South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat, 6th December and Onwards...

[Dorsetbred]

42 minutes ago, khodds said:

And there is the possibility that it will of course track far too south and hit northern France, as we only know too well..

Ho hum 

[hooch5]

First Hail storm I have seen this winter, typical when your building outside!

[jtay]

2 hours ago, khodds said:

And there is the possibility that it will of course track far too south and hit northern France, as we only know too well..

Yeah, but then we'll stay on the cold side.

Don't worry, it'll all be fine.

[knocker]

The frequent moderate rain showers have cleared and now clear skies but still quite breezy.

[karlos1983]

18 hours ago, Mapantz said:

haha - I had the 18 million CP version of that. Funnily enough, I bought this just before xmas..

 

 

WANT!!!

[Mapantz]

A pleasant surprise.

[karlos1983]

@Mapantz what weather station do you have for WU?

[AWD]

5 minutes ago, AWD said:

Hi Knocker.

 

You're one of the few on here  who calls it straight down the line with little bias.  (Although somewhat "flashy" with the red pens now and again).

Looking at the Ops out to T144 then the ens for the time beyond that I'm struggiling to find evidence to suggest anything other than normal winter fare IMBY.  Key word being IMBY.

Any snowfall conducive airmass remains FI stuff for now and although the hemispheric pattern could evolve into something more noteworthy in terms of cold further downtown the line, that's all ifs and buts at the moment.

For southern England, I would summarise as getting colder with night air frosts and slightly below average daytime maxima next week with any PPN more than likely to be wet rather than white at this stage.  The possibility of a more pronounced colder phase in the extended timeframe but very uncertain with a slightly greater chance of a small rise in temperatures favoured instead, although nothing classed as mild.

What do you think Knocker?

Copied from the winter thread for Knocker as it is probably safer posting here.

[Mapantz]

22 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

@Mapantz what weather station do you have for WU?

It's a clone of the Ambient Weather WS-1001-WIFI station. It directly sends the data to WU. There's software to use, which you can view/change station data over your LAN, or you can buy a meteobridge to capture the data, to send elsewhere. I had so many problems with the Davis Vantage Vue, in the end i sold it. I've found this cheaper station to be more reliable.

I've also hacked the firmware on the console, to put on a different template.

Layout that comes with it:

Hacked firmware layout:

[William Grimsley]

19 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I had so many problems with the Davis Vantage Vue, in the end i sold it.

Which problems? I've only had to replace the battery 3 times in nearly 5 years and that's it.

[Karl83]

Just got my Netatmo Weather Station delivered today @Mapantz. The reviews seem pretty good. What are your thoughts?

[Mapantz]

Just now, Karl83 said:

Just got my Netatmo Weather Station delivered today @Mapantz. The reviews seem pretty good. What are your thoughts?

Yeah, it is good. There are some advisories regarding the outdoor sensor though. I would make a small stevenson screen for it- I used a nestbox, drilled angled holes on all four sides, made a roof with an air gap, painted the inside black, painted the outside white and added a PC fan to the bottom of it. It didn't cost me any more than a tenner! I get extremely accurate temp/humidity readings from it now. I've since purchased the rain gauge and anemometer (a bit costly) but I like monitoring the weather in overkill ways lol
Of course, the webpage layout and the app are really awesome with Netatmo- love the push notifications for various indoor/outdoor measurements, and the forecast accuracy isn't bad either.

[knocker]

59 minutes ago, AWD said:

Copied from the winter thread for Knocker as it is probably safer posting here.

I'm confused now but did reply in the other thread. Anyway.................

Hi AWD

Firstly I don't profess to be, nor am I, particularly knowledgeable in this area I just call it as I see it.  Essentially I think the pattern change to a colder regime the middle of next week is pretty much nailed on but the detailed evolution from then on is not obvious. We are currently looking at the upper trough in the southern States creating the lows zipping up the eastern seaboard bringing WAA up into western Greenland which is augmenting the Greenland and mid Atlantic high. Thrown into this mix is the upper trough away to the south west. I think the LP forecast to travel NE from this on the latest ecm will probably move into France and points east.

