at Avoriaz at 1,000m.

 

Jungfrau Sun13Dec.jpg

Avoriaz Pleney Sun13Dec.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
35 minutes ago, weathertoski said:

Latest GFS op run is an X-rated horror show for the Alps! 

Not good. Snow drought continues. Hardly any precipitation in these parts for weeks on end, just days of endless sunshine.  This will be a disastrous start to the season, at least the worse I have seen in these parts of The Eastern Alps.

 C

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

I'm assuming all areas of the Alps must be suffering, from the NW Alps to the SE? Difficult to see it changing for a good 10 days absolute minimum. I thought the start of last season was bad but this could be a lot lot worse, at least there was a good dumping just past Xmas from that trough that dropped South through the Western side of the region. Right now, apart from some sporadic frontal ppn, it looks incredibly dry and grim for the festive period.

Im off to the Portes du Soleils first week of Jan and whilst that isn't on the weather chart radar quite yet, one thing that looks like it will be missing is a decent base. Of course, plenty can change but this displaced to the east slug mid Euro high is exactly what a strong Nino often creates early winter so it is difficult to see any abrupt change for a while yet now it is firmly established.

Change can does and will happen though so all eyes on the 10-14 day period for any emerging trends...

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
1 hour ago, Norrona2015 said:

Not looking good for the Xmas/New Year period, Ski club GB update makes for painful reading. 

It really isn't a good situation in the Alps. Maybe with your location Norrona2015, you might be better off popping over to the Scottish resorts where at least there's a reasonable chance of seeing snowfall during Christmas week!

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

More disappointing reading - this report on the French Alps situation in the French press today. Here are some extracts, with translation by Google and improvements by me.

For the third consecutive year, winter and snow are struggling to settle on the mountains. Last year, while nearly half of the ski areas had not opened during the first week of the New Year holiday, the situation had improved late in the year, between Christmas and New 'Year.
This season 2015/2016 looks even more marked by the combination of lower snowfall and very mild. The resorts that offer skiing today are those who have benefited from falls occurred in late November and cold episode that followed, allowing them to make artificial snow provision. Still, with temperatures reaching 10 degrees this week at 1500m, natural snow is non-existent below 2000m (at best 1600m according to the slopes). With a deficit more pronounced in the Southern Alps. "We are in a trend of increasingly mild explains Frédéric Glassey. It is coupled with the persistence of a very strong anticyclone that sees rainfall track from the Azores to Ireland and Norway without going through the Alps.
And this fact is looking to be prolonged. For resorts it is double punishment. Not only it does not snow, but in addition they can not manufacture snow. 
The outlook? "Until December 21st, no sign of the arrival of the winter when cold and precipitation combine. The extended outlook is more uncertain but most scenarios of our models suggest maintaining a mild background until 28-29 December".

http://www.ledauphine.com/montagne/2015/12/14/meteo-enneigement-precaire-en-station

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

Every picture tells a story and here is the story from Kitzbuhel today. The panorama shots show the lack of snow:

Looking towards the Kitzbuheler Horn 566f243ee90c3_KitzbuhelWagstttBergstatio And view from the Kitzbuheler Horn 566f26c2a0666_KitzbhelerHornkpfl.thumb.j

But what has really impressed me is the fantastic job the resort teams are doing to keep pistes open for skiing. Without doubt, the snow cannons and the sheer determination of the pisting teams are keeping resorts operational. Hats off!!

The top of runs look in pretty reasonable shape 566f275cf03ff_KitzbuhelBrenbadkogel.thum566f277cafc97_KitzbuhelHollersbachMitter

But it's the sheer hard work going into keeping the bottom of the runs skiable!

