South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - 18th February onwards

[seaside 60]

14 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Yep Paul S    

Charts like this excite me, *Thames Streamer alert* - 

it has been a bloody long time coming for our region - hopefully we'll see a good fall 

Sourcing those winds, all the way from Africa, I just cant see it happening.

Maybe next week ie into March, when countryfile gives temps of 8c all week and they say its cold, it just doesn't do it for me.

I think there will be a lot of toys out of the pram, the only good news is what Ian F points to in regards to lower than average temps.

Even that may not be good enough.

[seaside 60]

Taken from the model thread, for those who dont visit there from Ian F.

 

 

Only points of emphasis I'd add to Gibby's summary are re Fri-Sat:

- sufficient signal still within EC-EPS and MOGREPS to maintain a risk of more developmental outcome with gales/severe gales into SW/S, with attendant risk of heavy rain and lower risk significant snow

- mismatches this morning between WV imagery and model expectations in critical source area for evolution later this week illustrates the low confidence message re how things will unfold: treat deterministic fields by Fri with a due level of doubt. May remain unresolved until short lead time.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Annnnnnnnnd back into the freezer we go.. 

 

In fact people North and even West London will see the frost back tonight and tomorrow.. Then for at least a week it looks cold maybe even longer?

 

I think we could see some very low minimum temps this week as the old FINALLY digs in!

[seaside 60]

Dont mean to be argumentative.

Sorry back into the freezer??
Where does any forecast suggest that.

Some frosts by night,  temps 5/7c during day, pos bit colder.

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

11 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

Dont mean to be argumentative.

Sorry back into the freezer??
Where does any forecast suggest that.

Some frosts by night,  temps 5/7c during day, pos bit colder.

 

A quick google search of your location puts you almost on the sea!

Of course, for you... It might not given that SSTs have a huge impact on the weather so close to the sea.. But for others inland (like most the region) it sure will feel A LOT colder.. Including yourself, although as you stated for your location it won't feel as cold.

5/7 degrees by day is a bit of a contrast to the 15 degrees that was recorded over the weekend in some locations!

So.. Looking at the charts..

 

Forst tonight? Yes for western parts of the region and higher ground (away from coasts and the far south)

Tuesday - wide spread frost

Wednesday - wide spread frost

Thursday - wide spread frost

Friday - wide spread frost

Saturday - frost away from coasts and the far south east

Sunday - frost away from coasts and the far south east 

This is the p problem for our little Island.. While you "only" live the other side of London (although outside the M25) the weather could be far different to where I am.. The lowest temp for instances I have recorded this winter so far is -7. How about you?

[Essexgooner]

1 minute ago, Surrey said:

A quick google search of your location puts you almost on the sea!

Of course, for you... It might not given that SSTs have a huge impact on the weather so close to the sea.. But for others inland (like most the region) it sure will feel A LOT colder.. Including yourself, although as you stated for your location it won't feel as cold.

5/7 degrees by day is a bit of a contrast to the 15 degrees that was recorded over the weekend in some locations!

So.. Looking at the charts..

 

Forst tonight? Yes for western parts of the region and higher ground (away from coasts and the far south)

Tuesday - wide spread frost

Wednesday - wide spread frost

Thursday - wide spread frost

Friday - wide spread frost

Saturday - frost away from coasts and the far south east

Sunday - frost away from coasts and the far south east 

This is the p problem for our little Island.. While you "only" live the other side of London (although outside the M25) the weather could be far different to where I am.. The lowest temp for instances I have recorded this winter so far is -7. How about you?

We've had a - 6 in Barling last week which is only seveal miles from Shoeburyness but slightly more inland if that helps, lol

 

[Neilsouth]

55 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

Dont mean to be argumentative.

Sorry back into the freezer??
Where does any forecast suggest that.

Some frosts by night,  temps 5/7c during day, pos bit colder.

 

We never went into the Freezer in the first place, it's been average to mild. ONE day of frost, ONE!!!!!!!!!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

12 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

We never went into the Freezer in the first place, it's been average to mild. ONE day of frost, ONE!!!!!!!!!

Think ive scrapped the car over ten times this winter.. Which I guess is more than the last few winters! Looks like I will be making that number over 20 by the end of this week!

[Neilsouth]

9 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Think ive scrapped the car over ten times this winter.. Which I guess is more than the last few winters! Looks like I will be making that number over 20 by the end of this week!

I'd say your inland location has probably given you the chance of more frost, here living not far away from the coast, not so much

[alexisj9]

Think I've had two frosts this winter, actually it may be three, had one in Jan two in Feb. Hoping if no snow we can get some more frosts from this spell.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

4 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

I'd say your inland location has probably given you the chance of more frost, here living not far away from the coast, not so much

Absoultey, people more west than me like Oxford have had even lower!

[Jimmyh]

what is going on in here the snap is not yet even arrived. If these current charts and I say a huge if then we are nailed on a cold snap. they are currently upgrading lets just wait and see and keep calm under the pressure of wanting to see snow. if in doubt wait for a few experienced posters in here....

