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South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - 18th February onwards


Captain Shortwave

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7 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Probably time to coin the phrase...

"Back into the fridge" :rofl:

The coldest spell of the winter coming up at least at higher levels, unfortunately this will be somewhat off set by the stronger sunshine and longer days which will get temperatures into mid single digits (4-5C). That said things could get a bit colder by the weekend as low pressure forms to our south allowing a east to north east flow with the chance of some scattered wintry showers.

Compared to this winter including the barmy temps in December and January and in fact this weekend just gone where we saw 15 degrees.. 4-5 is certainly freezer! 

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Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cool clear sunny weather all year.
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
9 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Probably time to coin the phrase...

"Back into the fridge" :rofl:

The coldest spell of the winter coming up at least at higher levels, unfortunately this will be somewhat off set by the stronger sunshine and longer days which will get temperatures into mid single digits (4-5C). That said things could get a bit colder by the weekend as low pressure forms to our south allowing a east to north east flow with the chance of some scattered wintry showers.

I am worried that your phrase scattered wintry showers might be of the wetter kind at best.

The low at the weekend seems to be dragging up air from the south not east or north east, it will change of course......
Everywhere the ambient temp is above normal within 200 miles of here if not much further.
It of course will feel cold and hopefully some nice frosts.
However I hope that we get a high over the top of us not with east/n east winds with raw cold damp winds and nothing snowy to speak off.

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Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cool clear sunny weather all year.
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
9 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Compared to this winter including the barmy temps in December and January and in fact this weekend just gone where we saw 15 degrees.. 4-5 is certainly freezer! 

If I had my frozen meat in  the freezer at 4/5c, it wouldn't be very happy....:D

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7 minutes ago, Jimmyh said:

@Surrey I think we all know what you mean but some people are not picking up on wot others are saying!!!!!!!

haha! I for one mean no harm in my posts :) This is one of the best threads on this site we keep the bickering at bay!

The problem is some peoples "cold" is different to others :)

Living where I do and in a little frost "hollow" I really look forward to cold and frosty mornings they make the walk to work different to the norm to say the least! 

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

Looked in the MOD thread, Captain shortwave  was worried about something, someone was getting publicly flogged for saying 'marginal' someone else was told they need glasses and -7 uppers were mentioned from an easterly.:cc_confused:

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
11 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Looked in the MOD thread, Captain shortwave  was worried about something, someone was getting publicly flogged for saying 'marginal' someone else was told they need glasses and -7 uppers were mentioned from an easterly.:cc_confused:

Lol, I don't want to start ranting about grey and cloudy easterlies just yet. Though a repeat of February 2013 would probably be enough to make me emigrate to somewhere which isn't beside the worst stretch of water in the entire universe.

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Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.

Hi all, well at least it looks like more "seasonal" type weather is approaching as we go through the week.

Does it look cold enough for snowfall?....I would say just about, especially later in the week. 

Will there be any snow?....At this range you cannot say, but right now it looks pretty dry for most of the week. But who knows what could crop up at short notice.

Will snow settle?....perhaps temporarily, more likely after dark of course as the ground/sun impacts are a little high now.

In summary, nice to see that temperatures will drop and snow chances may increase this week. Just a shame though we could not have this setup a month ago!....but right now I will take a temporary dusting to salvage something from yet another awful winter.
 

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Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cool clear sunny weather all year.
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex

If its marginal, damp raw etc.

As Surreys says then best to get cold and sunny and frosty. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day

but this is the bit I don't understand with everything going on here.......

We say it all the time we need frosts and colder points for snow to be received. We don't need the huge -12 to -15, altho that would be nice. Simply put we need a decent amount of frosts and stuff to reduce the overall wet bulb and soil. If we have 5-6 nights of frosts locally severe then there must be an increased chance of snow coming over from a -7 to -8 easterly, as we know sometimes we due better with and NNE or especially and ENE.

Yes lassie 1981Feb said that it was marginal and I disagreed with him lol

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertford
  • Location: Hertford
41 minutes ago, Surrey said:

haha! I for one mean no harm in my posts :) This is one of the best threads on this site we keep the bickering at bay!

The problem is some peoples "cold" is different to others :)

Living where I do and in a little frost "hollow" I really look forward to cold and frosty mornings they make the walk to work different to the norm to say the least! 

If you walk to work, why do you scrape the car?

