C.E.T. Forecasts for February 2016

[Summer Sun]

6.8c to the 10th

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average

2.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

6.5c to the 11th

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average

1.9c above the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

CET set to tumble over the coming days, suspect we won't be too far off the 4's in a week's time, but still a high likelihood we will end up above the CET average.

What do we have to produce to record the mildest winter on record? - (wish I haven't had to ask this... hopefully never again..)

[Weather-history]

28 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

CET set to tumble over the coming days, suspect we won't be too far off the 4's in a week's time, but still a high likelihood we will end up above the CET average.

What do we have to produce to record the mildest winter on record? - (wish I haven't had to ask this... hopefully never again..)

Something around 5.5  

 

 

[Gustywind]

Going to be very close I reckon, a half decent mild spell in the final week should do it.

[Roger J Smith]

Okay, here are the detailed answers to the warmest winter questions. The Met Office list of seasonal values is found here for your information:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/ssn_HadCET_mean_sort.txt

and it should be noted from the start that convention dictates that the seasonal average be the straight average of the three months despite the fact that in every season one month has fewer days than two others or in the case of autumn one month has more days than two others. I have the daily records on a database and so I can generate alternate lists that just average out the 90, 91 or 92 days of any given season. The differences are miniscule in any case. However in winter they could be a bit larger than in other seasons especially when February is not a leap year, because then it only has 90% of the number of days that the other two months have (close approximation). This year it has 93.6% as many days. But it should be noted that the mildest winter with a leap year February before this one was currently 8th place 1795-96. The second mildest leap year winter was 2007-08 currently tied for 26th. So having leap year day, theoretically milder than any other February day (although not in actual values) does not seem to do much good (or harm).

So without too much more twaddle about weighting, these are the tables of top twelve seasonal values the official way (the only ones to exceed 6.0) with the three monthly averages listed, and then the weighted-by-days method, together with what it would take for 2015-16 to equal these values.

SEASON ___ MetOffice mean ___ 90 or 91 day mean ___ Feb 2016 needs this to tie

________________________________________________________ (in brackets to tie 91 day mean)

2015-16 ______ ?? ?? (9.7,5.4,??) ____ 7.4 to date (73d)

1868-69 ______ 6.77 (7.2,5.6,7.5) ___ 6.74 ___________ 5.2 ____ (5.0)

1833-34 ______ 6.53 (6.9,7.1,5.6) ___ 6.55 ___________ 4.5 ____ (4.4)

1988-89 ______ 6.50 (7.5,6.1,5.9) ___ 6.52 ___________ 4.4 ____ (4.3)

2006-07 ______ 6.43 (6.5,7.0,5.8) ___ 6.43 ___________ 4.2 ____ (4.0)

1974-75 ______ 6.43 (8.1,6.8,4.4) ___ 6.50 ___________ 4.2 ____ (4.2)

1685-86 ______ 6.33 (6.5,6.5,6.0) ___ 6.34 ___________ 3.9 ____ (3.7)

1989-90 ______ 6.23 (4.9,6.5,7.3) ___ 6.19 ___________ 3.6 ____ (3.2)

1795-96 ______ 6.20 (6.6,7.3,4.7) ___ 6.22 ___________ 3.5 ____ (3.3)

1934-35 ______ 6.13 (8.1,4.5,5.8) ___ 6.14 ___________ 3.3 ____ (3.1)

1997-98 ______ 6.10 (5.8,5.2,7.3) ___ 6.03 ___________ 3.2 ____ (2.8)

1733-34 ______ 6.10 (7.6,4.3,6.4) ___ 6.09 ___________ 3.2 ____ (3.0)

2013-14 ______ 6.07 (6,3,5.7,6.2) ___ 6.07 ___________ 3.1 ____ (2.9)

 

Meanwhile, the warmest November to February average Met Office style would be 1994-95 when November was 10.1 and the mean was 6.95. To tie that, February 2016 must average only 3.2. At 5.0, the average would be 7.4 C. To tie second place 2006-07 (Nov 8.1) requires only 2.8 C this month. Third place 1997-98 (Nov 8.4) requires merely 2.1 for a tie, and fourth place 1833-34 needs 1.9 for a tie.

