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November HO-PI - final chance to vote


Paul

HO-PI - November vote  

66 members have voted

  1. 1. How do you feel the upcoming winter is going to pan out?

    • 100% confidence of a cold winter
      4
    • 90% confidence of a cold winter
      0
    • 80% confidence of a cold winter
      3
    • 70% confidence of a cold winter
      9
    • 60% confidence of a cold winter
      8
    • 50/50 cold or mild
      13
    • 60% confidence of a mild winter
      5
    • 70% confidence of a mild winter
      11
    • 80% confidence of a mild winter
      7
    • 90% confidence of a mild winter
      2
    • 100% confidence of a mild winter
      4


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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

Here we are again, following on from our HO-PI votes in September and October, this is the final chance to vote before we collate all the numbers and see how everyone's gut feeling on this winter has changed over the last few months. 

 

Don't forget, this is just unscientific fun :D

 

This thread/voting will close at 23:59 on the 30th November. 

 

Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I've switched to a 60% chance of a milder winter, as you can't really ignore the signs. You can hope though!

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

im sticking to my guns and have gone from 80% sure of Mild winter to 100% confidence..i think with the strong El Niño weather pattern now setting up across North America it will be mild and zonal..may end up with a colder spring though.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

My earlier confidence of a below average Winter has gone. I had initially thought the colder Atlantic would have had an effect on reducing the power of the jet stream and at the very least take it on a more Southerly track. Unfortunately the colder Atlantic temperatures look like having zero impact.

 

Therefore we must look to the El Nino as being the main driver and current model projections show a typical El Nino signature and the PV is building up strength and setting up at home around Greenland.

 

With El Nino Winters occasionally delivering SSW's later in the season and some forecasters going for a SSW around mid January, we may see colder weather coming into the islands around the second week of February.

 

It would virtually impossible to get an overall below average Winter based on that, therefore I have gone for a 0%.

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Changed my vote from 50/50 to 80% chance of a mild winter, agree with some of the above posts re the super El Nino playing a very big part. 

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Posted
  • Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, cold, cold and errrr......cold. I am, unashamedly, a cold fan.
  • Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth

80% cold. Eternal optimist.

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Posted
  • Location: Longlevens, 16m ASL (H)/Bradley Stoke, 75m ASL (W)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Longlevens, 16m ASL (H)/Bradley Stoke, 75m ASL (W)

continuing with the 70% likely to be milder...

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Upped my vote from 70% to 80% chance of a mild winter. It is just a case of if we can develop a colder pattern later and when this happens.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

I think I went with 70% chance for colder than average, so I've stuck with that. A few things in favour of this occurring I believe so why not?

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

I have upped my chances from 50/50 to 60% chance of a colder winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Frost Sun
  • Location: Rotherham

50/50 overall.

 

December Wet and mostly mild until end of month.

 

January Very much on cold side with a fair bit of Snow especially in North and East.

 

February Getting off to a cold start but becoming much milder and eventually a bit drier.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

70% mild for me.

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