South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat, 6th December and Onwards...

[katemart]

17 minutes ago, khodds said:

Thanks Ian for your input..... In laymans terms, what does it mean... Sorry! I'm rubbish at figuring these things out! 

Thank god somebody said it! Sorry, I have no idea if Ian's post is good or bad...?    

[bellanite]

Thank you Ian - We always appreciate your input. 

 

[Mapantz]

Yet another downpour here, almost up to 10mm for the day.

[Andy Bown]

27 minutes ago, khodds said:

Thanks Ian for your input..... In laymans terms, what does it mean... Sorry! I'm rubbish at figuring these things out! 

Getting colder but details uncertain.

Just a thought after viewing the radar ; tonight's set up would be potentially very thundery from May-September.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

12 minutes ago, katemart said:

Thank god somebody said it! Sorry, I have no idea if Ian's post is good or bad...?    

It sounds like ECM clusters v there own models , with no clear signal , although 'some ensembles' trending blocking to our north/northeast , but saying that all this is in the realms of fi , next week we still have the cold air coming and with low pressure around I'm sure there will be some of the white stuff for some !;)

[khodds]

Just now, khodds said:

2 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

It sounds like ECM clusters v there own models , with no clear signal , although 'some ensembles' trending blocking to our north/northeast , but saying that all this is in the realms of fi , next week we still have the cold air coming and with low pressure around I'm sure there will be some of the white stuff for some !;)

Thanks for clarifying for us

[Bobafet]

Nice to have your input in this thread Ian, we are friendly folk in here!!

on the IOW today has been bright with heavy showers, still hoping and looking forward to some more seasonal weather next week and beyond!!

[Snow shut work]

We are truly blessed I believe. I tell you what, you may learn bits and bobs in the MOD thread, but its so contradictive its unbelievable.

If it's not 546ft drifts in one area, that person will kick off, making everyone believe it. Some sort if bizarre cult.

If you get west/south west regional news, this is home.

West Country LA LA la ...........

Edited January 8, 2016 by Snow shut work

[katemart]

Thanks, Andy and SSIB. It does make me laugh on the Netweather FB when somebody asks whether it's going to snow in Leeds in 10 days' time. If they only knew...

[festivalking]

One is wondering when the cold stuff will arrive though. It was Monday but now looking like Thursday looking at the BBC weather app. But....David braine on spotlight suggests Tuesday that the cold digs in with wintery showers. 

[Dorsetbred]

Well I for one am glad that the MOD crew didn't have a wipe out effect on Ian. It has the ability to make many a good poster, pick up and walk.

now us folk in here are a lot more pleasant and seek to learn from those that can teach. Looks set fair for some more damp stuff over the weekend. Got to get out and scrub the concrete patio, it's green and slippery already this season.

[SNOW CRYSTAL]

 Let's hope it'll be white and slippery soon Dorsetbred!!!!  

[jethro]

2 hours ago, Kiwi said:

Hi Jethro, Marked model swings to be expected. Scandinavian blocking...possibly!!!

Are we to expect photos (of a suitably modest nature) of your naked fling around Knockers woodshed to be posted?

 

I think I still retain the dubious honour of being the first and only poster on Netweather to provide photographic evidence of snow streaking, once in a lifetime is enough for anyone so I pass the baton to Knocker.

[fergieweather]

32 minutes ago, festivalking said:

One is wondering when the cold stuff will arrive though. It was Monday but now looking like Thursday looking at the BBC weather app. But....David braine on spotlight suggests Tuesday that the cold digs in with wintery showers. 

Yes: UKMO modelling suggests WBFL down at circa 400-500m by 12z Tues, giving wintry potential over Dartmoor by then. But whilst some might myopically focus on 850hPa temps, they miss how the WBFL sequence varies greatly across parts of UK early-mid next week, complicated by both occlusion features (raising WBFL) and overnight radiative boundary layer cooling (lowering it). This sort of detail untrustworthy in current lower-res output of course (one reason GFS snow charts are waste of bandwidth, plus for settling prospects they don't account for depth temp as eg UKV does at closer range and at very high fidelity).  The net message is to expect considerable flux in forecast snow levels day-to-day, irrespective of 850hPa raw temp output. Anyway... we get ahead of ourselves. We need to get the colder conditions south first!