 

[Jimmyh]

and to back it up Wednesday screaming northerly

[seaside 60]

Blimey I had 3 frosts just last week, not bad considering only few hundred yards from the sea.

[lassie23]

My deicer has lasted me three years.

[alexisj9]

Well temp is on the way down here, been going down slowly all day, started at 9.7 last night now down to 6.2.

[Neilsouth]

42 minutes ago, Jimmyh said:

what is going on in here the snap is not yet even arrived. If these current charts and I say a huge if then we are nailed on a cold snap. they are currently upgrading lets just wait and see and keep calm under the pressure of wanting to see snow. if in doubt wait for a few experienced posters in here....

 

Oh you mean like Dec? Or was it Jan? Perhaps it's for the end of FEB, could even be march  You've just posted what people said months ago

[ReindeerMarmalade]

I've been off the forum for a week or two so I'm personally delighted to see some of the discussions in the MOD thread! It's a desperate state of affairs that I'm pleased we'll be reaching as low as 5° this week but it's a lot better for anything approaching wintry weather than the double figures this past weekend. No, it's not snow. And no, it's not plunging temps or an Arctic blast (or any other Express headline) but beggars can't be choosers

[claret047]

2 hours ago, Surrey said:

Think ive scrapped the car over ten times this winter.. Which I guess is more than the last few winters! Looks like I will be making that number over 20 by the end of this week!

Surrey,

I hope that you have scraped the car windows and not scrapped it over 10 times this year as to do so would be exceedingly expensive!

I live in mid Essex and I guess a bit closer to the coast than you and so at times we have had more cloud coming in off the sea whenever an easterly component is experienced in the wind direction. From what I can recall I believe that we have experienced probably no more than half a dozen frosts this winter.

Good to see the sun is at last out. At one point it looked like it would remain cloudy for the rest of the daylight hours. Still quite breezy though. As someone posted earlier we seemed to be continually dogged by windy conditions. I was thinking about it the other day and I wondered whether it was because I had retired the May before last and had more time to notice than hitherto, but as others have noticed the same thing maybe I was not mistaken after all.

Kind Regards

Dave

 

 

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Just now, claret047 said:

Surrey,

I hope that you have scraped the car windows and not scrapped it over 10 times this year as to do so would be exceedingly expensive!

I live in mid Essex and I guess a bit closer to the coast than you and so at times we have had more cloud coming in off the sea whenever an easterly component is experienced in the wind direction. From what I can recall I believe that we have experienced probably no more than half a dozen frosts this winter.

Good to see the sun is at last out. At one point it looked like it would remain cloudy for the rest of the daylight hours. Still quite breezy though. As someone posted earlier we seemed to be continually dogged by windy conditions. I was thinking about it the other day and I wondered whether it was because I had retired the May before last and had more time to notice than hitherto, but as others have noticed the same thing maybe I was not mistaken after all.

Kind Regards

Dave

 

 

 

Im dyslexic they look the same two me.. 

 

[Lampostwatcher]

Ive I had about 8 frost s 

[Meggy]

Hi everyone! I've just returned from New York where I experienced a temperature of -14 degrees at 1pm. it's the sort of cold that hurts your head and makes your lips numb, and made me realise I needed warmer gloves and leggings on under my jeans! However, despite the low temperatures there was no frost or ice on cars, although the lakes in Central Park were frozen very solid indeed. On the Monday, it was warmer and then snowed all day. By Tuesday it was about 13 degrees and heavy rain, although it turned much cooler again for the rest of the week, which was sunny. I feel I experienced four seasons of weather in 5 days, but I had a great time.

[alexisj9]

16 minutes ago, Meggy said:

Hi everyone! I've just returned from New York where I experienced a temperature of -14 degrees at 1pm. it's the sort of cold that hurts your head and makes your lips numb, and made me realise I needed warmer gloves and leggings on under my jeans! However, despite the low temperatures there was no frost or ice on cars, although the lakes in Central Park were frozen very solid indeed. On the Monday, it was warmer and then snowed all day. By Tuesday it was about 13 degrees and heavy rain, although it turned much cooler again for the rest of the week, which was sunny. I feel I experienced four seasons of weather in 5 days, but I had a great time.

The dew point must have been to low for frost, No moisture in the air = no frost.

[Captain Shortwave]

4 hours ago, seaside 60 said:

Dont mean to be argumentative.

Sorry back into the freezer??
Where does any forecast suggest that.

Some frosts by night,  temps 5/7c during day, pos bit colder.

 

Probably time to coin the phrase...

"Back into the fridge" 

The coldest spell of the winter coming up at least at higher levels, unfortunately this will be somewhat off set by the stronger sunshine and longer days which will get temperatures into mid single digits (4-5C). That said things could get a bit colder by the weekend as low pressure forms to our south allowing a east to north east flow with the chance of some scattered wintry showers.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

7 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

The dew point must have been to low for frost, No moisture in the air = no frost.

Yep in 2010 when we had some mental low temps in the Region I remember going out in the morning to no frost but the ground frozen solid, waterbutts, lakes etc