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C.E.T. Forecasts for February 2016


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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Current GFS has the CET at about 7.6C to the 5th (2.8C above the 81-10 average) and 6.3C to the 9th (1.6C above the 81-10 average). So a cooling trend after a very mild first few days.

Given the hints at colder weather mid month, I'll go with 4.8C for my guess

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Still very active Atlantic in place but looking like less in the way of Tm slots as the month progresses so I'll plump for 5.2c

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

If January ends up around 5.5 with a cold spell in the middle, where does that leave us for this month? I see Fergie is saying back to zonal later in the month and the cold forecast for mid month is no great shakes in terms of upper temperatures.

I'll go for a repeat 5.5c for February.

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

Another milder than average month, finishing off the warmest winter on record.

5.3C

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

I'll go with 5.2C please.  With no sustained cold looking likely for February, winter 2015/16 looks to be the mildest on record.  With 3 duffers in a row, the winter period 2008-2013 is now just a distant memory and things seem worse than ever........ :(

 

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Think I will revise to 5.8c please. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

6.1ºC please

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

For what it's worth, GFS has been suggesting we'll be not far off 6*C by mid-month. An anomaly of more than +2*C which is noteworthy despite the model's mishaps with the MJO which is probably skewing things a bit toward the zonal side.

With the SSW still a possible player, this is one of those months where the difference between the most likely path and one that's less likely but still very much on the cards is in the order of several degrees Celsius for the final CET. 

I'm going to go with an MJO-driven end to the month bringing temps unnervingly close to the threshold that we need to stay above in order to score a record-high winter CET... how does 5.2*C sound? :whistling:.

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Posted
  • Location: Dunstable 446ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: cold with frost & snow in winter; hot and dry in summer
  • Location: Dunstable 446ft ASL

I hope I am massively over estimating the CET value for February but I see nothing to suggest anything other than an above average month. Sadly I think this is likely to result in the warmest recorded winter in the UK. My Guess : 6.2c. Very depressing.

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

I'll go with a 5.9c. It's looking very zonal into the new month so night time temps should be particularly mild. Also I fancy a seriously mild end to Feb. I can see the euro high reasserting itself  and some records going in the last week.

maybe a 'rather cold' week mid month but pretty much zero chance of any deep cold IMHO.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

I'll go with 4.8 degrees, would love to go lower but it looks a very mild start unfortunately. Hoping for a drier colder period mid month and fingers crossed we don't see the atlantic return.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
38 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

4.5.

Not tempted enough.

A wise call David.

I'm relying on severe cold taking hold ideally before mid month to really drag down CET & this has to start being seen in the model output ASAP. 

The sensible side of me is going for 4.6C hey ho. I'll refrain myself from making any changes sticking with 2.6C, which is hmmm.  

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