March 2016 C.E.T. forecasts

[Summer Sun]

4.0c to the 8th

0.9c below the 61 to 90 average

1.5c below the 81 to 10 average

[hillbilly]

On ‎07‎/‎03‎/‎2016 at 5:31 PM, March Blizzard said:

With a UK High at this time of year, depending on how clear it is (and for how long) could have a large bearing on the CET at the mid month point. I'm inclined to think a clear high would return a lower CET value than a cloudy one, as clear and calm early- mid March nights will likely go sub zero, offsetting the warmer daytime maxima, whereas a cloudy high will have a far narrower temperature range.

A difficult one to model/get right.

Both 1986 and 1947 gave subzero Februarys and both were cloudy affairs where it was the very low Maxima and not the minima that made it so cold.1947 also gave the coldest March in this area beating 2013 and 1962 but am not too sure how dull it was .

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 3.5C.

[Summer Sun]

4.1c to the 9th

0.9c below the 61 to 90 average

1.5c below the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

4.2c to the 10th

0.9c below the 61 to 90 average

1.5c below the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

I had a look at the 12z GFS and fell asleep. When I woke up, the average value 7.5 C occurred to me. So from 4.2 on the 10th that would imply a CET near 6.2 C (from 17 more days at 7.5) as we approach the end of the month (by 27th). This slow increase should be fairly steady, there are a few somewhat cooler days around 20th but changes are rather subtle with no days looking to fall much outside the range of 5 to 9 C.

Now I am going to try to solve the real mystery of weather which is, how come there's still a winter forum?

[Summer Sun]

4.3c to the 11th

0.9c below the 61 to 90 average

1.5c below the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 3.9C and should be rapid rise in the next week.

[Summer Sun]

4.4c to the 12th

0.7c below the 61 to 90 average

1.4c below the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 4.3C another big rise tomorrow unless tonight is cold.

[Summer Sun]

4.7c to the 13th

0.5c below the 61 to 90 average

1.2c below the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 2.0C, while maxima look like reaching about 10C, so remaining on 4.8C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

4.8C to the 15th (5.5: -1.5)
5.0C to the 16th (6.9: +0.0)
5.0C to the 17th (5.8: -1.7)
5.1C to the 18th (6.4: -0.8)
5.1C to the 19th (6.3: -0.3)
5.2C to the 20th (6.4: -0.2)
5.3C to the 21st (7.1: +0.5)
5.4C to the 22nd (6.6: -0.3)
5.4C to the 23rd (7.0: +0.0)

The chances of getting an above average month are now beginning to shrink.

Edited March 14, 2016 by BornFromTheVoid

[damianslaw]

Nearing the half way point, and a good chance we might see our first below average CET value since September I think..

[Summer Sun]

4.8c to the 14th

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average

1.1c below the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

For everyone who enters this contest ... now that I see how the moderators plan to proceed (renaming this forum every season) we will stay here rather than going back and forth to the old general weather chat but I would suggest that somebody might want to move the "Scoring" (results) thread over here too at some point.

Meanwhile, I plan to open up the April thread on the 18th with the usual introductory table of statistics and little known factoids. It's a bit early but there's a weekend and this month has no weather anyway.

So that thread will be in this "spring" forum and there won't be a need for a "redirect" thread.

 

[Summer Sun]

4.9c to the 15th

0.3c below the 61 to 90 average

1.1c below the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

5.1c to the 16th

0.2c below the 61 to 90 average

1.0c below the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 1.9C while maxima look like hitting about 10C, so remaining on 5.1C on tomorrows update (unless the max is 10.7C or above).

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

5.2C to the 18th (6.2: -0.9)
5.2C to the 19th (6.1: -0.5)
5.3C to the 20th (5.6: -1.0)
5.3C to the 21st (7.0: +0.4)
5.4C to the 22nd (7.4: +0.5)
5.5C to the 23rd (7.2: +0.3)
5.6C to the 24th (7.7: +0.3)
5.7C to the 25th (9.0: +1.7)
5.8C to the 26th (8.2: +1.0)

A gradual shift to slightly above average temps is set to cause a slow rise in the CET for the next 10 days or so.
 

[Summer Sun]

5.1c to the 17th

0.2c below the 61 to 90 average

1.0c below the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

The April C.E.T. thread is open.

I had a look back through the daily stats from 1772 to 2015 to see how unusual the small range of daily means might be for this month.

So far the provisionals have ranged from 2.7 to 7.6 (a range of only 4.9). If that held to the end of the month it would be the second lowest range behind only 3.4 deg in 1933 (the extremes then were 5.6 and 9.0). The second lowest range was 5.0 achieved in both 1982 (3.5 to 8.5) and 1794 (4.1 to 9.1).

This month is projected to expand the range anyway, possibly to almost 7 degrees but the average for this statistic is 9.3 deg (from a mean lowest CET daily mean of 0.9 to a highest of 10.2).

The lowest maximum value is 4.6 in 1789 which occurred on the 30th. The second lowest was 5.0 in 1837 and 2013 tied for third at 6.8 with 1900.

The highest minimum value is 6.2 in 1938 which was on the 2nd. The second highest was in the aforementioned low-range year of 1933 (5.6) and third place goes to 1997 at 5.4 for its minimum daily CET.

The highest range was in 1845 which spanned 16.5 deg from the record monthly minimum (-6.5) to a value of 10.0. The second highest value for this was 15.3 in 1965 (-3.9 to 11.4). Third place goes to 1788 which varied between -2.5 and 12.3 for a range of 14.8 deg. The year with the warmest daily mean (1777 -- 14.8) had a range of 13.6 degrees.

 

[Summer Sun]

5.0c to the 18th

0.3c below the 61 to 90 average

1.2c below the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 4.7C  -1.7C below normal which is a lot.

[Summer Sun]

5.1c to the 19th

0.3c below the 61 to 90 average

1.1c below the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

5.2c to the 20th

0.2c below the 61 to 90 average

1.0c below the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

5.2c to the 21st

0.2c below the 61 to 90 average

1.0c below the 81 to 10 average