First light and cannons blasting 566f28b4aa179_KitzbuhelBergbahn09.30Cann  Piste basher moves in 566f28c0447b1_KitzbuhelBergbahnPisteBash

 

Later this week is a concern as overnight temps are forecast to stay above freezing for pistes below around 1,200m. Fingers crossed that doesn't happen - the artificial snow-making operation is going to be critical for many resorts during Christmas holiday week. Sadly for me I'm off to the small ski resort of Feldberg in Germany with my family for Christmas. And just look at the webcam there today! That's at 1,000m - they won't recover from that this side of a good snowfall! So I'm going to have to tell my son-in-law that we're not going to get any skiing in next week. :(

Feldberg.thumb.jpg.b2e700d91984518f444dd

 

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4 hours ago, Norrona2015 said:

Not looking good for the Xmas/New Year period, Ski club GB update makes for painful reading. 

Indeed it does and here are the links with the summary below. The Ski Club full version also covers forecasts for Scandinavia, Scotland and North America.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/overviews/tips_full

http://www.skiclub.co.uk/skiclub/snowreports/overview/default.aspx#.Vm9A1l4vAsU

SNOW NEWS UPDATED 14 DECEMBER 2015

INTRODUCTION Despite the lack of natural snow and above average temperatures in the Alps, there was some decent skiing to be had out there on Monday 14th December. Certainly conditions are better than this stage last winter, but more snow is needed to ensure the pistes survive the busy Christmas and New Year period. The forecast is not looking that positive however, but at this time of year the unstable weather patterns can change quickly so keep doing those snow dances!

EUROPEAN WEATHER OUTLOOK The current mild and very unwinterlike spell of weather looks set to continue across the Alps this week as warm Atlantic air from the south west remains firmly in place. The only exception is likely to be on Wednesday, when some light snow may fall above around 1,800m in parts of the northern Alps. Sadly the bad news is that temperatures look set to steadily rise through the week, resulting in unfavourable snow making conditions (even at night) by the middle of the week. The air does look set to remain dry though, keeping the dew point low, which should not result in a huge deal of snow melt especially as the December sun is so weak. Signs of change have been appearing in the long-range weather models for Christmas week, however these are not included in all model runs so there still remains a good deal of uncertainty. A very similar spell of weather is predicted for the Pyrenees over the next seven days, with temperatures lying if anything slightly higher.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Twickenham or roving in Alps
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Twickenham or roving in Alps

The charts remain absolutely shocking for the Alps. Yes there will be a little snow at high altitude in the northern Alps tonight/tomorrow, but it won't change the bigger picture, and there is absolutely zero chance of significant widespread snow before Christmas - quite possibly into the New Year...

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

In the Vancouver Winter Olympics a few years back now they had to transport and dump tons and tons of snow due to the excessive mildness via trucks/airlifting due to the lack of snow is that conceivable for some of the snow parched resorts? Eastern Europe has some snow Russia is full to the brim lol! I suppose not..would be incredibly expensive and probably the money spent on it would melt away by how crazy mild it is..

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Posted
  • Location: Paris suburbs
  • Location: Paris suburbs
53 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

In the Vancouver Winter Olympics a few years back now they had to transport and dump tons and tons of snow due to the excessive mildness via trucks/airlifting due to the lack of snow is that conceivable for some of the snow parched resorts? Eastern Europe has some snow Russia is full to the brim lol! I suppose not..would be incredibly expensive and probably the money spent on it would melt away by how crazy mild it is..

Transporting snow from the inland BC to Cypress Mountain for a few runs was one thing and very impressive. Moving snow thousands of km to cover huge pistes is pure fantasy.

 

I'm going in a few weeks, I'm just glad I didn't choose to work a season this year like I'd been considering as it's around now that layoffs for the season start to happen. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
3 hours ago, Daniel* said:

In the Vancouver Winter Olympics a few years back now they had to transport and dump tons and tons of snow due to the excessive mildness via trucks/airlifting due to the lack of snow is that conceivable for some of the snow parched resorts? Eastern Europe has some snow Russia is full to the brim lol! I suppose not..would be incredibly expensive and probably the money spent on it would melt away by how crazy mild it is..

