SPRING 2016: UNSETTLED

[March]

7 hours ago, John Badrick said:

I think if Ian Ps mostly cold spring forecast plays out (which is now basically the opposite to the big guns)  Hopefully more people will give him the respect he deserves. I am hoping it does play out the way he has called it, not because I want a cold spring, but because it may prove we have our very own a top class forecaster on this forum

The guy writes like he works for the Express and doesn't even make many predictions, no where near enough to verify and disappears for months on end. Why would you want him as the top class forecaster of the forum? Do you have no respect for the profession?  

[Hocus Pocus]

1 hour ago, March said:

The guy writes like he works for the Express and doesn't even make many predictions, no where near enough to verify and disappears for months on end. Why would you want him as the top class forecaster of the forum? Do you have no respect for the profession?  

Err, because he's the only forecaster with a 100% record over the last few years since he started posting. Just because he's not forecasting  jam tomorrow cold doesn't mean he's rubbish. As for his forecasts being like an Express headline well can you direct me to on e with such precise terminology and reasoning please. 

[Hocus Pocus]

On 9 February 2016 at 8:20 AM, cheese said:

Him doing well for the past 2 years isn't enough to say that he is a more accurate seasonal forecaster than anyone else - it simply isn't long enough. That's like me scoring two goals in succession and claiming to be superior to Ronaldo because I have a higher success rate (based on very limited examples).

Whether he is more accurate, or not, will come to light in the next few years, I suspect, but there is a right load of old cobblers being posted on here and there's no justification for it. All seasonal forecasters will get it wrong at some point because the 'art' of seasonal forecasting is far from perfected. Nobody has it sussed - if they did, they'd be filthy stinking rich already.

Indeed it doesn't but it doesn't make him worse either. His forecasts are better than any other LRF out there at this moment in time due to him being right, after all that's what a forecast should be judged on not whether it waxes lyrical about future cold that never materialises.

[Methuselah]

That's all good, then? So I think I'll leave my genuflecting until after June 1st??

[Hocus Pocus]

22 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

That's all good, then? So I think I'll leave my genuflecting until after June 1st??

Ha ha  Ed, yes I may have jumped the gun with my accolades towards Ian's forecasts.

[cheese]

10 hours ago, Hocus Pocus said:

Indeed it doesn't but it doesn't make him worse either. His forecasts are better than any other LRF out there at this moment in time due to him being right, after all that's what a forecast should be judged on not whether it waxes lyrical about future cold that never materialises.

Well, yes - but based on multiple forecasts, not a handful. I am not writing him off by any means but he has only popped up in the past couple of years. If in 5 or 10 years every single forecast he makes is proven correct or closest to the mark then we can say with confidence that he is 'better'. 

[karyo]

2 hours ago, cheese said:

Well, yes - but based on multiple forecasts, not a handful. I am not writing him off by any means but he has only popped up in the past couple of years. If in 5 or 10 years every single forecast he makes is proven correct or closest to the mark then we can say with confidence that he is 'better'. 

Why are you setting the bar so high??

Do we anybody else that has such a good record? Even the Met Office with their supercomputers have more wrong than right seasonal forecasts.

[Hocus Pocus]

2 hours ago, cheese said:

Well, yes - but based on multiple forecasts, not a handful. I am not writing him off by any means but he has only popped up in the past couple of years. If in 5 or 10 years every single forecast he makes is proven correct or closest to the mark then we can say with confidence that he is 'better'. 

So we should give the likes of Ed, GP and every other LRF the same treatment then?

[Nick L]

I will give anyone credit for having a go at a long range forecast, but using phrases such as "May 2016 is certain to be wet and chilly" is just putting you on a hiding to nothing. And absolutely nothing is certain a few days ahead, let alone a few months. Best of luck, nevertheless. 

[Hocus Pocus]

1 hour ago, Nick L said:

I will give anyone credit for having a go at a long range forecast, but using phrases such as "May 2016 is certain to be wet and chilly" is just putting you on a hiding to nothing. And absolutely nothing is certain a few days ahead, let alone a few months. Best of luck, nevertheless. 

I agree anyone whose prepared to put their head on the block and make a public LRF deserves credit and when it goes the way of the pear they deserve respect for actually holding their hand up and explaining why they think they got it wrong. Nothing ventured nothing gained.

[Nick L]

Just now, Hocus Pocus said:

I agree anyone whose prepared to put their head on the block and make a public LRF deserves credit and when it goes the way of the pear they deserve respect for actually holding their hand up and explaining why they think they got it wrong. Nothing ventured nothing gained.

Absolutely. That's what separates genuine LRFs from charlatans like James Madden and Ian Brown.

[iapennell]

11 hours ago, Hocus Pocus said:

I agree anyone whose prepared to put their head on the block and make a public LRF deserves credit and when it goes the way of the pear they deserve respect for actually holding their hand up and explaining why they think they got it wrong. Nothing ventured nothing gained.

@Hocus Pocus I use my understanding of meteorology and the processes that govern the prevailing conditions such as sea-surface temperature anomalies, likely baroclinic zones likely wave-patterns in the circumpolar Vortex and the interaction of the global atmospheric angular momentum budget in making predictions. On the basis of macro-scale controls like cold North Atlantic temperatures, El Nino and slightly more ice than usual between Canada and Greenland but much less than normal in the Eurasian Arctic I would not personally be stocking up on suncream and shorts for this coming spring:  However, I would not say I am infallible and I would not claim to be better than the Met Office with their super-computers and their scientists with Ph.Ds and firsts in B.Scs in Meteorology! Yet even they get it wrong sometimes, as with their 2009 prediction of a "Barbecue Summer"!

