South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat, 6th December and Onwards...

[knocker]

No not too bad. Have to go for a dressing change and then discuss some blood test results later. Hopefully no probs. Probably turn out to be MOD thread syndrome.

Edited January 8, 2016 by knocker

[Dorsetbred]

3 hours ago, knocker said:

......if this actually pans out as currently predicted I'll cavort naked on Brown Willy.

Knocker.

Book, the date and time, this I got to see, at that altitude, I'll bring my mate the welder along too..

[Wynn D Woo]

No frost and no need to scrape the wind screen this morning, the wait for winter continues...

[Frosty hollows]

Frosty start here too. Scraped the car and crucnchy grass underfoot, though temp didn't fall below freezing according to MetO. Now bright and sunny after a sharp shower 8C. I personally would take this as winter!!

 

[knocker]

1 hour ago, Dorsetbred said:

Knocker.

Book, the date and time, this I got to see, at that altitude, I'll bring my mate the welder along too..

I'm afraid that it would have to be behind closed doors as I've been advised that the sight of my lean, septuagenarian body, might just be too much for the middle aged ladies of the parish.

[Mapantz]

A proper downpour in the midst here!

[Jayfromcardiff]

Not good being at home until 19th January when I start my new job for DWP. I'm literally glued to the mod thread lol and its all over the place in there the ups and downs! On the plus side it could snow on my birthday next Thursday.

[karlos1983]

I'm certainly one to get carried away sometimes (cold wise, sorry Knocker) but i always try and steer clear of petty arguments and digs in the Mod Thread. my word, it's like a kids playground in there today.  Oh to be a moderator..... no thanks. I guess opinions are like a certain bodily orifice, everyones got one. 

[festivalking]

I find the MO on the weatheroutlook is a bit less playground like. It still has its idiots but there are certainly less sweeping statements and personal digs. Like all MO forums as long as you know who the trusted and knowledgeable posters are you can easily steer clear of the rest.

[jtay]

Katie, Jess, Lily and Alice have come to the back door to enquire about the 12z.

[Stormyking]

Really Heavy shower earlier, skies looked pretty sweet behind, got a picture of more showers in the distance too.

 

[jtay]

27 minutes ago, jtay said:

Katie, Jess, Lily and Alice have come to the back door to enquire about the 12z.

...and this is just after I explained the turnaround from the UKMO @120.

[Frosty hollows]

Sunset from work this evening. Photo doesn't do the colours justice

 

[Frosty hollows]

40 minutes ago, jtay said:

...and this is just after I explained the turnaround from the UKMO @120.

Hahaha!!Mine are wallowing in the quagmire resulting from night before last's deluge. They know not to bother with the forecast until less than 48h ahead

[Evening thunder]

Blimey a proper frost this morning with a min of -1.6c, and a light rain shower when it was below freezing. Quite a local valley inversion though as can be seen from some of these pics, with it being much warmer at higher and/or more coastal stations. 

 

In other news, recently I have seen a flowing red campion, flowing cow parsley plants, and green leaves left on Hazel and Oak trees near here (not sure the Oaks were British native varieties.. but they should have lost their leaves), and Elm hedges. Also plenty of flowering daffodils of course.

Edited January 8, 2016 by Evening thunder

[Zephyr]

Hi everyone, happy new year. I haven't posted all that much because not a lot has been happening really in our part of the country has it? I still keep an eye on the thread though! Am hoping we all have a snowy 2016! I've been keeping an eye on the roller coaster of the MOD thread also all fun and games continue I see, I really do love this time of year!

[jethro]

Back from Cornwall tonight, home to drizzle and murk. Down there we got fairly lucky with the weather, only one really nasty spell of wind and rain and that was evening/over night on Wednesday. Nowt special for down there I'm sure but when you're perched on a cliff top on the north coast, my goodness does it blow a hoolie! Beautiful sunset last night at Cape Cornwall, what a gorgeous place that is. Clear, gloriously sunny day today, perfect weather for our scenic meander home via the tall ships at Charlestown and the drive through and over Dartmoor.

Snow down here his week? Maybe the odd flake but I'll be joining Knocker and dancing naked if we get anymore than that.

