C.E.T. Forecasts for February 2016

[Daniel*]

This is a tough one definitely the coldest month of the winter by a big margin I feel.

2.8C please 

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

It's going to be mild, then cold, then mild!  4.8C

[Mr Maunder]

I'll go for 4.1c.

A mixed month with perhaps a week of winter weather.

MM

[mark4]

Was seriously considering sticking with the same punt as January, but going very slightly higher at 5.7C

[DAVID SNOW]

1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

This is a tough one definitely the coldest month of the winter by a big margin I feel.

2.8C please 

The temptation is there for sure dan..............

[Daniel*]

6 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

The temptation is there for sure dan..............

Very much so, considering one gent went with my figure I'll go down 0.2 taking that to 2.6C.

I do think March could be really quite cold rivalling 2013...outside the optimum time for lowland snow but it can deliver, just need very good synoptics which I think will be induced by an eventual split in PV implying cold arctic air bottled in poles will spill to our latitudes. The split in the polar vortex on 12z albeit not guaranteed, makes me reminisce of Feb 2009 that very quickly got the ball rolling. (I have not viewed the 18z yet). 

[Weather-history]

3.6

[Relativistic]

Just noticed an interesting run of Februarys from 1698 to 1740. For these 42 years not one February recorded a CET of below 2C. Three however managed exactly 2C (1709, 1711, 1721), but nothing could beat that. The current run of >2C Februarys started in 1991 (1.5C), so we will have to go another 17 years to break the current 42 year record. Let's hope 2016 is the year that puts an end to the current run!

Edited January 30, 2016 by Relativistic Sting Jet

[Dancerwithwings]

A cold snowy spell around mid month and would love it to carry on, but it will end up mild methinks

4.0c

[BornFromTheVoid]

Below is the Febraury CET from 1659-2015 in blue, the 30 year average in red and the linear trend in black

The CET this month is likely to finish somewhere between 5.3C and 5.8C. The average February following Januarys in that range is 4.6C

The linear trend for the whole record is +0.29C per century. Following this trend gives a February CET of 4.4C.
The linear trend since 1850 is +0.13C per century. Following this trend gives a February CET of 4.2C.
The linear trend since 1950 is +2.50C per century. Following this trend gives a February CET of 5.0C.
The linear trend over the last 50 years is +3.01C per century. Following this trend gives a February CET of 5.1C.
The linear trend over the last 30 years is +2.65C per century. Following this trend gives a February CET of 5.1C.

The current 30 year average of 4.59C is the mildest on record, and as the cold February values of the mid 80s are now leaving it, a few mild February's in the next few years could send the 30 year average up toward 5.0C.

[Corrigan87]

4.7C please. I think we might flip flop this month between very mild and very cold, making it fairly average overall

[Mark Bayley]

4.2c please 

[snowray]

5.2c for me please.

[ditch]

4.9 me thinks.

[Man With Beard]

Quote

Sorry guys, it hasn't quite gone the way I expected a couple of days ago - please put me back up to 4.5C

 

[stewfox]

5.1c

[ThundersnowDays]

4.3 please

[Midlands Ice Age]

Will go for something cool. How about 4.8C?

[easy-oasy]

3.7 please

[mulzy]

4.3C please

[jimben]

3.6c

 

Edited January 31, 2016 by jimben

[Stationary Front]

4.4 please

[Norrance]

4.5C for me please

[Chris.R]

I'll go with 3.8c, thanks. 

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

3.4c please