C.E.T. forecasts for December 2015 (start of 2015-16 competition year)

[Roger J Smith]

I have the table ready to post in the competition scoring thread.

 

So far, a massive 101 entries, the median is 5.5 C and a majority between 4.8 and 6.4.

 

If you want an unreserved spot between extremes of 3.5 and 7.4 (also 9.0 and -0.7 are spoken for), then these have no entries yet:

 

7.3, 7.2, 4.6, 3.6

 

Look for the posting after midnight when all on-time entries are received. You can still enter after that under time penalties.

Edited November 30, 2015 by Roger J Smith

[March Blizzard]

I'll go for that vacant 7.2C, thanks.

[Froze were the Days]

Another fairly mild one but not as mild as November - 7.1c I'll plump for.

[Stef]

6.2 please.

[Don]

6.3C please. I do not expect to see any snow this month....

[joggs]

6 for me,a gradual cool down of the mild.

[Great Plum]

5.1c please

Edited November 30, 2015 by Great Plum

[Roger J Smith]

Table of entries ... will edit later ones into it as we go forward.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/page-6#entry3294144

 

107 entries now, median 5.6 C

Edited December 1, 2015 by Roger J Smith

[Duncan McAlister]

A mild 6.2 for me please.

[Roger J Smith]

1981-2010 CET normals and daily records

 

DATE ___ CET __ CET cum _____ MAX _______ MIN

01 _____ 5.8 __ 5.8 ______ 12.1 (1775) ___ --3.0 (1947)

02 _____ 5.8 __ 5.8 ______ 12.2 (1985) ___ --4.7 (1796)

03 _____ 6.0 __ 5.9 ______ 12.2 (1985) ___ --4.0 (1879)

04 _____ 6.1 __ 5.9 ______ 12.1 (1888) ___ --3.8 (1879,1925)

05 _____ 6.1 __ 6.0 ______ 12.6 (1898) ___ --3.7 (1844)

06 _____ 5.0 __ 5.8 ______ 12.3 (1898) ___ --5.5 (1844)

07 _____ 4.8 __ 5.7 ______ 12.3 (1856) __ --5.7 (1879)

08 _____ 4.4 __ 5.5 ______ 12.1 (1856) __ --5.4 (1807)

09 _____ 4.5 __ 5.4 ______ 11.8 (1934) __ --4.0 (1803)

10 _____ 4.3 __ 5.3 ______ 10.9 (1997) __ --4.5 (1784)

11 _____ 4.2 __ 5.2 ______ 12.6 (1994) __ --6.7 (1784)

12 _____ 4.2 __ 5.1 ______ 12.9 (1994) __ --8.5 (1981)

13 _____ 4.6 __ 5.1 ______ 11.6 (1918) __ --6.5 (1981)

14 _____ 4.4 __ 5.0 ______ 11.8 (1912) __ --5.3 (1878)

15 _____ 4.6 __ 5.0 ______ 11.2 (1985) __ --5.4 (1788)

16 _____ 4.6 __ 5.0 ______ 10.8 (1842) __ --6.6 (1859)

17 _____ 4.4 __ 4.9 ______ 11.6 (1904) __ --7.7 (1859)

18 _____ 4.4 __ 4.9 ______ 11.8 (2014) __ --7.1 (1859)

19 _____ 4.3 __ 4.9 ______ 11.6 (1993) __ --6.8 (2010)

20 _____ 3.7 __ 4.8 ______ 11.1 (1833) __ -7.0 (2010)

21 _____ 4.2 __ 4.8 ______ 11.4 (1971) __ --5.9 (2010)

22 _____ 4.5 __ 4.8 ______ 11.6 (1991) __ --6.8 (1890)

23 _____ 4.7 __ 4.8 ______ 11.8 (1991) __ --6.4 (1870)

24 _____ 4.7 __ 4.8 ______ 10.7 (1843) __ --6.9 (1870)

25 _____ 4.5 __ 4.8 ___ 10.4 (1824,1983) _ --10.8 (1796)

26 _____ 4.3 __ 4.7 ______ 11.0 (2011) __ --5.4 (1798)

27 _____ 3.9 __ 4.7 ______ 10.6 (1987) __ --8.4 (1798)

28 _____ 4.1 __ 4.7 ______ 11.5 (1987) __ --8.2 (1798)

29 _____ 3.9 __ 4.7 ______ 12.0 (1987) __ --4.9 (1874)

30 _____ 4.2 __ 4.6 ______ 11.0 (1834) __ --6.1 (1870)

31 _____ 4.2 __ 4.6 ______ 11.1 (1859) __ --7.1 (1783)

Edited December 1, 2015 by Roger J Smith

[m1chaels]

Ha, found you at last.

I am late, my excuse is that given the weather hasn't realised winter has started how am I supposed to.

Can't see any quick turnaround so even with if there were a cold second half we would only be average overall so 5.8 for me please.

[Evening thunder]

Having made a point to remember and not be late for entering into the new competition year I promptly forgot!

6.5C for me please.

