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Arctic Sea Ice Discussion 2016: Melt Season


BornFromTheVoid

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
28 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Aprils Global temp anomalies...

The writing is on the wall -

image.jpg

s

Funny how the south is going the other way

Folk are looking at trends now and running it through to the end of September. Its far too early to predict how the artic ice will end up at summer season end.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
On ‎18‎/‎05‎/‎2016 at 09:18, Gray-Wolf said:

Hi BFTV!

We've been around melt seasons since at least 07' so I'd ask if you had ever seen a melt season that tempted you into serious discussion of minimums as early as May before?

For my part I have been fully aware that a Bad summer ( like 07') was bound to return and play merry heck with the ice but then the past winter has left the pack in such an extreme state of preconditioning I really do not know what to think! Should we see a June like last year will it provide enough melt momentum to carry a low figure into Sept even without further major melt forcing?

 

I think its far too early , a mild November doesn't me we end up with a mild winter etc

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham
17 minutes ago, stewfox said:

I think its far too early , a mild November doesn't me we end up with a mild winter etc

As frozen would say "let it go" you only have to read every post of this thread to see how it's blatantly obvious the sea ice is in trouble this year. Even average conditions leaves us second lowest from today's base state and ice conditions

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

ADS extent continuing with steady drops, now lowest on record by 570k and 1.076 million km2 below 2012.

Last year was the first time on record that sea ice extent dipped below 11 million during May, hitting 10.998 million on May 29th.
To the 19th, were currently on 11.041 million.

JgrP9aR.png

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
On ‎19‎/‎05‎/‎2016 at 21:47, inghams85 said:

As frozen would say "let it go" you only have to read every post of this thread to see how it's blatantly obvious the sea ice is in trouble this year. Even average conditions leaves us second lowest from today's base state and ice conditions

No one is suggesting the ice is in a poor state but we are not at September just yet.

Edited by stewfox
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

This is this years reality and I do not think Stew wants to acknowledge it? The past years losses over the season have included melting out a lot more older, more resilient ice before Sept. The type, thickness and preconditioning of this years pack means that to reach those melt levels will take less energy than it took back in the day so even choosing to measure this year against others skews the picture somewhat?

Since 07' we have only ever been a melt friendly season away from setting records. In 2010, when a fairly average melt season lead to the volume record it appeared to me that anyone denying the scale of change in the basin were merely chancing their luck that another 07' melt season wasn't in the offing?

This year we find ourselves with the ice so low and pre-conditioned that as early as May we can show how low the ice would be even if it only suffered the losses of the most retentive years since 07'. To be able to say that the 'Facts' are........... surely leaves no room for misunderstanding?

So , for the chancer's, what you need is for the rest of the melt season to be the most retentive we have ever witnessed to avoid finding ourselves 2nd lowest, or worse, by mid September .    

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
2 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

This is this years reality and I do not think Stew wants to acknowledge it? The past years losses over the season have included melting out a lot more older, more resilient ice before Sept. The type, thickness and preconditioning of this years pack means that to reach those melt levels will take less energy than it took back in the day so even choosing to measure this year against others skews the picture somewhat?

Since 07' we have only ever been a melt friendly season away from setting records. In 2010, when a fairly average melt season lead to the volume record it appeared to me that anyone denying the scale of change in the basin were merely chancing their luck that another 07' melt season wasn't in the offing?

This year we find ourselves with the ice so low and pre-conditioned that as early as May we can show how low the ice would be even if it only suffered the losses of the most retentive years since 07'. To be able to say that the 'Facts' are........... surely leaves no room for misunderstanding?

So , for the chancer's, what you need is for the rest of the melt season to be the most retentive we have ever witnessed to avoid finding ourselves 2nd lowest, or worse, by mid September .    

And we all know that is unlikely to happen unfortunately so i'm afraid the ice is in big trouble, to be perfectly honest, it would be some sort of miracle if we are anywhere near 2007 at this stage and whilst nature could balance things out somewhat and the extent slows right down, the fact we are starting with less ice tends to leads to less ice anyways. 

The pacfic side of the Arctic is looking quite doomed at the moment but who knows, things could change for the better but I somehow doubt it. 

The best weather pattern would probably be a slack pattern with winds blowing from the landmasses quite infrequent, certainly don't want too see a stormy summer like 2013 as that could prove just as damaging for the ice as a dipole. 

