south indian ocean Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Fantala

[Somerset Squall]

A late season tropical storm formed in the early hours in the central-western portion of the Southern Indian Ocean basin, 400 miles south-southwest of Diego Garcia. Fantala has since rapidly strengthened and has winds of 60kts according to JTWC. Further quick strengthening is expected as the storm heads westwards. It is unclear just where Fantala will end up, but Madagascar need to be wary of it, even though the country is not in the immediate firing line.

 

Edited April 17, 2016 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Fantala has developed an eye and winds have increased to 80kts. Further rapid intensification is expected over the next day or two as shear remains low and outflow good. Thereafter, some weakening will probably occur as upper level conditions deteriorate as Fantala moves north of Madagascar. JTWC expect a peak of 125kts before any weakening occurs.

 

[Somerset Squall]

Winds increased to 105kts yesterday (cat 3 SS scale) but have since fallen to 100kts as northerly shear has affected Fantala. Fantala should now strengthen again as shear lessens over he next day or so, before rising again as the track bends to the northwest in a few days time. Thereafter, a reversed track towards the southeast is expected as the ridge to the south of Fantala weakens and steering control is then resumed by a near equatorial ridge.

[Somerset Squall]

Fantala has undergone another round of intensification, and is now a strong category 4 on the SS scale, with winds of 130kts. Fantala could strengthen a little more in the next 12hrs before shear rises, causing weakening. As Fantala tracks back southeastwards, shear will ease, but as the cyclone pushes back over water it's already traversed, it will likely continue to weaken, albeit at a slower pace, due to moving over upwelled cooler water.

[Somerset Squall]

Fantala has become a category 5 on the SS scale with winds of 150kts. Fantala has a sharply defined eye with a solid central dense overcast with very cold cloud tops, indicating very deep convection. The turn to the southeast is delayed in comparison to what was previously indicated, putting northern Madagascar in more danger as Fantala moves closer to the coast. 

[Somerset Squall]

Fantala is still packing winds of 150kts today as it lingers north of Madagascar. The turn southeast is expected soon, but later on the cyclone could push back southwest towards Madagascar as ridging builds to the southeast once more.

 

Edited April 18, 2016 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Cooler waters caused by upwelling have caused Fantala to weaken to 95kts. A reversed track to the southeast back over where the cyclone tracked previously is happening currently, but Fantala is expected to reverse track yet again soon as the ridge to the south becomes dominant once more. Bit of a strange track again, 2016 seems to be the year of the meandering storm with Winston, Emeraude and now Fantala having erratic tracks.

 

[Somerset Squall]

Fantala has turned back to the northwest, almost back over it's previous track again. Winds have increased slightly to 100kts. JTWC expect the track to remain just south of Fantala's previous track, which should allow the waters to be warm enough for some further re-intensification before Fantala runs into higher shear north of Madagascar. This will cause some weakening as the cyclone moves quite briskly west towards Tanzania. Landfall in this country is not all that common as most storms impact the coast further south in Mozambique for example. It will be interesting to see whether a) Fantala makes landfall in Tanzania, and b) just how strong it will be.

 

Edited April 22, 2016 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

The track has shifted north again, which means that Fantala is tracking directly over waters it has has already travelled over twice. This, along with increasing shear, has negatively impacted Fantala, and the storm is looking very dishevelled, with winds down to 60kts now. Continued tracking over cool, upwelled waters will cause further weakening, and shear will increase further as Fantala approaches Tanzania. There probably won't be much left of Fantala if a landfall occurs.

 

[Somerset Squall]

Fantala became a convectionless remnant low within 24hrs of my last posting over cool waters and in dry air. Fantala's remnants have now moved out of the upwelled waters, and convection is firing once more, fuelled by the warmer water. However, shear is pretty strong, keeping the convection disorganized, so reformation into a tropical cyclone is not expected as the remnants continue to head westwards towards Tanzania.