March 2016 C.E.T. forecasts

[Norrance]

5.6C please.

[Roger J Smith]

These entries have been made in the alternate (redirect) thread, all since about 1100h today (29th). I previously noted two earlier entries made there.

 I have tagged today's entries by entry times relative to the above to give J-10 some idea who said what in what order when there are duplicate forecasts.

ProlongedSnowLover said 5.3 and Larger Than Average Hobo said 5.5 between Gael_Force and The Pit above (12 hours ago).

Rollo (4.8), Snowray (5.7) and Mark Bayley (5.2) posted between The Pit and BFTV above (10 hours ago).

Mr Maunder (5.8) and Mulzy (5.4) posted between March Blizzard and Don above (3 hours ago).

Aderyn Coch (4.5) posted one hour earlier than this post, count it as being this post for timing.

General note to all: I am working on a table of entries, will post it in the scoring thread at midnight plus five minutes.

[J10]

My go = 5.8c

(Posted 29th Feb 10.50pm done for my future reference later)

Thanks again Roger for all your help with this.

Edited February 29, 2016 by J10

[Godber 1]

4.8c for me please.

[Evening thunder]

5.5C I think please 

[Roger J Smith]

Untaken spots in the main range of forecasts (3.5 to 7.8) are 3.6, 3.7, 3.9, 6.2, 6.4, 6.9, 7.4, 7.6, 7.7 ... 12.0 is also taken ... we have 77 forecasts at this moment and the median value is 5.5 C. The forecasts can be seen here:

 

Edited March 1, 2016 by Roger J Smith

[Mark Neal.]

Late i know, but i'll have 4.9c. 

[DR Hosking]

it will be 7.0c

[mark4]

Sorry put my reply on a CET related thread on model forecast 6.1C please

[Relativistic]

18 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Untaken spots in the main range of forecasts (3.5 to 7.8) are 3.6, 3.7, 3.9, 6.2, 6.4, 6.9, 7.4, 7.6, 7.7 ... 12.0 is also taken ... we have 77 forecasts at this moment and the median value is 5.5 C. The forecasts can be seen here:

 

Hi Roger, my guess (9.7C, bottom of page 2 of this thread) appears to have been missed on the table of entries. Was wondering if you could add it in?

Thanks.

[BlueHedgehog074]

A little bit too late now really (apologies), though would have probably gone for a CET between 5 and 6*C - specifically 5.5*C.

[Summer Sun]

6.8c to the 1st

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average

1.8c above the 81 to 10 average

Thanks to BFTV for posting the daily averages

Edited March 2, 2016 by Summer Sun

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 2.2C, while maxima look like reaching the low 6s, so a drop to around 5.5C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

5.0C to the 3rd (3.9: -1.1)
4.3C to the 4th (2.3: -2.4)
4.2C to the 5th (3.7: -1.7)
3.8C to the 6th (1.8: -4.6)
3.6C to the 7th (2.2: -4.4)
3.5C to the 8th (3.5: -3.0)
3.9C to the 9th (6.5: +0.2)
4.2C to the 10th (7.5: +0.6)
4.6C to the 11th (7.9: +1.3)

A pretty cool start to the month, with a forecast of about 1.5C below the 81-10 average by the 10th.

Here are the rolling averages, Summer Sun.

1st    5.0
2nd    4.9
3rd    4.9
4th    4.8
5th    5.0
6th    5.2
7th    5.4
8th    5.5
9th    5.6
10th    5.7
11th    5.8
12th    5.8
13th    5.9
14th    5.9
15th    6.0
16th    6.1
17th    6.1
18th    6.2
19th    6.2
20th    6.2
21st    6.2
22nd    6.3
23rd    6.3
24th    6.4
25th    6.4
26th    6.4
27th    6.4
28th    6.5
29th    6.5
30th    6.5
31st    6.6
 

Edited March 14, 2016 by BornFromTheVoid

[Roger J Smith]

Sorry, I am a bit late with this table, also for Diagonal Red Line, you were not too late with that forecast and I will add it to the post (J-10 take note, I could not edit the table of entries without it going into scramble mode, so I posted late entries and one missed entry separately).