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

The 5 day NSIDC extent now the lowest ever recorded for May, at 11.787 million km2. This beats the value set on May 31st, last year, of 11.816 million km2

siISXec.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
3 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

The 5 day NSIDC extent now the lowest ever recorded for May, at 11.787 million km2. This beats the value set on May 31st, last year, of 11.816 million km2

siISXec.png

I'm sure I can see a 'recovery' in there somewhere, Sam? :oops:But, seriously, it looks like an ecological disaster is imminent. A time-bomb waiting to happen?:bomb:

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
4 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm sure I can see a 'recovery' in there somewhere, Sam? :oops:But, seriously, it looks like an ecological disaster is imminent. A time-bomb waiting to happen?:bomb:

Time to abandon ship me thinks.  Mars, I hope you're ready for us!

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
15 hours ago, Don said:

Time to abandon ship me thinks.  Mars, I hope you're ready for us!

Or we could just stick a load of sulphur dioxide into the Arctic stratosphere? It's getting to the point now where I think a positive feedback runaway is just around the corner, and if we don't do something soon the Arctic is stuffed. I am extremely worried for the Arctic, and feel like intervention is a must. 2016 is looking like an awful year for the ice, and perhaps it will be the trigger for something far worse.

Edited by Relativistic
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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
16 hours ago, Don said:

Time to abandon ship me thinks.  Mars, I hope you're ready for us!

If some frozen water does melt out in the summer , I think most folk will think of cruises to the north pole.

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
56 minutes ago, stewfox said:

If some frozen water does melt out in the summer , I think most folk will think of cruises to the north pole.

Sadly many people have no shame.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I really wonder if some folk fully understand the implications of seeing another big drop in final summer extent? 

1gram of ice takes 80 calories to melt. 1gram of water takes 1 calorie to see a 1c rise in temp.

Open water accepts up to 90% of incoming solar radiation. Ice covered ocean only accepts 10 to 20% which is spent on melting ice.

I think ignoring the impact of such a huge new source of energy in the climate system would be foolish!

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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
41 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I really wonder if some folk fully understand the implications of seeing another big drop in final summer extent? 

1gram of ice takes 80 calories to melt. 1gram of water takes 1 calorie to see a 1c rise in temp.

Open water accepts up to 90% of incoming solar radiation. Ice covered ocean only accepts 10 to 20% which is spent on melting ice.

I think ignoring the impact of such a huge new source of energy in the climate system would be foolish!

Whether you understand the implications or not, what should I, or my children, or grandchildren do?

As a grandparent, I for one will not be telling them bed time stories about  the disappearing ice, and the changes this may bring.

Because if worse comes to worse, theres stained glass window all we can do about it anyway!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
2 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I really wonder if some folk fully understand the implications of seeing another big drop in final summer extent? 

1gram of ice takes 80 calories to melt. 1gram of water takes 1 calorie to see a 1c rise in temp.

Open water accepts up to 90% of incoming solar radiation. Ice covered ocean only accepts 10 to 20% which is spent on melting ice.

I think ignoring the impact of such a huge new source of energy in the climate system would be foolish!

I got to admit, there is a part of me that would be interested what will happen if/when we do have an ice free Arctic, will there much difference regarding weather patterns if the Arctic is ice free or will it just be the temperatures? If an ice free Arctic does occur, will we see an even more delay to the Polar Vortex forming? 

One thing I have noticed in more recent winters at times(and especially last winter) is the Polar Vortex does seem weaker for larger parts of the Northern Hemisphere. Of course there is regional exceptions but compared to the charts of the past, we don't seem to see the purples being as widespread as they used to be, especially across the Arctic basin itself! 

One thing I have noticed this spring is how the PV has been weaker even compared to a couple of years ago, this could be one factor to the low ice extent at the moment but its also this dipole type set up we got at the moment and how strong the winds are blowing from Alaska that is the main cause.  Does seem there will be a slight change in this with the high perhaps moving over the central basin which could allow some colder air to hit beaufort but the longer term trends from the GFS does seem to suggest this could well be temporary and the way this Spring has gone, you would not be too surprised if it did reverted back to more or less how it is now. 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Beaufort final update

Quote

This isn't a final update as such, because I will certainly be mentioning events in the Beaufort Sea in upcoming ASI updates. But it is the last in a series of blog posts I have written (one, two and three) about this unprecedented event that started over 6 weeks ago and has led to a heavily cracked ice pack and a huge amount of open water on the American side of the Arctic.

