May 2016 C.E.T. forecasts

[Roger J Smith]

CET May averages and other statistics

 

Extreme warmth

21.2 ... warmest daily mean (29th, 1780)

20.0 ... 15th (1833) earliest 20.0 CET day.

Warmest months

1. 15.1 (1833) ... was by a large margin the most decisive (1.2 deg) of the twelve warmest months until Dec 2015 (1.6 deg).
2. 13.9 (1848)
3. 13.8 (1788, 1758)
5. 13.7 (1808)

6. 13.6 (1992, 1727)

Averages

12.2 ... 2014 CET

12.1 ...

12.0 ...

11.8 ... 2001-2015 average

11.7 ... 1981-2010 and 1986-2015 average, 2012 CET

11.6 ...

11.5 ...

11.4 ... 1901-2000 average

11.3 ... 1971-2000 average, 1701-1800 average

11.2 ... 1961-1990 average, 1659-2015 average of all data

11.1 ... 1801-1900 average

11.0 ...

10.8 ... 2015 CET

10.7 ... 1659-1700 average

10.4 ... 2013 CET

Coldest Months

9.1 ... 1996 tied 13th coldest with two other years, the coldest in recent years)

8.9 ... 1879, 1885, 1902 tied 5th coldest

8.8 ... 1855 was 4th coldest

8.7 ... 1817 was 3rd coldest

8.6 ... 1740 was 2nd coldest

8.5 ... 1698 was coldest

Extrene cold

3.5 .... mean for 3-5 May, 1877

2.9 .... coldest daily mean (8th, 1861)

___________________________________

Post your May CET forecasts before end of day Saturday 30th of April 30 to avoid time penalty, or in first three days of May with increasing late penalties.

Edited April 20, 2016 by Roger J Smith

[Weather26]

9.6C Please

[IanR]

yes , the season of below average has begun,  10.1c 

[DeepSnow]

10.8C for me!

[pegg24]

9.9 please 

[alexisj9]

10.7 here please.

[storming15]

11.5 please

 

[Bobd29]

11.6 please

[geoffw]

12 please 

[simshady]

11c please.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

11.4C, please.

[Stargazer]

10.9 for me please!

[JeffC]

10.8 for me please

[SteveB]

11.8c please

[Mapantz]

11.2°C

Thank you please!

 

[Summer Sun]

11.9c please

[Relativistic]

I'll go for 9.1C.

[Lettucing Gutted]

Rest in pieces 'spring' 2016!...  17.5C    Last sub 9C May in 1902.  Last sub 10C May in 1996.  Last sub 11C May in 2015.

Edited May 22, 2016 by Lettucing Gutted

[DAVID SNOW]

3 minutes ago, Lettucing Gutted said:

17.5C    Last sub 11C May in 2015.  Last sub 10C May in 1996.  Last sub 9C May in 1902.

Craig, with respect, but why do you bother  entering the CET competition every month?

[Polar Gael]

13.0C for me please. 

[Costa Del Fal]

10.7c for me please.

[Harve]

11 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Craig, with respect, but why do you bother  entering the CET competition every month?

Did he not underestimate last December?

 

I'll try 11.5c.

Edited April 27, 2016 by Harve

[Ravelin]

I really hope I'm wrong but I can't see us getting anything resembling a 'warm spell' in May so put me down for 11.1C, slightly cooler than the recent average.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Below is the May CET from 1659-2015 in blue, the 30 year average in red and the linear trend in black.

The CET this month is likely to finish somewhere between 7.2C and 7.9C. The average May following April in that range is 11.1C

The linear trend for the whole May record is +0.24C per century. Following this trend gives a May CET of 11.5C.
The linear trend for May since 1850 is +0.60C per century. Following this trend gives a May CET of 11.7C.
The linear trend for May since 1950 is +0.95C per century. Following this trend gives a May CET of 11.8C.
The linear trend for May over the last 50 years is +2.30C per century. Following this trend gives a May CET of 12.0C.
The linear trend for May over the last 30 years is +0.34C per century. Following this trend gives a May CET of 11.8C.

[Methuselah]

11.7C please.