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March 2016 C.E.T. forecasts

Roger J Smith

By Roger J Smith
in Spring Weather Discussion

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Sunny Sheffield up to 5C. National CET seems to be a bit low. There's normally 0.5C to 0.7C difference.

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

Minimum today is 5.0C, while maxima look like reaching the high 9s, so an increase to 5.3C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

5.4C to the 24th (6.8: -0.6)
5.5C to the 25th (8.3: +1.0)
5.6C to the 26th (8.9: +1.7)
5.7C to the 27th (7.7: +0.6)
5.8C to the 28th (8.6: +1.4)
5.9C to the 29th (8.2: +1.0)
5.9C to the 30th (7.5: -0.1)
5.9C to the 31st (5.9: -2.1)

A finish of between 5.5C and 6.3C is now likely before corrections, and 5.1C to 6.3C after corrections.
 

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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted

A very near average March looks likely, hard to call whether we end up below the 61-90 average or not, but below the 81-10 average looks quite probable.

 

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Timmytour Accomplished

Timmytour

Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
Posted

A mean CET that comes in at 5.7C or less will give us a first three months of the year where the sum of the deviations from the mean for the three months (please feel free to help me out with the technical term here!) will be the lowest since 1974 .  5.8C will mean that 2013 is lower.

A mean of 6C will give a total deviation of 1.2 which will make it the 4th time in 11 years that the deviation has been under 1.5.  Yet from 1974 there were 32 consecutive years without a year registering a total deviation under 1.5 .  

1974 itself was the 4th time in 11 years the total deviation had been under 1.5.   Maybe there's a pattern! :)   Coincidentally 1974 also gave us a December way out warmer than anything had been previously until the last December, though of course this is going on to compare it with 2015 not 2016!  Still....maybe it's a sign out winters are undergoing a mid-Seventies winter malaise....on the plus side maybe we'll end up with summers like 1975 and 1976!

 

 

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Sunny Sheffield 5.2C -1.2C below normal.

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Soon be passing the national cet figure. A very rare occurrence.

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

Here, the monthly mean  currently stands at 6.3°C, considerably above the national CET. The max  today has once again exceeded 13°C. 

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Sunny Sheffield 5.4C

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted (edited)

5.7c to the 26th

0.1c above 61 to 90 average

0.7c below the 81 to 10 average

Edited by Summer Sun
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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted (edited)

Minimum today of 4.5C, while maxima look like being in the high 10s, so remaining on 5.7C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

5.8C to the 28th (7.7: +0.5)
5.8C to the 29th (7.2: +0.0)
5.9C to the 30th (6.7: -1.0)
5.9C to the 31st (6.0: -2.0)

A finish of 5.8C or 5.9C looks most likely at this stage, so 5.4C to 5.9C after corrections.
 

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted
2 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Minimum today of 4.5C, while maxima look like being in the high 10s, so an increase to 5.7C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

5.8C to the 28th (7.7: +0.5)
5.8C to the 29th (7.2: +0.0)
5.9C to the 30th (6.7: -1.0)
5.9C to the 31st (6.0: -2.0)

A finish of 5.8C or 5.9C looks most likely at this stage, so 5.4C to 5.9C after corrections.
 

Will the average for the final third being above 6C?

 

Despite the overall mild winter it's interesting that we had a solidly below average period from Feb 10th to March 20th. 

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted
3 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Will the average for the final third being above 6C?

 

Despite the overall mild winter it's interesting that we had a solidly below average period from Feb 10th to March 20th. 

Final 10 days should average close to 7.3C

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted
17 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Minimum today of 4.5C, while maxima look like being in the high 10s, so an increase to 5.7C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

5.8C to the 28th (7.7: +0.5)
5.8C to the 29th (7.2: +0.0)
5.9C to the 30th (6.7: -1.0)
5.9C to the 31st (6.0: -2.0)

A finish of 5.8C or 5.9C looks most likely at this stage, so 5.4C to 5.9C after corrections.
 

Its at 5.7c today for yesterday

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted
1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Its at 5.7c today for yesterday

Ah, must be a rounding issue. My stats have the 26th as 5.648C, which excel rounds to 5.6C. Will edit my post, thanks.

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Relativistic Seasoned

Relativistic

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
Posted

It's possible that we'll end up with a March CET that is 4C lower (or more) than December's CET. Only once in the entire CET series has a March been 4C or more lower than the December that preceded it, and that was when December 1852 recorded a CET of 7.7C, and March 1853 recorded a CET of 3.4C. Interestingly, the rest of Spring 1853 was around average (for the time), but the following Summer was notably cool, with all three Summer months sub 15C.

March 1807 (2.9C) was 3.9C lower than December 1806 (6.8C), so narrowly missed the 4C mark.

There have been 10 instances (including 1852/1853 and 1806/1807) where the March CET has been at least 3C lower than the December that preceded it. March 2016 will certainly be the 11th member of the club, and also the warmest (the next warmest is March 1975 (4.8C), which was 3.3C lower than December 1974 (8.1C)).

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Sunny Sheffield at 5.4C  -1C below normal. Shouldn't be any change by tomorrow unless there's an unexpected cold night or warm sunny afternoon.

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Sunny Sheffield no change for today but will be 5.5C tomorrow after today unless there's a cold night.

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