The event has received some attention on other blogs and in the mainstream media. Just yesterday this image was posted on NASA's Visible Earth website, comparing this year to 2015 and 2014 (mind you, the Beaufort Sea opened up early last year as well):

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2016/05/beaufort-final-update.html

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I did wonder about the record early final warming above the basin this year? Is the loss of the PV something we are warned to expect as the basin reorganizes?

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Beaufort Gyre guest blog

Quote

Not an update of current conditions in the Beaufort Sea, but some science for your reading pleasure.

This is a guest blog by Alek Petty, a postdoc at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center and the University of Maryland, specializing in Arctic and Antarctic sea ice variability. Alek has just published a paper in the Journal of Geophysical Research called Sea ice circulation around the Beaufort Gyre: The changing role of wind forcing and the sea ice state, and below he explains in detail what the paper is about (also be sure to check out his website).

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2016/05/alek-petty.html

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

The polar vortex is strongly correlated with low surface air pressure and low surface air temperatures, so the relatively high temperatures certainly contributed to the lack of a strong polar vortex last winter.  January also had an exceptionally negative Arctic Oscillation (high pressure over the North Pole) which also contributed.  

It raises an interesting question, if we're into an era of ridiculously warm Arctic winters, will the reduced polar vortex reduce the tendency for cyclogenesis and rampant westerlies?  It didn't really work that way last winter, especially the exceptionally south-westerly-dominated November and December.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
11 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

The polar vortex is strongly correlated with low surface air pressure and low surface air temperatures, so the relatively high temperatures certainly contributed to the lack of a strong polar vortex last winter.  January also had an exceptionally negative Arctic Oscillation (high pressure over the North Pole) which also contributed.  

It raises an interesting question, if we're into an era of ridiculously warm Arctic winters, will the reduced polar vortex reduce the tendency for cyclogenesis and rampant westerlies?  It didn't really work that way last winter, especially the exceptionally south-westerly-dominated November and December.

I'm inclined to think (any thoughts based on one year's data can only be a guess :D) that a weaker PV might allow Euro/Bartlett HP's to become even more entrenched? That ought to go down well!:bomb:

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
2 hours ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

The polar vortex is strongly correlated with low surface air pressure and low surface air temperatures, so the relatively high temperatures certainly contributed to the lack of a strong polar vortex last winter.  January also had an exceptionally negative Arctic Oscillation (high pressure over the North Pole) which also contributed.  

It raises an interesting question, if we're into an era of ridiculously warm Arctic winters, will the reduced polar vortex reduce the tendency for cyclogenesis and rampant westerlies?  It didn't really work that way last winter, especially the exceptionally south-westerly-dominated November and December.

Shades of Jenifer Francis and highly amplified jet stream patterns.

Evidence linking rapid Arctic warming to mid-latitude weather patterns

Quote

The effects of rapid Arctic warming and ice loss on weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere is a topic of active research, lively scientific debate and high societal impact. The emergence of Arctic amplification—the enhanced sensitivity of high-latitude temperature to global warming—in only the last 10–20 years presents a challenge to identifying statistically robust atmospheric responses using observations. Several recent studies have proposed and demonstrated new mechanisms by which the changing Arctic may be affecting weather patterns in mid-latitudes, and these linkages differ fundamentally from tropics/jet-stream interactions through the transfer of wave energy. In this study, new metrics and evidence are presented that suggest disproportionate Arctic warming—and resulting weakening of the poleward temperature gradient—is causing the Northern Hemisphere circulation to assume a more meridional character (i.e. wavier), although not uniformly in space or by season, and that highly amplified jet-stream patterns are occurring more frequently. Further analysis based on self-organizing maps supports this finding. These changes in circulation are expected to lead to persistent weather patterns that are known to cause extreme weather events. As emissions of greenhouse gases continue unabated, therefore, the continued amplification of Arctic warming should favour an increased occurrence of extreme events caused by prolonged weather conditions.

http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/373/2045/20140170 (Open Access)

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