C.E.T. Forecasts for February 2016

[Gael_Force]

3 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Final figure looks to be 4.9.

Matt Taylor, you are a naughty boy.

At least, it quashes the suggestions, on some sites, the MetO were going to massage the figures to make it so.

[Roger J Smith]

For some reason, unable to edit the post with the comparisons to other winters, so here is the final version of that post

SEASON ___ MetOffice mean ___ 90 or 91 day mean

________________________________________________________

1868-69 ______ 6.77 (7.2,5.6,7.5) ___ 6.74

2015-16 ______ 6.67 (9.7,5.4,4.9) ___ 6.71

1833-34 ______ 6.53 (6.9,7.1,5.6) ___ 6.55

1988-89 ______ 6.50 (7.5,6.1,5.9) ___ 6.52

2006-07 ______ 6.43 (6.5,7.0,5.8) ___ 6.43

1974-75 ______ 6.43 (8.1,6.8,4.4) ___ 6.50

1685-86 ______ 6.33 (6.5,6.5,6.0) ___ 6.34

1989-90 ______ 6.23 (4.9,6.5,7.3) ___ 6.19

1795-96 ______ 6.20 (6.6,7.3,4.7) ___ 6.22

1934-35 ______ 6.13 (8.1,4.5,5.8) ___ 6.14

1997-98 ______ 6.10 (5.8,5.2,7.3) ___ 6.03

1733-34 ______ 6.10 (7.6,4.3,6.4) ___ 6.09

2013-14 ______ 6.07 (6,3,5.7,6.2) ___ 6.07

_________________________________________________________________________________

So this past winter lost out to 1868-69 on both the standard average of three monthly means and also on the average of all days. If Feb 1869 had been a leap year, the 1st of March that year had a mean of 6.3, this would have rendered both comparisons closer but no change in the order of finish (Feb 7.4, season 6.73 and 91-day still same as 90-day after rounding, 6.74)

[Summer Sun]

3 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Final figure looks to be 4.9.

Matt Taylor, you are a naughty boy.

0.2c out the closest I've got in a long time (5.1 was my guess)

Edited March 1, 2016 by Summer Sun

[The PIT]

Damn 0.6c degree out.

[BornFromTheVoid]

A few stats for February.

With a final value of 4.9C, February 2016 is the 108th mildest out of 358. It is 0.5C above the 81-10 average, 0.2C above the average of the last 30 years, 

Of the 29 days this month, 15 were above average (81-10), 1 was equal to average and 13 were below average.

Of the 15 above average .......................... ..................... Of the 13 below average
3 were in the top 25 .............................. ......................... 1 was in the bottom 25*
1 was in the top 5 .................................. ......................... 0 were in the bottom 5

 

The total downward correction in February was -0.15C, from 5.04C to 4.85C, with 20 days seeing drops and, 8 seeing increases and 1 with no change.

 

*The one bottom 25 day for February came from the 29th, where the lack of  days makes it easy to make the top or bottom 25, so it's not really significant.
 

Edited March 2, 2016 by BornFromTheVoid

[Evening thunder]

Blimey looks like I got it spot on 2 months in a row! 

[J10]

Results time -

With the CET confirmed at 4.9c,

Monthly -> jvenge, ditch and Evening thunder all got it spot on.

Seasonal -> The winner of this comp was Evening thunder who got both January and February 16 correct.
BlueSkies_do_I_see and BornFromTheVoid were 2nd and 3rd respectively.

Overall-> The current 1-2-3 is the same as the Seasonal result, Evening thunder (1st) BlueSkies_do_I_see (2nd) and BornFromTheVoid (3rd)

Stats -> Later entries did better with a correlation of -0.31.

Reports ->
PDF File -> Feb 2016 CET New.pdf
Excel File -> Feb 2016 CET New.xlsx

in the event of any errors, or if you changed your entry name, and I have not picked this up, please let me know.

Thanks again to Roger for helping compile the figures.

Edited March 2, 2016 by J10