Now, statistical quirks -- the warmest December will now obviously qualify for the top 12 list and the two previous record holders were in the list at tied 4th (1974) and then 9th (1934). But the warmest January (1916) and February (1779) were part of winters that ranked 32nd (1915-16 mean 5.53) and tied 26th (1778-79 mean 5.63). The warmest November while anchoring the warmest Nov-Feb was part of the tied 13th warmest winter (5.90, tied with 1876-1877 and 1942-1943).

Finally, if this month averaged 5.3 to squeak past 1868-69 then as a Jan-Feb combination at 5.35, it would rank only tied for 44th and behind even 1662. So the "remarkable warmth" of the past four months is almost all down to Nov-Dec being record warm, all January and February have had to do is to provide some rather pedestrian warmth, imagine blending Jan-Feb 1869 with the Nov-Dec of 2015.

Edited February 12, 2016 by Roger J Smith

[Catacol]

4 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

 imagine blending Jan-Feb 1869 with the Nov-Dec of 2015.

No thanks. This winter has made me quite miserable enough....

[Roger J Smith]

At least it keeps getting colder. Relatively speaking.

As February is a relatively short month, I will post a March forecast thread on the 17th instead of the 20th, and it will be back in the usual forum, not this one, but a link will be posted in this forum so nobody misses the fun. I've been reading that a MSW event may be underway and that may mean a colder March like in 2013.

Anyway, something noteworthy happened this winter, so that beats last winter which was just about the biggest dud of all winters ever.

[reef]

21 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Something around 5.5 

Its looking quite likely aswell. A mean of 4.3C over the remaining 19 days of February would see us record the mildest winter on record (excluding any adjustments of course).

[Summer Sun]

6.3c to the 12th

2.1c above the 61 to 90 average

1.7c above the 81 to 10 average

[iapennell]

I will plump for a CET of 5.0C; this would be in keeping with the prediction that I made of February being a fairly strong Westerly month but with some sharp cold from the North West a couple of times during the month (btw the east winds at present have taken one a bit by surprise!) 

[Roger J Smith]

It looks very close in the race for first place, see my post yesterday which establishes that 5.2 will tie this winter with 1868-69 meaning 5.3 or higher will establish a new seasonal record. For the unofficial record average of all days in the season, we need 5.1 to beat out the 5.0 that 1868-69 managed (0.2 lower because February 1869 contributed only 28 of 90 days). We went into this month with a 2.1 total degree-month lead on that winter and an 0.2 lead on the winter of 1974-75 (15.1 to 14.9, on average therefore 0.1 ahead) which finished off with 4.4 in February.

I just looked at the first half of the 12z run and the second half of the 06z GFS run, noting that there wasn't a huge change in appearance from the comparable panels mid-run, and the overall appearance of that guidance would suggest a finish very close to 5.3 so we may even have to wait for the end of month revision to know if the season "won" (I realize almost everyone will say lost) or not. It would be ironic if a colder mean on leap year day sunk the attempt.

[Froze were the Days]

On 12 February 2016 at 0:29 PM, Weather-history said:

Something around 5.5

 

 

Incredible! 2013-14, 2006-07 and now this the BIG daddy. As I mentioned it's all relatively speaking and we've had mild winters decades even centuries ago but as mild as this?