1981-2010 CET stats for March ...

DATE ___ MAX ______________ MIN _____________ CET date ______ CET cum

01 Mar ... 10.7 (1878) ... ... ... ... -3.5 (1785) ... ... ... ... 5.0 ... ... ... 5.0
02 Mar ... 11.1 (1777) ... ... ... ... 3.2 (1965) ... ... ... ... 4.8 ... ... ... 4.9
03 Mar ... 11.0 (1777) ... ... ... ... -3.9 (1965) ... ... ... ... 4.9 ... ... ... 4.9
04 Mar ... 12.3 (1859) ... ... ... ... -2.9 (1909) ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... 4.8
05 Mar ... 10.9 (1834) ... ... ... ... -2.8 (1786&1909) .. .. 5.4 ... ... ... 5.0

06 Mar ... 12.0 (1989) ... ... ... ... -4.7 (1786) ... ... ... ... 6.4 ... ... ... 5.2
07 Mar ... 10.9 (1875) ... ... ... ... -3.3 (1947) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... ... 5.4
08 Mar ... 12.2 (2000) ... ... ... ... -3.1 (1786) ... ... ... ... 6.5 ... ... ... 5.5
09 Mar ... 12.4 (1948) ... ... ... ... -3.0 (1917) ... ... ... ... 6.2 ... ... ... 5.6
10 Mar ... 11.6 (1957) ... ... ... ... -2.4 (1883) ... ... ... ... 6.9 ... ... ... 5.7

11 Mar ... 12.6 (1957) ... ... ... ... -1.9 (1847) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... ... 5.8
12 Mar ... 13.4 (1957) ... ... ... ... -2.4 (1785) ... ... ... ... 6.0 ... ... ... 5.8
13 Mar ... 12.8 (1991) ... ... ... ... -6.5 (1845) ... ... ... .. 6.3 ... ... ... 5.9
14 Mar ... 11.5 (1805) ... ... ... ... -3.7 (1845) ... ... ... ...6.6 ... ... ... 5.9
15 Mar ... 11.9 (1884) ... ... ... ... -1.6 (1867) ... ... ... ... 7.0 ... ... ... 6.0

16 Mar ... 13.2 (2004) ... ... ... ... -3.0 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.9 ... ... ... 6.1
17 Mar ... 13.2 (2005) ... ... ... ... -2.2 (1845) ... ... ... ... 7.5 ... ... ... 6.1
18 Mar ... 14.1 (1990) ... ... ... ... -1.3 (1853) ... ... ... ... 7.1 ... ... ... 6.2
19 Mar ... 11.8 (1822) ... ... ... ... -0.9 (1814) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... ... 6.2
20 Mar ... 12.3 (1779) ... ... ... ... -1.6 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... ... 6.2

21 Mar ... 11.7 (1927,1931) ... ... -1.6 (1899) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... ... 6.2
22 Mar ... 12.6 (1903) ... ... ... ... -0.9 (1837) ... ... ... ... 6.9 ... ... ... 6.3
23 Mar ... 12.1 (1852,1945) ... ... -0.8 (1837,1899) ...... 6.9 ... ... ... 6.3
24 Mar ... 13.4 (1776) ... ... ... ... -0.6 (1879) ... ... ... ... 7.4 ... ... ... 6.4
25 Mar ... 13.9 (1777) ... ... ... ... -1.3 (1853) ... ... ... ... 7.3 ... ... ... 6.4

