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Atlantic Storms Winter 2015/16


Liam J

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
44 minutes ago, -Bomber- said:

Yes I know but my point is 45-55mph is nothing to write home about and that is what most will experience. Nothing to batten down the hatches for

I agree those gusts are not really noteworthy, but also the Met can be quite conservative with wind gusts, the most recent example was Sunday just gone with Storm Clodagh, it wasn't until the morning a few hours before it's arrival did they update the warning with increased wind gust speeds but some locations still recorded gusts 10-15mph higher. Not suggesting that will happen again though, we'll just have to wait and see how the next 24hrs pan out with this fluid situation.

The upper limit of the gusts would be quite noteworthy with gusts over 70mph for the north west Friday night, and during Saturday for parts of Wales and N England with storm force winds possible in exposure and gusts over 70mph, but details need firmed up on. 

Edited by *Sub*Zero*
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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

The hi-res NetWx-SR model is predicting wind gusts inland over Ireland and Scotland of 60mph+ quite widely during Friday evening onwards,  to the lee of high ground locally over NE England and E Scotland 70-80mph.

nm128.thumb.png.5fdfe0a42c97bf85b1484d30nm129.thumb.png.d15d3cb21b8388706a306df9nm130.thumb.png.726be92aa4be604aba474febnm131.thumb.png.f2df1ee54f1ae65c6999fedc

 

Rainfall totals continue to look very worrying.

ac7.thumb.png.4dc60b5ef597e4d35df9b53ef1ac8.thumb.png.601a4abe18572cad7b730b18ad

 

 

Edited by *Sub*Zero*
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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Satellite image of today's developing low pressure which is producing some very heavy rain and quite windy conditions over Wales and the SW, darkness quickly approaching from the east. 

sat1.thumb.gif.c737708acf865685b827a107asat2.thumb.PNG.bcbb652d76dfddd96aee08663

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.

GFS overcooking things again perhaps? Even so it's been interesting to see models such as the JMA and Navgem keeping the zonal train alive next week for a couple of days now where as the ECM and GFS were keener to blow up the Euro High over large parts of the UK from Monday,it seems to me now that the GFS and ECM are both now backing away from that idea,at least for the early part of next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

12z GFS quite similar for Friday evening re wind gusts, maybe a touch higher approaching Western Ireland.

gfs373.thumb.png.277ef4da71a050a0171ec99gfs374.thumb.png.5b400a66de60979479faa7fgfs375.thumb.png.e7ebced7536450229046641

 

The zone of stronger winds with Saturdays system has edged northwards a bit to affect more of Ireland and into Central Scotland, along with higher potential wind speeds, the last few runs now have increased the wind strengths. 

gfs376.thumb.png.6fee81b4850b052d5ad0870gfs377.thumb.png.d47b656f87201d5276b27a9gfs378.thumb.png.8afbf5cd89bca38d76a2781

A snap shot of Saturday afternoon, 12z vs 6z, that shift northwards makes a lot of difference as parts of N Ireland have gone from 12-15mph to near 80mph! 

gfs379.thumb.PNG.10e911c5feed229d660e881

 

 

Edited by *Sub*Zero*
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Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, high winds, thunder, snow
  • Location: Upminster, Essex

Well it looks like as per norm that London and the South-East will miss the strongest of the winds, usually I'd be disappointed by this but considering I'm supposed to be venturing into town on Saturday for my girlfriends birthday I'm actually quite relieved.

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Very windy over Wales this evening with gusts of 50-60mph and a recent gust of 71mph @ Capel Curig - http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

12z UKMET showing 10m wind speeds in excess of 50kts approaching Ireland tomorrow afternoon. 

ukmo13.thumb.gif.d6162534bca0e912b89c592

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Snow and Ice warnings out from 18:00 tonight till 23:55

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1449100800®ionName=uk

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

I'm pretty impressed with the 42.5mph gust I've just recorded, that's no mean feat for this location. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Can't believe the intensity of the rain for the last few hours! Relentless.... 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
7 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

A guy with a beard and a fair few animals in tow has just passed my house........

Santa is early this year?!

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
7 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

A guy with a beard and a fair few animals in tow has just passed my house........

I hope he had them in an orderly 'two by two'..........

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
17 minutes ago, Pomeroysnow said:

Thanks for all the updates Subs, can I use it as an excuse to herself to bow out of Christmas shopping this weekend....

LOL... I've cancelled my Christmas shopping trip this weekend! It isn't looking good at all. 

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Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, high winds, thunder, snow
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
28 minutes ago, Pomeroysnow said:

It would have to be a tsunami for me to get out of it:nonono:

It would have to be Armageddon for me to get out of it!  Lol

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
45 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

Dartmoor doing a good job of eating most of the rain here. Stations currently at 13.4mm (east)  and 17.6mm (central), but just 0.8mm here.

If you to the radar you can see where all the rain is being dumped. Hardly any getting across here either and sticking like glue in Wales.

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