Edited February 13, 2016 by Froze were the Days

[Roger J Smith]

Worth noting however that Jan-Feb are not likely to be very remarkable in and of themselves. This is a list of winters that would produce a warmer Jan-Feb than this year if we record 5.6 C to average 5.5 C ...

rank ___ YEAR ____ Jan _ Feb ___ mean ___ what Feb 2016 needs to tie

01 _____ 1990 ____ 6.5 _ 7.3 ____ 6.90 _____ 8.4

02 _____ 1869 ____ 5.6 _ 7.5 ____ 6.55 _____ 7.7

03 _____ 1733 ____ 6.9 _ 6.0 ____ 6.45 _____ 7.5

04 _____ 2007 ____ 7.0 _ 5.8 ____ 6.40 _____ 7.4

04 t____ 1834 ____ 7.1 _ 5.6 ____ 6.35 _____ 7.3

04 t____ 1846 ____ 6.3 _ 6.4 ____ 6.35 _____ 7.3

07 _____ 1686 ____ 6.5 _ 6.0 ____ 6.25 _____ 7.1

07 t____ 1998 ____ 5.2 _ 7.3 ____ 6.25 _____ 7.1

07 t____ 2002 ____ 5.5 _ 7.0 ____ 6.25 _____ 7.1

10 _____ 1921 ____ 7.3 _ 4.8 ____ 6.05 _____ 6.7

11 t____ 1796 ____ 7.3 _ 4.7 ____ 6.00 _____ 6.6

11 t____ 1989 ____ 6.1 _ 5.9 ____ 6.00 _____ 6.6

11 t____ 2008 ____ 6.6 _ 5.4 ____ 6.00 _____ 6.6

14 t____ 1872 ____ 5.0 _ 6.9 ____ 5.95 _____ 6.5

14 t____ 2014 ____ 5.7 _ 6.2 ____ 5.95 _____ 6.5

16 _____ 1884 ____ 6.5 _ 5.3 ____ 5.90 _____ 6.4

17 t____ 1702 ____ 5.0 _ 6.7 ____ 5.85 _____ 6.3

17 t____ 1759 ____ 5.9 _ 5.8 ____ 5.85 _____ 6.3

17 t____ 1877 ____ 5.5 _ 6.2 ____ 5.85 _____ 6.3

20 t____ 1898 ____ 6.6 _ 4.8 ____ 5.70 _____ 6.0

20 t____ 1926 ____ 4.6 _ 6.8 ____ 5.70 _____ 6.0

22 t____ 1882 ____ 5.2 _ 6.1 ____ 5.65 _____ 5.9

22 t____ 1903 ____ 4.2 _ 7.1 ____ 5.65 _____ 5.9

22 t____ 1916 ____ 7.5 _ 3.8 ____ 5.65 _____ 5.9

22 t____ 1974 ____ 5.9 _ 5.4 ____ 5.65 _____ 5.9

22 t____ 1995 ____ 4.8 _ 6.5 ____ 5.65 _____ 5.9

27 t____ 1761 ____ 5.4 _ 5.8 ____ 5.60 _____ 5.8

27 t____ 1923 ____ 5.6 _ 5.6 ____ 5.60 _____ 5.8

27 t____ 1920 ____ 5.2 _ 6.0 ____ 5.60 _____ 5.8

27 t____ 1949 ____ 5.5 _ 5.7 ____ 5.60 _____ 5.8

27 t____ 1975 ____ 6.8 _ 4.4 ____ 5.60 _____ 5.8

27 t____ 2000 ____ 4.9 _ 6.3 ____ 5.60 _____ 5.8

33t_____ 1662 ____ 5.0 _ 6.0 ____ 5.50 _____ 5.6

33t_____ 1822 ____ 4.7 _ 6.3 ____ 5.50 _____ 5.6

33t_____ 1928 ____ 5.2 _ 5.8 ____ 5.50 _____ 5.6

33t_____ 1943 ____ 4.9 _ 6.1 ____ 5.50 _____ 5.6

If you count up the years before 1900, it's surprisingly high -- 16 out of these 37. Another 9 came in the first half of the 20th century. So the recent burst of activity has had its analogues in previous epochs.

 

[Gustywind]

Yeah if we break the record, the odds for which have improved this morning, then it will almost wholly be due to December.