Edited January 8, 2016 by fergieweather

[knocker]

2 hours ago, fergieweather said:

Just once in a while direct to the W Country folk! Never again to model thread etc. Catch up soon as this saga gets clearer. 

Great news Ian, look forward to your input.

[festivalking]

17 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Yes: UKMO modelling suggests WBFL down at circa 400-500m by 12z Tues, giving wintry potential over Dartmoor by then. But whilst some might myopically focus on 850hPa temps, they miss how the WBFL sequence varies greatly across parts of UK early-mid next week, complicated by both occlusion features (raising WBFL) and overnight radiative boundary layer cooling (lowering it). This sort of detail untrustworthy in current lower-res output of course (one reason GFS snow charts are waste of bandwidth, plus for settling prospects they don't account for depth temp as eg UKV does at closer range and at very high fidelity).  The net message is to expect considerable flux in forecast snow levels day-to-day, irrespective of 850hPa raw temp output. Anyway... we get ahead of ourselves. We need to get the colder conditions south first!

Many thanks for the input. It really is one hell of a jigsaw puzzle is our weather!

[Frosty hollows]

41 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

Well I for one am glad that the MOD crew didn't have a wipe out effect on Ian. It has the ability to make many a good poster, pick up and walk.

now us folk in here are a lot more pleasant and seek to learn from those that can teach. Looks set fair for some more damp stuff over the weekend. Got to get out and scrub the concrete patio, it's green and slippery already this season.

*Puts away snow boots .Again*

[Jayfromcardiff]

God knows what's going to happen next week in regards to snowfall, the models are changing too much every run! I think it's guaranteed to be cold for at least a few days but I hope that it's not a brief cold spell and it's actually worthwhile.

I'd take a channel low and a foot of snow and not have snow for another few years any day.

 

[Mapantz]

Cold weather aside for a moment, I was intrigued by the latest output for rain totals over the next 24hrs for southern counties- possible yellow warning criteria perhaps?

[Vince Coombes]

4 hours ago, fergieweather said:

Bear in mind much yet to be established re developments next week, despite some weirdly hysterical/quasi-suicidal remarks otherwise. We continue to expect marked model swings in near-term. Importantly, note some incipient EC support for the UKMO assessment from this morning, which suggested potential MJO-driven shift could appear now away from Atlantic to Scandinavian blocking. This early notion *may* yet have legs. Neither EC32 nor GloSea5 strongly assist us here: given (interestingly) mixed/indeterminate signals (or effectively none at all, in a very vacant-looking set of EC32 parameters by later Jan!), which is in stark contrast to their more bullish prognoses across the winter weeks already past.

Cheers for now.

Edit: Clusters 1+2 of 12z EC 500hPa T+360 herein to illustrate UKMO rationale

Great post ,had wondered where you had gone ,a very valued member ,no spin saying it how it is.

[SNOW CRYSTAL]

Woken up to a couple of loud bangs and a few flashes. Wasn't expecting that. 

Was hoping to sleep late this morning but the pull of the MOD thread is too much for me. I'm gonna have to go over and see how many toys are on the floor. 

[festivalking]

Snap! Mind you I'm down stairs with a scared pup. Saturday supposed to be a lie in!

[Barbel]

Had at least 3 lengthy squally showers overnight. Really intense rain. Just now there is a thunderstorm rumbling round the Axe Valley - which I suspect will be flooded again when we can see at dawn. 

[Evening thunder]

Woken up by a torrential shower with hail at 6:15, then caught a flash of lightning as it moved off to the east. A max rain rate of 65.4mm/hr according to the weather station, and a daily total of 8mm so far.

I need to renew my Radar subscription.. but it seems the sale with 25% off ended yesterday.. gah.

[Andy Bown]

7 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Cold weather aside for a moment, I was intrigued by the latest output for rain totals over the next 24hrs for southern counties- possible yellow warning criteria perhaps?

Yes woken 3 times by torrential thundery style downpours. Rather fearing the first home football postponement for 3 years after we told the opposition it would be fine with just 'showers' overnight/today!