So what are we left with. The UK in a somewhat nondescript are between the cold air to the east and the cooler, but by no means mild to the west. So for a few days the UK will be subject to much colder regime with the prospect of snow in some areas although it's not obvious to me that any major falls are on the cards. After that I suspect the blocking to the west will become less influential after the 18th with a NW becoming W flow resuming with temps around average.

But hey what do I know and this is all speculation ten days down the line and could well be all change to the Bakerloo line after today's runs although I suspect they probably will not clarify things much.

And don't forget Sidney the squirrel is not hiding his nuts.

 

[Karl83]

5 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Yeah, it is good. There are some advisories regarding the outdoor sensor though. I would make a small stevenson screen for it- I used a nestbox, drilled angled holes on all four sides, made a roof with an air gap, painted the inside black, painted the outside white and added a PC fan to the bottom of it. It didn't cost me any more than a tenner! I get extremely accurate temp/humidity readings from it now. I've since purchased the rain gauge and anemometer (a bit costly) but I like monitoring the weather in overkill ways lol
Of course, the webpage layout and the app are really awesome with Netatmo- love the push notifications for various indoor/outdoor measurements, and the forecast accuracy isn't bad either.

Excellent! I will look into the Stevenson screen for sure. Thanks for that info. Cant wait to set it up!

[AWD]

Thanks Knocker.

The reason I reposted in here is because I was talking centric to our region along with the volitality of the winter thread.

Your post is very similair to my current thoughts.  I like a bit of cold weather in winter but I do like to keep my hopes around facts rather than fiction.

The westerly element to the upper prevailing winds is the core reason the true AM air doesn't get this far south, thus making it nothing more than standard winter fare for our region next week.  I stress to add that this is how it currently stands and obviously is open to change in this ever evolving situation.

Although not a true WB -NAO, the effects for us are very similar.

If your thoughts of any breakaway LP from the Azores trough more likely to travel across Northern France rather than something similiar to the 0z EC Det projection than this *may* prove the catalyst for something wintry across the W Country but with a mean upper flow W of North rather than E of North, we are always going to struggle to embed enough cold air to maintain true interest in that regard.

Anyway, a more seasonal pattern will emerge next week with some crisp AM/PM air to enjoy which is certainly more preferable than Decembers shenanigans.

With Thanks to Knocker above, the favourable concensus as things stand is for something colder & more seasonal to arrive next week but nothing out of the ordinary for January.  As ever detail to be analysed nearer the time.

[knocker]

Far more relevant at the moment it looks like being another wet weekend

[SNOW CRYSTAL]

Evening All

Well, having dipped in and out of the MOD thread all day, I am totally confused!!!!

I would be happy with "something colder and more seasonal", but would be delighted to see some snow after the snow drought of the last couple of years.

I think I will keep knocker's thoughts in mind, so as not to be disappointed, but I can't help secretly hoping!!!

I know it's only snow and there are far more important things going on in life but if it's your passion and it happens, it will stay in your memory bank forever and that's what becomes important in your own life as you get older. Enough of all that.

I know snow is so difficult to forecast but I'm still confused as to how long the up and coming cold snap is likely to last. Any sensible thoughts?

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, SNOW CRYSTAL said:

Evening All

Well, having dipped in and out of the MOD thread all day, I am totally confused!!!!

I would be happy with "something colder and more seasonal", but would be delighted to see some snow after the snow drought of the last couple of years.

I think I will keep knocker's thoughts in mind, so as not to be disappointed, but I can't help secretly hoping!!!

I know it's only snow and there are far more important things going on in life but if it's your passion and it happens, it will stay in your memory bank forever and that's what becomes important in your own life as you get older. Enough of all that.

I know snow is so difficult to forecast but I'm still confused as to how long the up and coming cold snap is likely to last. Any sensible thoughts?