Had a few frosts here, and would imagine there will be one tonight, temp really dropping

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Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cool clear sunny weather all year.
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex

Interesting that Sub Zero has just posted two temps charts for thurs and friday, in the MO thread.
Seems it shows around -1c for much of southern UK, and nothing much more.
To be honest its not as much as I expected and I am sure it will be colder, but however my point is that it aint going to be particularly deep hard frosts going by that.

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Posted
  • Location: Farnham Common, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Farnham Common, Buckinghamshire

Just a quick one from me as need to catch up on todays output. I'm not usually one to discuss charts in FI, however, take a look at this...woo woo! :DHave a great evening all! 

ECM1-240.thumb.gif.31f8e99f1e2dbf3063a08

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2 hours ago, seaside 60 said:

Interesting that Sub Zero has just posted two temps charts for thurs and friday, in the MO thread.
Seems it shows around -1c for much of southern UK, and nothing much more.
To be honest its not as much as I expected and I am sure it will be colder, but however my point is that it aint going to be particularly deep hard frosts going by that.

Sorry for so many posts multi quote don't work on my tablet for some reason.. I think when it comes to minimum temperature models really don't do that well.. I mean we can get a rough idea like in towns and cities then work out from that the country side et. 

But the gfs shows no lower than -2 this week but can guarantee like you say, it will go lower perhaps a lot lower! High res sometimes does okay. But a question for more experienced,  do the higher res models take into account geographical location/environment?

Edited by Surrey
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Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)

As others have said it was getting a bit "eggy" in the MOD thread on things that probably wont happen anyway(i.e.snow). For SE think we can look forward to some nice sunny days and frosty nights for rest of working week and then we look likely to get a raw Easterly/North Easterly that will give us no frost, no snow and just overcast skies and temps of about 5 degrees with wind making it feel about -2!!-Oh joy. Think I will look forward to Tues-Friday then. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
1 hour ago, Surrey said:

Sorry for so many posts multi quote don't work on my tablet for some reason.. I think when it comes to minimum temperature models really don't do that well.. I mean we can get a rough idea like in towns and cities then work out from that the country side et. 

But the gfs shows no lower than -2 this week but can guarantee like you say, it will go lower perhaps a lot lower! High res sometimes does okay. But a question for more experienced,  do the higher res models take into account geographical location/environment?

I found a paper that says 'yes' Surrey. High Res models take into account detail such as vegetation cover, soil moisture, snow cover, SST's, cold air pooling and local winds due to terrain, etc. Here's the intro from the paper 'STATEMENT OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH-RESOLUTION NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP)'

Thanks to the increasing computer power, most Global NWP models nowadays have spatial resolutions in the order of ~10-30 km. This Statement of Guidance (SoG) focuses on observing systems that are required by high resolution NWP models producing forecasts of meteorological events with a 1-5 km horizontal resolution. Such forecasts are intended to be more detailed than those available from global models, due to more realistic descriptions of atmospheric phenomena such as clouds and precipitation. The added detail is made possible by a finer computational grid on a specific area, more detailed specification of terrain.....

https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/OSY/SOG/SoG-HighRes-NWP.pdf

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

The NMM shows a local air frost for the next couple of nights, but Wednesday night looks cold.

nmmuk-0-67-0.png?22-18

Widely down to -2/3C so perhaps a -5/6C in rural spots. Other nights see probably a little too much wind and cloud cover as well as the coldest air takes a while to reach us.

Shower wise, a few showing up for Norfolk and maybe east Suffolk, but not much else for this week.

For the weekend, it would be nice to see a full bodied north easterly develop instead of a weaker and less cold easterly which could mean the difference between a grey and dry weekend and a showery one.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

They just gritted here, probably for that frost, unless something is going on I don't know about. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
12 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The NMM shows a local air frost for the next couple of nights, but Wednesday night looks cold.

nmmuk-0-67-0.png?22-18

Widely down to -2/3C so perhaps a -5/6C in rural spots. Other nights see probably a little too much wind and cloud cover as well as the coldest air takes a while to reach us.

Shower wise, a few showing up for Norfolk and maybe east Suffolk, but not much else for this week.

For the weekend, it would be nice to see a full bodied north easterly develop instead of a weaker and less cold easterly which could mean the difference between a grey and dry weekend and a showery one.

And until (and if) the ENE wind arrives at the weekend, they'll all be of rain. The Triangle's having a good year!:shok:

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

Just watched the beeb forecast for the week and it has temperatures at 6c to 8c which isn't cold, it's only the night time temperatures that are low:cc_confused: They tend to over do the temps in their forecasts. Looking dry too:drunk-emoji:

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