Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

May 2016 C.E.T. forecasts


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

May is my favourite month of the year - full of expectation for the summer ahead.. always a positive month in this respect. It can deliver superb early summer warmth, the sun by the end of the month has the same strength as it does in mid July, temps into the mid 20's can easily be achieved under clear skies and abundant sunshine and light winds - high pressure overhead by May is conducive to homegrown warmth with the land quickly heating up in the strong sun. Conversely it can be a frustrating month for those wanting early summer heat, SST values remain low, and an airstream from between north and east can still be very chilly with low cloud and temps struggling to make double figures - May 96 being a good example. Frosts can easily occur still under clear skies especially in the north.

Recent May's have been dissapointing often wet, cloudy and cool. Indeed northerly and easterly airstreams reach their yearly maxim in May, its not a month renowned for balmy southerly and southwesterly dominated airstreams (always pleasing to see the atlantic coming unstuck I say..), cyclonic slow moving low pressure systems can be the order of the day.

What do I expect from this May, unfortunately not much in the way of lengthy settled conditions. Often changeable with winds predominantly from a west-north quadrant, so quite cool, lets say 10.9 degrees, very similiar to last year. Perhaps a shot at something warm and dry and sunny in the second half, but not expecting anything long lasting. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

11.5c for me please.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
On ‎26‎/‎04‎/‎2016 at 8:42 PM, DAVID SNOW said:

Craig, with respect, but why do you bother  entering the CET competition every month?

Because it is the only thing I feel comfortable in joining in with on netweather these days.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
4 hours ago, Lettucing Gutted said:

Because it is the only thing I feel comfortable in joining in with on netweather these days.

That's a shame craig, it really is.

Do you honestly think that every month will break the all time mild, warm or hottest records though?

Genuine question.:)

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

11.2C  Cheers :)

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow

11.5c please

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

i think may is going to be a mix month. im going for. 10.5c.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
15 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

That's a shame craig, it really is.

Do you honestly think that every month will break the all time mild, warm or hottest records though?

Genuine question.:)

Yes I do think that any month now has the chance of being the warmest on record.  All of our airmass source regions, especially the poles are exceptionally warm as is our local climate in the UK and CET zone.

Apart from 2010 no year after 1987 has failed to produce at least 1 month in the joint top 20 warmest on record and the return period between each new warm record is now no more than 4 years.  In contrast record cold months last occurred in February 1947 although September 1952, July 1954, August 1956, March 1962, January 1963, July 1965, June 1972, December 1981, February 1986, April 1986, August 1986, May 1996, December 2010 and March 2013 nearly but failed to become cold records.  After 1996 even joint top 20 coldest on record months have become almost absent apart from July 2007, December 2010, July 2011, April 2012, June 2012, March 2013, May 2013, June 2013, August 2014 and September 2015.

Whilst at first glance it looks like we have had a lot of cold exceptions, especially post 2009, it must be remembered that most of those exceptions have occurred in the April through September period.  During this time the anomaly gap between the coldest groups for these months and any 30 year average is considerably less than that of equivalent cold groups for the October through March period.  This means that a joint top 20 cold month from the April through September period is not as impressive as a joint top 20 cold month from the October through March period.

I'm sure the facts and stats posted by Born From The Void in recent CET threads, especially December 2015, will speak for themselves.  BFTV is the new Stratos Ferric.

Edited by Lettucing Gutted
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

12.0 seems good to me. A battle between Atlantic troughing and occasional European influence coming up, so a bit up and down. Possibility of pressure rising mid-month - in summary for the mornth a little better than the recent average seems a good punt right now

Edited by Man With Beard
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

(edit) It now looks like something close to 12.7, both night and day from the latest GFS run, could be annoyingly overcast and drizzly at times, but warmish.

I hope Craig scores another big hit in July or August, don't you?

Edited by Roger J Smith
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Think I will up my guess to 11.3c please. :)

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

The 06z GFS would have the CET at about 1C below the 81-10 average by the end of the first week. 

So a guess of 11.2C for me, thanks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...