You are not the only one to be confused after dipping into the MOD thread. In fact many have gone raving mad. The only sensible thought I have vis the cold snap is to keep an eye on the updates over the next couple of days as the evolution has not really been resolved. Not very helpful I'm afraid but I and others will no doubt post in here if, and when, the situation firms up.

[Frosty hollows]

I dip into the mod thread from time to time. I posted a couple of days back I had a gut feeling the weather would turn more seasonal from next Monday and was told to go away and collect facts which was amusing!! Lots of informed chat there, but lots way over my head and sadly a couple of really pompous people who still get it wrong despite access to the very latest tech but zero humility!Looking forward to getting the fur coats out. The snow boots are staying in the cupboard for now but I've got a sack of salt in which has probably scuppered any chance of snow!

[khodds]

21 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

I dip into the mod thread from time to time. I posted a couple of days back I had a gut feeling the weather would turn more seasonal from next Monday and was told to go away and collect facts which was amusing!! Lots of informed chat there, but lots way over my head and sadly a couple of really pompous people who still get it wrong despite access to the very latest tech but zero humility!Looking forward to getting the fur coats out. The snow boots are staying in the cupboard for now but I've got a sack of salt in which has probably scuppered any chance of snow!

I've just ordered snow boots  but only coz I had to throw my last ones out as they hadn't been used in so long they had gone mankymy snow shovel and salt are remaining firmly at the back of the garage at will put the final nail in the coffin if it goes the shape of the pear... 

[Mapantz]

I'm no ramper, and most of you know me well enough to know that I do enjoy the cold and snow (if it does arrive in my tropical residence)
I just can't get my head around the worrying and debate in the mod thread, over nuances such as T850's/WBFL at these sorts of time frames. To argue over precipitation from afar is one thing.. lol

If you enjoy, or are looking forward to something a bit colder, then next week is a bonus after what we've endured. After having a look at the ens for my region, I'm happy to see good consistency in the peturbs, out to day six at least. The min temps don't look mighty cold, but if you're further inland, it'll always get down to lower values. The max temps ranging around 5-7C, perhaps a touch lower in more sheltered spots.

 

Nothing particularly excites me as of yet, it looks like a typical Winter cold snap/spell- details are far too vague to be worrying about anything else right now.
I'm just going to enjoy some clearer nights, and hopefully plenty of blue-sky days

[William Grimsley]

Guys, is this just going to be another ordinary cold snap or are we expecting any snow at all? Mapantz doesn't mention any snow really. Was hoping to see some at least snow showers if not a widespread snow event.

[MrNooo]

The same here, been in and out of the Mod Thread for quite some time and yet am none the wiser especially after today. Anyone would have thought we are heading for serious cold/snow but apparently it would appear it will be no more than just a blip. The one saving grace being that those who have/are flooded out should get a respite from the deluge that has been the last 2 months.

No doubt we'll all know more re cold/snow early next week, but must say am looking forward to some cold crispy days/nights and a foot or 2 of snow would be perfection!!!

[festivalking]

4 hours ago, SNOW CRYSTAL said:

Evening All

Well, having dipped in and out of the MOD thread all day, I am totally confused!!!!

I would be happy with "something colder and more seasonal", but would be delighted to see some snow after the snow drought of the last couple of years.

I think I will keep knocker's thoughts in mind, so as not to be disappointed, but I can't help secretly hoping!!!

I know it's only snow and there are far more important things going on in life but if it's your passion and it happens, it will stay in your memory bank forever and that's what becomes important in your own life as you get older. Enough of all that.

I know snow is so difficult to forecast but I'm still confused as to how long the up and coming cold snap is likely to last. Any sensible thoughts?

Just checked on the BBC weather and at the moment Yelverton and dousland have light snow forecast for Wednesday. Bound to change mind!

[khodds]

Just a thought, what effect would the warm sea temperatures have on any cold snap? I want to say Lake effect  but my heart says they may warm us up as its been so warm

Edited January 7, 2016 by khodds