[Corrigan87]

Early New Year resolution to take part in this thread and Im late! November has been atrocious but dont see much change coming

6.9 please

[Summer Sun]

9.3c to the 1st

4.5c above the 61 to 90 average

3.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 9.2C, while maxima look like being in the mid 12s, so an increase to 10.1C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

10.6C to the 3rd (11.7: +5.7) [Record High: 12.2C]
10.1C to the 4th (8.6: +2.5)
10.2C to the 5th (10.8: +4.7)
10.6C to the 6th (12.2: +7.2) [Record High: 12.3C]
10.1C to the 7th (7.1: +2.3)
9.7C to the 8th (7.2: +2.8]
9.4C to the 9th (7.3: +2.8)
9.4C to the 10th (8.9: +4.6)
9.6C to the 11th (11.5: +7.3)
 

Another very mild start on the cards. Only 5 previous Decembers managed to average above 9C to the 10th, the most recent being 2000.

[Roger J Smith]

This table was posted in November -- top CET values for the first half of December listed for 1-15 and also 1-16 so whichever way you want to define first half, this will give you the list, looks like 2015 will be on it as the days between the BFTV estimate of 9.6 on 11th to the middle of the month look to be at least 7 C on 12z GFS. Then there's a signal of much colder weather similar to what happened in November but if it lasts only that long and returns to mild, then it would be tough to get much below 7 C. If the cold digs in then it could go down to almost anyone's forecast value, in theory. Note the range in end-of-month values in this table:

 

WARMEST FIRST HALF OF DECEMBER CET 1772-2014

_____________________________________________________

 

Rank __ Year ________ CET 1-15 __ 1-16 (rank) ________ end of month (rank)

 

01 ____ 1898 _________ 9.15 _____ 9.03 (1) _________ 7.3 __ 9 (t)

02 ____ 2000 _________ 9.08 _____ 8.68 (4) _________ 5.8 _ 53 (t)

03t____ 1934 _________ 9.05 _____ 9.02 (2) _________ 8.1 __ 1 (t)*

03t____ 1918 _________ 9.05 _____ 8.96 (3) _________ 6.9 _ 14 (t)

05 ____ 1979 _________ 8.69 _____ 8.56 (5) _________ 5.8 _ 53 (t)

06t____ 1831 _________ 8.47 _____ 8.35 (7t) _________5.8 _ 53 (t)

06t____ 1948 _________ 8.47 _____ 8.35 (7t) _________5.7 _ 64 (t)

08 ____ 1956 _________ 8.41 _____ 8.41 (6) _________ 5.7 _ 64 (t)

09 ____ 2006 _________ 8.40 _____ 8.23 (11) ________ 6.5 _ 25 (t)

10 ____ 1900 _________ 8.38 _____ 8.33 (9) _________ 7.2 _ 11 (t)

11 ____ 1868 _________ 8.27 _____ 8.25 (10) ________ 7.2 _ 11 (t)

12 ____ 1953 _________ 8.25 _____ 8.11 (13) ________ 6.9 _ 14 (t)

13 ____ 1985 _________ 8.11 _____ 8.21 (12) ________ 6.3 _ 33 (t)

14 ____ 1852 _________ 8.00 _____ 7.86 (14) ________ 7.7 __ 3

15 ____ 1994 _________ 7.97 _____ 7.75 (16) _________6.4 _ 29 (t)

xx ____ 1857 _________ 7.70 _____ 7.81 (15) _________7.3 __ 9(t)

* tied with 1974 which was at 7.66 after 16 days.

note 1857 not ranked for 1-15 as there were several years ahead of it that did not survive the 16th to make that part of the table. The rankings on 16th represent the top 16 cases. Current estimate for 2015 is about 8.8 on 15th and 8.4 on 16th. The average change from 15th to 16th of these years was -0.11 deg but only two gained warmth, 1985 and 1857.

Edited December 2, 2015 by Roger J Smith

[Milhouse]

Goodness me! Ive never seen such an above average outlook. Very mild nights coming up but sadly associated with plenty of cloud during the day.

[Summer Sun]

10.1c to the 2nd

5.1c above the 61 to 90 average

4.3c above the 81 to 10 average

[Liam J]

If we don't see the temps dropping my guess will be well out! Thankfully we are only 3 days into the month... 

[Man With Beard]

5C above average - this is bonkers, once again. And looking at the forecast we'll be lucky to get below 10C at night, let alone daytime, for another WEEK! I thought 6.2C was sensible a few days ago but if it weren't for the penalty I'd be upping to 7.5C right now. If we got to mid-month at 9C, which let's face it is very possible, we would need a freeze-up just to get back to 6C.

Warmest consecutive November/December combination on the cards?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

On 02/12/2015, 11:56:21, Summer Sun said:

9.3c to the 1st

4.5c above the 61 to 90 average

3.5c above the 81 to 10 average

 

Craig Evans on course, yikes, I only went for 7.1C

[DAVID SNOW]

We are only 3 days in, give it time..........

[Summer Sun]

10.4c to the 3rd

5.4c above the 61 to 90 average

4.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

10.0c to the 4th

4.9c above the 61 to 90 average

4.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 8.5C