[John Badrick]

On 10 February 2016 at 5:38 PM, March said:

The guy writes like he works for the Express and doesn't even make many predictions, no where near enough to verify and disappears for months on end. Why would you want him as the top class forecaster of the forum? Do you have no respect for the profession?  

This is the most ignorant comment I've seen in a long time. Have you actually read Ian's forecasts?? Obviously not!! Otherwise you would not put the Express and Ian in the same sentence. And yes I would rather read his forecasts than anyone else's because I have a respect for the profession and the knowledge he has on the subject

[DAVID SNOW]

1 hour ago, iapennell said:

@Hocus Pocus I use my understanding of meteorology and the processes that govern the prevailing conditions such as sea-surface temperature anomalies, likely baroclinic zones likely wave-patterns in the circumpolar Vortex and the interaction of the global atmospheric angular momentum budget in making predictions. On the basis of macro-scale controls like cold North Atlantic temperatures, El Nino and slightly more ice than usual between Canada and Greenland but much less than normal in the Eurasian Arctic I would not personally be stocking up on suncream and shorts for this coming spring:  However, I would not say I am infallible and I would not claim to be better than the Met Office with their super-computers and their scientists with Ph.Ds and firsts in B.Scs in Meteorology! Yet even they get it wrong sometimes, as with their 2009 prediction of a "Barbecue Summer"!

Ian, do you fancy a bash at the CET  competition ?

[damianslaw]

I do see logic in Ians forecast, the SST values over North atlantic are significantly colder than usual, and the way the jet is about to behave coupled with height developments over the other side of the Pole do suggest the Spring will start at least under a predominantly NW flow, and it would be a cold one thanks to the cold air wrapped around the PV. Indeed Met Office long range forecast is going for a rather chilly start to spring with a NW flow.

[iapennell]

On 11/02/2016 at 10:37 PM, damianslaw said:

I do see logic in Ians forecast, the SST values over North atlantic are significantly colder than usual, and the way the jet is about to behave coupled with height developments over the other side of the Pole do suggest the Spring will start at least under a predominantly NW flow, and it would be a cold one thanks to the cold air wrapped around the PV. Indeed Met Office long range forecast is going for a rather chilly start to spring with a NW flow.

It is interesting to note that the longer term forecasts from both the BBC and Met Office has predominantly unsettled and chilly conditions brought by frequent west or north-westerly winds through late February into March. It gives one a measure of confidence! 

[karyo]

I have to say Ian, you have done really well once again with your winter forecast/thoughts. 

I have noticed that the Eastern equatorial Pacific has cooled down sharply now (just +0.7c above average) while central areas are still strongly positive. I guess we are transitioning to an el nino Modoki now which adds further support for a rather chilly and unsettled spring. 

Karyo

[coldcomfort]

On 11 February 2016 at 9:20 AM, Nick L said:

Absolutely. That's what separates genuine LRFs from charlatans like James Madden and Ian Brown.

Maddens antics are well known and well documented, but please point me towards some of Ian Browns charlatan style LRF's plz. 

[iapennell]

4 hours ago, karyo said:

I have to say Ian, you have done really well once again with your winter forecast/thoughts. 

I have noticed that the Eastern equatorial Pacific has cooled down sharply now (just +0.7c above average) while central areas are still strongly positive. I guess we are transitioning to an el nino Modoki now which adds further support for a rather chilly and unsettled spring. 

Karyo

@Karyo, As the Equatorial Pacific remains especially hot overall that can only mean an active ITCZ and stronger -than -usual NE Trade Winds to the north: This naturally implies that there will be a need for stronger Westerlies in higher latitudes to satisfy Conservation of Angular Momentum laws. Ergo cool unsettled conditions off a colder -than -normal North Atlantic for much of the Spring. 

[Lake District Blizzards]

March has been, and looks to be fairly settled so far despite a few cold days.

Thankfully no strong westerlies or gales anywhere near this month for Cumbria 

 

i hope the rest of spring remains settled too!

[John Badrick]

2 hours ago, Lake District Blizzards said:

March has been, and looks to be fairly settled so far despite a few cold days.

Thankfully no strong westerlies or gales anywhere near this month for Cumbria 

 

i hope the rest of spring remains settled too!

Well we have had one of the worst storms of the winter on Wednesday down here and it's only the 1st week of March. Lots of power cuts, damage and 90mph gusts. The next few days seem settled, but Ian mentions settled periods in March in the forecast. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

yes, my 2 worst weather days this year are 17th Feb and 9th March, NOT any of the so called named storms

[MP-R]

2 hours ago, Lake District Blizzards said:

March has been, and looks to be fairly settled so far despite a few cold days.

Thankfully no strong westerlies or gales anywhere near this month for Cumbria 

 

i hope the rest of spring remains settled too!

The tables really have turned. It's been anything but settled down here. Especially two Wednesdays in a row with gales. In fact there was pretty widespread flooding on Wednesday this week. Nothing unusual for early March I suppose but certainly not settled.

[Liam J]

After the very disturbed winter March has been quite a settled month so far with more in way of dry weather with some sunshine bar the odd day here and there, and I'm glad to see it's looking settled for the foreseeable with high pressure in close proximity, although depending on cloud amounts maybe not wall to wall sunshine for days on end. If some model output is to be believed then it could potentially remain settled for what's left of March, we can hope anyway! 

Edited March 11, 2016 by *Sub*Zero*

[MP-R]

5 hours ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

After the very disturbed winter March has been quite a settled month so far with more in way of dry weather 

In the Lake District...