southern pacific Severe Tropical Cyclone Zena

[Somerset Squall]

After a March with no tropical cyclones in the South Pacific, one has formed in the northern Vanuatu Islands, bringing very heavy rains here. Winds are at 35kts according to JTWC. 18P is moving east-southeastwards at a fair pace, towards Fiji. Some additional intensification is expected as shear is relatively low and outflow good, especially in the eastern quadrant. In 36hrs, increasing shear will serve to inducea weakening trend as 18P continues to gain lattitude. JTWC expect a peak of 45kts.

 

[Somerset Squall]

18P has rapidly strengthened and has been named Zena. Winds have increased markedly to 65kts according to JTWC. Zena has developed an eye feature embedded in a small central dense overcast. Some additional strengthening is possible in the next 12hrs before shear rises over Zena, inducing weakening.

 

[Somerset Squall]

Zena's small eye cleared out overnight and winds increased to 90kts. So much for the 45kt peak initial forecast! Zena has began to lose it's symmetrical structure this morning, so the cyclone has peaked and will weaken through today. Zena is going to provide flooding rains to Fiji, worsened by the fact a tropical disturbance (that has now moved off to the east) has already caused flooding to the country in the last couple days.