26 Mar ... 14.6 (1777) ... ... ... ... -0.3 (1879,1901) ..... 7.2 ... ... ... 6.4
27 Mar ... 14.8 (1777) ... ... ... ...0.1 (1901) ... ... ... ...7.1 ... ... ... 6.4
28 Mar ... 12.6 (1822,1998) ... ... -0.3 (1785) ... ... ... ... 7.2 ... ... ... 6.5
29 Mar ... 13.4 (1813) ... ... ... ... -0.7 (1785) ... ... ... ... 7.2 ... ... ... 6.5
30 Mar ... 13.4 (1920) ..... ... ... ... 0.0 (1799) ... ... ... ... 7.6 ... ... ... 6.5

31 Mar ... 13.8 (1815) ... ... ... ... -0.8 (1799) ... ... ... ... 8.0 ... ... ... 6.6

[Summer Sun]

5.7c to the 2nd

1.1c above the 61 to 90 average

0.8c above the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

5.4c to the 3rd

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

4.8c to the 4th

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average

Bang on the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 1.1C, while maxima were around the mid 6s, so a drop to 4.6C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at:

4.2C to the 6th (3.9: -4.2)
3.9C to the 7th (2.0: -4.6)
3.7C to the 8th (2.9: -3.6)
3.9C to the 9th (5.4: -0.9)
4.2C to the 10th (6.2: -0.7)
4.4C to the 11th (6.7: +0.1)
4.9C to the 12th (10.4: +4.4)
5.4C to the 13th (11.9: +5.6) [Record High: 12.8C]
5.9C to the 14th (11.5: +4.9) [Record High: 11.5C]

So after a very cool start, the GFS has us, yet again, threatening records by mid month. Of course at that distance there is little confidence in the forecast, and so average to below mostly what remains in the reliable time-frame.
 

Edited March 7, 2016 by BornFromTheVoid

[Summer Sun]

4.7c to the 5th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

0.3c below the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

When was the last date you reported a running CET below the 1981-2010 average?

[Summer Sun]

16 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

When was the last date you reported a running CET below the 1981-2010 average?

Jan 1st was the last one 0.3c below

No update so far

[Summer Sun]

4.4c to the 6th

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average

0.8c below the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is -0.9C, while maxima look like being in the mid 6s, so a drop to 4.2C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at:

4.0C to the 8th (2.7: -3.8)
4.1C to the 9th (5.2: -1.1)
4.2C to the 10th (5.2: -1.7)
4.7C to the 11th (9.7: +3.1)
5.2C to the 12th (10.0: +4.0)
5.5C to the 13th (9.9: +3.6)
5.7C to the 14th (8.7: +2.1)
5.9C to the 15th (8.7: +1.7)
6.2C to the 16th (9.7: +2.8)

It seems the CET could see a rapid rise by the end of the week, with some almost warm temperatures by day being slightly counteracted by close to average nights.

[March Blizzard]

32 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

The minimum today is -0.9C, while maxima look like being in the mid 6s, so a drop to 4.2C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at:

4.0C to the 8th (2.7: -3.8)
4.1C to the 9th (5.2: -1.1)
4.2C to the 10th (5.2: -1.7)
4.7C to the 11th (9.7: +3.1)
5.2C to the 12th (10.0: +4.0)
5.5C to the 13th (9.9: +3.6)
5.7C to the 14th (8.7: +2.1)
5.9C to the 15th (8.7: +1.7)
6.2C to the 16th (9.7: +2.8)

It seems the CET could see a rapid rise by the end of the week, with some almost warm temperatures by day being slightly counteracted by close to average nights.

With a UK High at this time of year, depending on how clear it is (and for how long) could have a large bearing on the CET at the mid month point. I'm inclined to think a clear high would return a lower CET value than a cloudy one, as clear and calm early- mid March nights will likely go sub zero, offsetting the warmer daytime maxima, whereas a cloudy high will have a far narrower temperature range.

A difficult one to model/get right.

[Summer Sun]

4.2c to the 7th

0.7c below the 61 to 90 average

1.2c below the 81 to 10 average