[fergieweather]

Bear in mind much yet to be established re developments next week, despite some weirdly hysterical/quasi-suicidal remarks otherwise. We continue to expect marked model swings in near-term. Importantly, note some incipient EC support for the UKMO assessment from this morning, which suggested potential MJO-driven shift could appear now away from Atlantic to Scandinavian blocking. This early notion *may* yet have legs. Neither EC32 nor GloSea5 strongly assist us here: given (interestingly) mixed/indeterminate signals (or effectively none at all, in a very vacant-looking set of EC32 parameters by later Jan!), which is in stark contrast to their more bullish prognoses across the winter weeks already past.

Cheers for now.

Edit: Clusters 1+2 of 12z EC 500hPa T+360 herein to illustrate UKMO rationale

Edited January 8, 2016 by fergieweather

[Zephyr]

5 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Bear in mind much yet to be established re developments next week, despite some weirdly hysterical/quasi-suicidal remarks otherwise. We continue to expect marked model swings in near-term. Importantly, note some incipient EC support for the UKMO assessment from this morning, which suggested potential MJO-driven shift could appear now away from Atlantic to Scandinavian blocking. This early notion *may* yet have legs. Neither EC32 nor GloSea5 strongly assist us here: given (interestingly) mixed/indeterminate signals (or effectively none at all, in a very vacant-looking set of EC32 parameters by later Jan!), which is in stark contrast to their more bullish prognoses across the winter weeks already past.

Cheers for now.

 

Thanks for your input Ian I have been wondering the past few days if you still post here and it's great to see you are.

[fergieweather]

Just once in a while direct to the W Country folk! Never again to model thread etc. Catch up soon as this saga gets clearer. 

[Kiwi]

11 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Bear in mind much yet to be established re developments next week, despite some weirdly hysterical/quasi-suicidal remarks otherwise. We continue to expect marked model swings in near-term. Importantly, note some incipient EC support for the UKMO assessment from this morning, which suggested potential MJO-driven shift could appear now away from Atlantic to Scandinavian blocking. This early notion *may* yet have legs. Neither EC32 nor GloSea5 strongly assist us here: given (interestingly) mixed/indeterminate signals (or effectively none at all, in a very vacant-looking set of EC32 parameters by later Jan!), which is in stark contrast to their more bullish prognoses across the winter weeks already past.

Cheers for now.

1 hour ago, jethro said:

Back from Cornwall tonight, home to drizzle and murk. Down there we got fairly lucky with the weather, only one really nasty spell of wind and rain and that was evening/over night on Wednesday. Nowt special for down there I'm sure but when you're perched on a cliff top on the north coast, my goodness does it blow a hoolie! Beautiful sunset last night at Cape Cornwall, what a gorgeous place that is. Clear, gloriously sunny day today, perfect weather for our scenic meander home via the tall ships at Charlestown and the drive through and over Dartmoor.

Snow down here his week? Maybe the odd flake but I'll be joining Knocker and dancing naked if we get anymore than that.

Hi Jethro, Marked model swings to be expected. Scandinavian blocking...possibly!!!

Are we to expect photos (of a suitably modest nature) of your naked fling around Knockers woodshed to be posted?

 

Edited January 8, 2016 by Kiwi

[Frosty hollows]

20 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Bear in mind much yet to be established re developments next week, despite some weirdly hysterical/quasi-suicidal remarks otherwise. We continue to expect marked model swings in near-term. Importantly, note some incipient EC support for the UKMO assessment from this morning, which suggested potential MJO-driven shift could appear now away from Atlantic to Scandinavian blocking. This early notion *may* yet have legs. Neither EC32 nor GloSea5 strongly assist us here: given (interestingly) mixed/indeterminate signals (or effectively none at all, in a very vacant-looking set of EC32 parameters by later Jan!), which is in stark contrast to their more bullish prognoses across the winter weeks already past.

Cheers for now.

Edit: Clusters 1+2 of 12z EC 500hPa T+360 herein to illustrate UKMO rationale

Thank you for a techy post which is neither patronising nor hysterical!!

[Mapantz]

What a treat for us in this thread!

[khodds]

Thanks Ian for your input..... In laymans terms, what does it mean... Sorry! I'm rubbish at figuring these things out! 

[khodds]

Ssshhhh... Don't tell the mod thread, they will all barge in!