C.E.T. forecasts for December 2015 (start of 2015-16 competition year)

[BornFromTheVoid]

Another month, more record breaking warmth to start?

 

The latest 06z GFS has the CET for the start of December as:

 

11.9C to the 1st (11.9: +6.1) [Record High: 12.1C]

12.3C to the 2nd (12.6: +6.8] [Record High: 12.2C]

11.1C to the 3rd (8.8: +2.8]

9.7C to the 4th (5.5: -0.6)

8.7C to the 5th (4.5: -1.6)

 

On no previous occasion has the the first 2 days of December averaged over 12C, so something to keep an eye on. However, with a front lying just on the north of the CET zone, a small shift southward could be enough to drop the CET much closer to average.

[Marcus71]

I'm going to say 5.7c, thanks.

[Captain Shortwave]

To be consistent with the winter forecast/guess I am about to do for the SE regional, I will lower my estimation for December from 6.2C to 5.2C. Still a little above average but I suspect whilst a cold pattern is unlikely, the increasing chance of anticyclonic weather developing during the middle of the month may temper the overall CET figure.

[The PIT]

A very mild month 6.5C a good +1.4C above normal

[Mark Bayley]

6.4c please

[Weather-history]

Hard to believe we are still waiting for a December with a CET of 5.9C

I'm going for 5.9C

[Mark Neal.]

5.6c for me, Cheers

[Costa Del Fal]

6c please.

[Rollo]

7.1 c for me please.

[damianslaw]

I'm going with 5.8 degrees. A very mild start but perhaps something colder mid month, rather mild second half for CET zone, I do think Scotland and N Ireland will see some colder conditions in the second half though especially late on.

[Roger J Smith]

7.4 with nasty wind storm potential near the end -- very windy around 25th-28th

[DAVID SNOW]

7.4 with nasty wind storm potential near the end -- very windy around 25th-28th

 

That will be the Turkey and sprouts, same every year

[chionomaniac]

With the start of a new yearly thread I think that I will have a go. 6.9ºC please

[BlueHedgehog074]

Want to upgrade my guess to 5.1*C please. Thanks.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6.5C, westerlies all month, with mixture of TM air and RPM air, zonal all the way, stormy as 'eck

 

WTF! only 6.5? would like to up it to 7.1C cheers!, westerlies all the way, could be on course for wettest/mildest Dec ever

[Captain Shortwave]

To be consistent with the winter forecast/guess I am about to do for the SE regional, I will lower my estimation for December from 6.2C to 5.2C. Still a little above average but I suspect whilst a cold pattern is unlikely, the increasing chance of anticyclonic weather developing during the middle of the month may temper the overall CET figure.

Well this decision has almost guaranteed a Bartlett December now hasn't it, good going me. 

Edited November 28, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Weather26]

7.4 with nasty wind storm potential near the end -- very windy around 25th-28th

This would take us into Boxing Day 1998 territory if it were to come off.

[Summer Sun]

My guess of 4.9c seems too low

 

I'm revising up to 6.3c

Edited November 28, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Costa Del Fal]

I am going to revise my estimation to 6.7c. Thanks.

Edited November 28, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[I remember Atlantic 252]

yes, not looking forward to RJS's windstorm, sure it will come off, but who knows dates maybe slightly later away from Xmas day

[ditch]

6.9 for me mild month overall with any cold spells short lived.

[Midlands Ice Age]

5.6C for me please.

 

MIA

[Relativistic]

4.8C please, although I would prefer -4.8C.

Edited November 29, 2015 by Relativistic Sting Jet

[BornFromTheVoid]

Going to up my guess to 6.4C

[BornFromTheVoid]

The 06z GFS has the December CET at:

 

11.1C to the 1st (11.1: +5.3)

11.1C to the 2nd (11.2: +5.4)

10.4C to the 3rd (9.0: +3.0)

9.0C to the 4th (4.8: -1.4)

8.3C to the 5th (5.7: -0.4)

8.2C to the 6th (7.2: +2.2)

8.2C to the 7th (8.4: +3.6)

8.0C to the 8th (6.5: +2.1)

 

We might not be breaking any records, but a very mild start nonetheless.

 

Having a look at the previous Decembers that were 8.0C or higher after the first week (of which there were 24), the average final CET is 6.1C (standard deviation of 1.3C), the maximum is 8.1C and the minimum is 3.6C.