Hi Dan. In these desperate times, worth thinking outside the box - but as you say, too expensive. However, there are several resorts in the Alps that have 'snow stores' they operate at locations further up in the mountains where the high altitude and topography is conducive to snow accumulation. Then when poor snow conditions in the resort warrants, it is lorried into the resort. Probably not been enough snow so far this season for even that to operate!

So how about this idea from a resort in the Jura mountains in France. They store snow from the previous season under wood chips, allowing them to open their Nordic skiing course the following season, even if it's a poor start snow-wise. Here's an article about it:

Until the first winter offensive in the Jura, one discovers the snow from last season kept under wood chips
This is a process used for some years in the Jura, near the stadium of Tuffes. Snow
that fell last season is preserved under the wood chips. Thanks to the insulating properties of the wood, only 20% of the initial volume would be lost. The staff of the National Centre Prémanon began to remove chips for spreading white gold, so as to make a small loop of cross country pending the arrival of other flakes hopefully next weekend.

http://www.ledauphine.com/skichrono/2015/11/17/jura-la-neige-a-fait-son-apparition

56709293a6737_Jurasnowstore.thumb.jpg.15

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

well well, thanks BW, I have said many times on this forum I learn something new, not every day, but over the year. But this is a new one on me.

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
16 hours ago, weathertoski said:

The charts remain absolutely shocking for the Alps. Yes there will be a little snow at high altitude in the northern Alps tonight/tomorrow, but it won't change the bigger picture, and there is absolutely zero chance of significant widespread snow before Christmas - quite possibly into the New Year...

I'll admit that the situation looks rather dire at the moment and I've resigned myself to take whatever there currently is when I go to Austria on Boxing Day. Best we can maybe hope for is a cool down to allow the snow cannons to keep working. 

Then again, anything is still possible. I chose a couple of charts semi-randomly, taking tonights 18z GFS at t240 which happens to be Xmas day, and the the same date and time from the same run 3 days earlier. It's gone from this... 

gfsnh-0-312.png?18

To this... 

gfsnh-0-240.png?18?18

Now admittedly neither is that great for the Alps,  but they are very different. Who knows what the Xmas day charts will show in 3 more days time, nevermind beyond that. 

Edit: Not sure what's happened to the charts I posted, they were there earlier. I can't seem to see any GFS charts on Meteociel at the moment though so maybe a problem that end.

Edited by Ravelin
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Posted
  • Location: Twickenham or roving in Alps
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Twickenham or roving in Alps

As expected, a little fresh snow last night/today across the northern Alps, mostly above 1800-2000m but it won't really change the overall situation and there is zero chance of a proper return to winter before Christmas. Attached image is from Val d'Isere this morning where there was 3cm of new snow. It fell to 1600-1700m, a little lower than expected, due to the enclosed nature of the valley (the warm front couldn't quite "flush out" the relatively cold air in the valley bottom).

Val.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Paris suburbs
  • Location: Paris suburbs
15 hours ago, Ravelin said:

I'll admit that the situation looks rather dire at the moment and I've resigned myself to take whatever there currently is when I go to Austria on Boxing Day. Best we can maybe hope for is a cool down to allow the snow cannons to keep working. 

Another issue is that the extremely dry summer and autumn has left water levels low. Snowmaking, even if it's cold enough, is looking tough.

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Posted
  • Location: Twickenham or roving in Alps
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Twickenham or roving in Alps

So, drawing on some minor positives, we have 10-20cm of new snow above 2000m (locally a bit more) in the Austrian Alps this morning, at least away from the far south. 5-15cm at altitude in the northern Swiss Alps and 2-5cm (which fell on Tuesday night) in the northern French Alps. This won't really change the overall situation though and below 1700-2000m it was mostly rain. Staying mild until Christmas and beyond with no widespread/significant snowfall in sight...

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