March 2016 C.E.T. forecasts

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 5.5C not likely to change much from that value.

[Summer Sun]

5.8c to the 30th

0.1c above 61 to 90 average

0.7c below the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 1.4C, while maxima look like being in the mid 11s, so remaining on 5.8C for the final value before corrections.

So 5.4C to 5.8C is now the likely range for March after corrections.

[SteveB]

I called 5.6c so looks like I might not be that far out in the end.

[Ravelin]

My guess 5.4C is on the outer edges but I'm happy I was within shouting distance as that was looking unlikely for a while.

Edit: From the 'Scores' thread at the end of Feb....

Quote

78 forecasts, median 5.5 C

So as a group we were pretty close.

Edited March 31, 2016 by Ravelin

[damianslaw]

Very good chance we will end up below the 61-90 average, but only just finishing number either 5.6 or 5.7 I suspect, not expecting too much of a downward adjustment. Its been a very average March in many respects, some cold frosty snowy weather at times, a lengthy dry period and thundery outbreaks at the end. A very variable month.

Looking forward to the warmer half of the year now., though April statistically is colder than October, under the sun it feels much warmer.

[Summer Sun]

March confirmed as 5.7c

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2016

[summer blizzard]

1C below the 1981-2010 average. 

First below average month since September and probably the largest anomaly since May.

[Relativistic]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

March confirmed as 5.7c

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2016

5.77C, rounded to 5.8C.

The December 2015 CET of 9.7C (9.68C to two d.p.) is therefore 3.9C higher than the March 2016 CET, and so December 2015/ March 2016 have failed to become only the second case in the CET record where March was at least 4C cooler than the December that preceded it (the only time this has happened was when a drop of 4.3C occurred from December 1852 to March 1853, see my previous post on page 6). It has however made joint 2nd place (with December 1806/ March 1807) for the biggest drop from December to March.

Edited April 1, 2016 by Relativistic Sting Jet

[BornFromTheVoid]

With a final value of 5.8C, March 2016 is the 143rd mildest on record. It's 0.8C below the 81-10 average and the average of the last 30 years, and 0.5C above the average of the entire record.

Of the 31 days this month, 8 days were above the 81-10 average and 23 were below.

Of the 8 above average .......................... ..................... Of the 23 below average
1 was in the top 25 .............................. ......................... 0 were in the bottom 25
0 were in the top 5 .................................. ......................... 0 were in the bottom 5

The total downward correction in March was -0.05C, from 5.84C to 5.77C, with 16 days seeing drops and, 12 seeing increases and 3 with no change.

[J10]

Score update based on 5.8c being confirmed.

Monthly (and Seasonal) - 5 players got it spot on
seaside 60, BlueSkies_do_I_see, feb1991blizzard, J10 and Mr Maunder. These make the 1-5 positions in the Spring 2016 comp.

Overall - The top 3 is
BlueSkies_do_I_see, Evening thunder and Don

After December caught (nearly) everyone out, the accuracy in the estimates in the past 3 months has been very impressive.

Stats Zone -
The average Entry was 5.7c, so only 0.1c out compared to the Actual.

These was a negative correlation between entry time and accuracy (-0.26) and the later quartiles did better than the first quartile of entries, suggesting this month that later entries were more accurate.

I have slightly changed the format of the spreadsheets this month, in an effort to make them cleaner.

PDF Mar 2016 CET New.pdf

XLS Mar 2016 CET New.xlsx

[iapennell]

On 22/02/2016 at 5:05 PM, iapennell said:

Nice to see that the long -range monthly outlook from the BBC is coming into line with my prediction for March (predicting cold conditions from a northerly quarter much of the time) ; not convinced about there being easterlies though! The month will often be quite stormy (more so further north) though there will be short mild spells from the west or south-west too. So while I think that March will be colder than usual I do not think it will be exceptionally so: So can I plump for a CET  of 5.5C please? 

Nice to see that I was close for CET, with it coming out at 5.7C for March 2016. However I also predicted Scotland would be colder and wetter than usual so it seems that I was 1C out and over-estimated March rainfall there (a few days more of Scandi/North Sea highs than I suggested)!