November HO-PI - final chance to vote

[Paul]

Here we are again, following on from our HO-PI votes in September and October, this is the final chance to vote before we collate all the numbers and see how everyone's gut feeling on this winter has changed over the last few months. 

 

Don't forget, this is just unscientific fun

 

This thread/voting will close at 23:59 on the 30th November. 

 

Paul

[Methuselah]

I've switched to a 60% chance of a milder winter, as you can't really ignore the signs. You can hope though!

[cheeky_monkey]

im sticking to my guns and have gone from 80% sure of Mild winter to 100% confidence..i think with the strong El Niño weather pattern now setting up across North America it will be mild and zonal..may end up with a colder spring though.

[mountain shadow]

My earlier confidence of a below average Winter has gone. I had initially thought the colder Atlantic would have had an effect on reducing the power of the jet stream and at the very least take it on a more Southerly track. Unfortunately the colder Atlantic temperatures look like having zero impact.

 

Therefore we must look to the El Nino as being the main driver and current model projections show a typical El Nino signature and the PV is building up strength and setting up at home around Greenland.

 

With El Nino Winters occasionally delivering SSW's later in the season and some forecasters going for a SSW around mid January, we may see colder weather coming into the islands around the second week of February.

 

It would virtually impossible to get an overall below average Winter based on that, therefore I have gone for a 0%.

[Liam J]

Changed my vote from 50/50 to 80% chance of a mild winter, agree with some of the above posts re the super El Nino playing a very big part. 

[simshady]

80% cold. Eternal optimist.

[Wynn D Woo]

continuing with the 70% likely to be milder...

[Captain Shortwave]

Upped my vote from 70% to 80% chance of a mild winter. It is just a case of if we can develop a colder pattern later and when this happens.

[gottolovethisweather]

I think I went with 70% chance for colder than average, so I've stuck with that. A few things in favour of this occurring I believe so why not?

[Mark Neal.]

70% confident of a cold winter i believe. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

obviously I voted for bottom one

[Allseasons-si]

I have upped my chances from 50/50 to 60% chance of a colder winter.

[Bradowl]

50/50 overall.

 

December Wet and mostly mild until end of month.

 

January Very much on cold side with a fair bit of Snow especially in North and East.

 

February Getting off to a cold start but becoming much milder and eventually a bit drier.

[Nick L]

70% mild for me.

[Paul]

Last day to vote in the HO-PI for this year