I hope it will be a long time before we see another December like 2015, but with our warming climate, who knows.

[Summer Sun]

6.1c to the 13th

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average

1.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 0.9C while maxima look like reaching the low 5s, so a drop to 5.9C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

5.6C to the 15th (2.1: -1.7)
5.4C to the 16th (1.9: -1.8)
5.3C to the 17th (3.9: +0.2)
5.2C to the 18th (3.1: -0.7)
5.2C to the 19th (5.2: +1.2)
5.4C to the 20th (8.9: +5.1)
5.6C to the 21st (9.5: +5.4)
5.6C to the 22nd (5.9: +1.7)
5.7C to the 23rd (7.9: +3.6)
5.7C to the 24th (6.3: +1.6)

After a mid month dip, it seem a return to well above average conditions looks likely and with it the chances of a below average month begins to disappear.
 

[reef]

On ‎10‎/‎02‎/‎2016 at 1:10 PM, reef said:

It seems to be the usual story this winter where any projected cold is downgraded and is heavily outweighed by mild previous or after.

I wouldn't be surprised if we lose the lower minima and end up mid-5s by the 20th.

And as predicted it has indeed happened! So far the lowest mean min in the CET zone is a mere -0.8C on the 11th.

Warmest winter on record looking extremely likely now.

[Weather26]

And (Just as i thought it would) Wednesday/Thursday looks like turning into a non snow event if the week ahead forecast on BBC1 an hour ago was anything to go by.

Edited February 14, 2016 by Weather26

[DAVID SNOW]

On ‎06‎/‎02‎/‎2016 at 0:29 PM, BornFromTheVoid said:

Minimum today is 4.9C while maxima look like being around 10, so 7.7C or 7.8C are likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

7.6C to the 7th (6.9: +2.2)
7.5C to the 8th (6.3: +1.9)
7.2C to the 9th (4.9: +0.9)
6.9C to the 10th (4.8: +0.7)
6.8C to the 11th (5.6: +1.3)
6.4C to the 12th (1.6: -3.1)
6.0C to the 13th (1.0: -3.1)
5.8C to the 14th (4.0: +0.6)
5.6C to the 15th (2.9: -0.9)
 

A cooler outlook in the medium term, but still likely to be more than 1C above average by mid-month.

No idea why this quote has popped up, but anyway,

Just my opinion, but I very much doubt the record will be broken this time.

[Roger J Smith]

Do you mean the winter (DJF) record, David? 5.3 will do the business there. The odds look to be about 60-40.

Or do you mean February? If so, very much agree, we won't finish anywhere near 7.9 (1779).

 

[DAVID SNOW]

8 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Do you mean the winter (DJF) record, David? 5.3 will do the business there. The odds look to be about 60-40.

Or do you mean February? If so, very much agree, we won't finish anywhere near 7.9 (1779).

 

The winter (DJF) Roger.

[Summer Sun]

5.9c to the 14th

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average

1.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is -0.2C while maxima look like reaching the mid 5s, so a drop to 5.7C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

5.5C to the 16th (2.0: -1.7)
5.3C to the 17th (3.3: -0.4)
5.2C to the 18th (3.0: -0.8)
5.1C to the 19th (3.8: -0.2)
5.2C to the 20th (6.8: +3.0)
5.5C to the 21st (11.0: +6.9) [Record High: 10.6C]
5.5C to the 22nd (4.8: +0.5)
5.4C to the 23rd (4.9: +0.6)
5.4C to the 24th (5.4: +0.7)
 

[Roger J Smith]

11 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

The winter (DJF) Roger.

I thought that was what you meant, but there had been other concepts being discussed too -- it's looking very close at this point, rather hoping good old 1868-69 holds on as they played all three holes of the playoff fairly well whereas this winter more or less had a hole in one on December and bogeyed January and perhaps February too. I guess if it turns really cold on the 29th it could be a Jean vandeVelde sort of finish.