May 2016 C.E.T. forecasts

[crucible72]

12.7, the warmest since 2008

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

12C please. Sorry for late entry. Forum seemed broken when iv tried earlier in evening?

Edited May 1, 2016 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Daniel*]

Somewhat late, 13.0C please  

[Captain Shortwave]

Whoops late

12.8C for me, it is going to be a warm month as finally we see the pattern shift in favour of Atlantic troughing and high pressure to our east.

[jonboy]

11.8 for me please

[Carl46Wrexham]

11.2c please

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Late

 

13.9 C

 

Glad you can't get relegated from this table.

 

[Don]

Oh dear, late!  I will go for 12.3C please.

[Dami]

I'm late because I saw this!

13.1C for me.

[doctor32]

11.9 please

[BARRY]

nearly forgot 13.8

 

 

[seaside 60]

12.4c please

[Timmytour]

Sorry for being late....going for 12C dead

[William Grimsley]

3 hours ago, BARRY said:

nearly forgot 13.8

Crikey! That would be nice!

[Roger J Smith]

1981-2010 CET May averages and extremes

DATE ____ AVG ___ CUM AVG _____ MAX yr ___ MIN yr (extremes 1772-2015)

___ 01 ___ 10.6 ___ 10.6 ________16.1 1990,2005 __ 4.2 1866

___ 02 ___ 10.4 ___ 10.5 __________ 16.4 1966 __ 3.8 1979

___ 03 ___ 10.5 ___ 10.5 __________ 17.7 1990 __ 3.1 1877

___ 04 ___ 10.3 ___ 10.5 __________ 18.0 1834 __ 3.2 1877

___ 05 ___ 10.6 ___ 10.5 __________ 16.7 1800 __ 4.0 1979

___ 06 ___ 11.0 ___ 10.6 __________ 18.8 1867 __ 4.4 1831

___ 07 ___ 11.0 ___ 10.7 __________ 16.8 2008 __ 4.1 1879

___ 08 ___ 10.9 ___ 10.7 __________ 16.9 1867 __ 2.9 1861

___ 09 ___ 10.7 ___ 10.7 __________ 17.6 1945 __ 5.7 1837

___ 10 ___ 10.8 ___ 10.7 __________ 18.2 1959 __ 4.1 1879

___ 11 ___ 11.1 ___ 10.7 __________ 18.6 2008 __ 4.1 1773

___ 12 ___ 11.3 ___ 10.8 __________ 18.8 1945 __ 4.4 1816

___ 13 ___ 11.6 ___ 10.8 __________ 17.4 1959 __ 5.0 1915

___ 14 ___ 11.7 ___ 10.9 __________ 18.8 1992 __ 3.9 1839

___ 15 ___ 11.7 ___ 11.0 __________ 20.0 1833 __ 4.3 1839

___ 16 ___ 11.5 ___ 11.0 __________ 20.0 1808 __ 5.2 1996

___ 17 ___ 11.3 ___ 11.0 __________ 19.7 1833 __ 3.6 1935

___ 18 ___ 11.4 ___ 11.0 __________ 19.1 1952 __ 4.1 1872

___ 19 ___ 11.8 ___ 11.1 __________ 20.4 1868 __ 5.2 1872

___ 20 ___ 12.3 ___ 11.1 __________ 17.8 1916 __ 5.5 1907

___ 21 ___ 12.1 ___ 11.2 __________ 18.8 1916 __ 5.7 1894

___ 22 ___ 12.2 ___ 11.2 __________ 19.5 1918 __ 5.0 1867

___ 23 ___ 12.8 ___ 11.3 __________ 19.5 1922 __ 4.9 1867

___ 24 ___ 13.3 ___ 11.4 __________ 18.8 1953 __ 5.7 1867

___ 25 ___ 12.5 ___ 11.4 __________ 21.0 1953 __ 6.5 1814

___ 26 ___ 12.4 ___ 11.5 __________ 18.7 1784 __ 4.6 1821

___ 27 ___ 12.1 ___ 11.5 __________ 19.0 1788 __ 6.6 1984

___ 28 ___ 12.3 ___ 11.5 __________ 20.6 1847 __ 6.2 1869

___ 29 ___ 12.8 ___ 11.6 __________ 21.2 1780 __ 6.2 1869 ___ (note 21.1 1944, 20.8 1947)

___ 30 ___ 13.1 ___ 11.6 __________ 21.0 1944 __ 4.9 1807 ___ (note 19.9 1947)

___ 31 ___ 13.3 ___ 11.7 __________ 20.5 1947 __ 6.4 1802

___________________________________________________________________________________________

I will work up a table of entries tonight, should be available in the competition thread by Monday. The advantage of being late is that I won't have to try to edit in the late entries.

[Mark Bayley]

A late 12.8 please

[Roger J Smith]

Table of entries posted, 80 entries so far, median forecast is 11.8 C.

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=6

 

[Summer Sun]

7.9c to the 1st

1.6c below the 61 to 90 average

2.7c below the 81 to 10 average

[ditch]

Sorry Roger, 12.3 if I'm not to late.

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 8.7C, while maxima were about 14C, so an increase to around 9.6C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at:

9.2C to the 3rd (8.4: -2.1)
9.3C to the 4th (9.4: -0.9)
9.6C to the 5th (11.0: +0.4)
10.1C to the 6th (12.7: +1.7)
10.9C to the 7th (15.4: +4.4)
11.5C to the 8th (15.8: +4.9)
12.0C to the 9th (15.8: +5.1)
12.1C to the 10th (13.7: +2.9)
12.2C to the 11th (12.8: +1.7)

After a chilly start, the month looks like warming up significantly with the most significant spell of above average temps since last December.

[iapennell]

In keeping with my prediction for the month I will plump for a CET mean of 10.6C, if I may (!).

Edited May 2, 2016 by iapennell
change to temp not taken!

[Summer Sun]

9.9c to the 2nd

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average

0.6c below the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

9.4c to the 3rd

0.3c below the 61 to 90 average

1.1c below the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 3.1C, while maxima look like being around 16C, so an increase to 9.5C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

9.8C to the 5th (11.2: +0.6)
10.3C to the 6th (13.0: +2.0)
11.1C to the 7th (15.7: +4.7)
11.8C to the 8th (16.9: +6.0) [Record High: 16.9C]
12.3C to the 9th (16.4: +5.7)
12.6C to the 10th (14.8: +4.0)
12.7C to the 11th (13.7: +2.6)
12.7C to the 12th (13.4: +2.1)
12.6C to the 13th (11.3: -0.3)

A warm week coming up now, which should take us to about 2C above average shortly after the 10th, and threaten one or two daily records along the way.
 

[Don]

4 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

 

A warm week coming up now, which should take us to about 2C above average shortly after the 10th, and threaten one or two daily records along the way.
 

Not more warm records under threat!