Arctic Sea Ice Discussion 2016: Melt Season

[reef]

There could be some big drops starting from the second half of next week as high pressure looks to set up to the North of Alaska, drawing in warm 10C 850hPa air northwards over the East Siberian Sea towards the pole. In fact, by next weekend almost that entire half of the pole looks to be very warm.

We could see a lot of fragile ice in that area disappear as a result.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Using the 5 day average, we've now dropped below 7/37 previous minima, and we're within 500k of another 12.

Some stats on the difference between current extent and previous minima

Diff.............No of Years....Percentage
Below 0.............7...............18.9%
0-100k..............5...............13.5%
100-250k...........0................0.0%
250-500k...........3................8.1%
500-1000k.........8...............21.6%
>1000k.............14.............37.8%

[Gray-Wolf]

Aren't you only supposed to get temp rises beyond 80N once the ice has gone?

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

Edited August 2, 2016 by Gray-Wolf

[Singularity]

Some shocking ECM runs lately - and I do not say that lightly.

First up we have three days of exceptionally strong winds, starting tomorrow, which happen to be perfectly aligned to drive the sea ice (mostly floes, which is notable in itself) toward the Greenland coast where they will be jostled about, potentially leading to considerable breakdown via impacts. At the very least, there will be a lot of compaction going on, reducing the sea ice extent markedly even if the area doesn't drop much (bearing in mind that it's already below 2012 anyway).

  

On top of that, a plume with 850 hPa temps as high as 10*C (12*C near the EA coast) is drawn from East Asia tomorrow, this then spreading out across the Pacific side over the following two days - which means the system can be expected to bring a fair bit of rain to those areas of the Arctic:

  

This would be alarming enough on its own - but a new event is already brewing as of Saturday; the intense storm about to swipe past the UK is ready to join forces with strong height rises over Canada/Greenland to produce an intense dipole effect over the following few days:

  

Now, the ECM is admittedly more extreme than GFS with this due to more effective merging of low pressure systems over Scandinavia, but GFS is not all that far behind, at least in terms of the general pattern, driving ice from the central Arctic out to the Fram Strait and Barents/Kara Seas, all of which are much warmer than the LTA at the moment, particularly Barents/Kara which is sporting some +8*C anomalies (unprecedented as far as I know).

This pattern is still hanging on five days after it set in, and this has the effect of throwing a large amount of cold air out of the Arctic and toward NW Europe, while confining most of the rest to the Barents/Kara region, where there is no sea ice to preserve.

  

 

This particular run is so extreme that I'll be frankly mortified if it comes off (given the impacts on the Arctic) - so it may be worth saving on your hard drives for keeps sake, as a memento to just how bad things could in theory be.

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Not ventured in here for a while! Boy I'm shocked at what I'm seeing, extreme melting going on. Didn't think we would have a chance of bettering the 2012 minimum for a while, but I was wrong... this is worrying.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

All of August yet and first half of September of full on melting to go yet too. alarming is an understatement. 

[Gray-Wolf]

Let's not forget the volume measure! it will also take a battering under the conditions forecast? without the 'volume' we're left with either a thinner remaining ice or large expanses of open water. None of this is good for next year as from then on we can expect the return of the 'perfect melt storm synoptic' over the basin. Since 07' we have only seen protracted glimpses of the conditions that spent that whole season over the ice so we could do with some rapid thickening to an average 3m ice by winter max to stand a chance of offsetting the onslaught of an 07' return!

[Singularity]

Even in the run up to the storm we have seen two century losses. Yesterday's was actually a bit surprising. One today would not be. Or tomorrow, or the next day...

GW do you mean we can expect a perfect melt storm season in one of the few years starting next (based on decadal recurrence as fastest feasible) - your post sounds more like we should expect it to be in place every year from 2017 but I expect that was not the intention? Just clarifying for other readers  thanks

Edited August 4, 2016 by Singularity

[weirpig]

2 hours ago, Singularity said:

Even in the run up to the storm we have seen two century losses. Yesterday's was actually a bit surprising. One today would not be. Or tomorrow, or the next day...

GW do you mean we can expect a perfect melt storm season in one of the few years starting next (based on decadal recurrence as fastest feasible) - your post sounds more like we should expect it to be in place every year from 2017 but I expect that was not the intention? Just clarifying for other readers  thanks

With the current projections  how low could we go this melt season?  ive heard some say we could go ice free this year.  Surely that is way ott.

[BornFromTheVoid]

A drop of 188k takes the daily NSIDC extent down to 2nd lowest on record.

It also puts the 7 day loss up to 942k, and means that we only have to average a 138k drop over the next 2 days to achieve a mega melt week (>1,000,000km2).

Using the 5 days average, we have now dropped below the minima of 14 previous years,  1979-1983, 1986-1989, 1992, 1994, 1996, 1997 and 2001

1 hour ago, weirpig said:

With the current projections  how low could we go this melt season?  ive heard some say we could go ice free this year.  Surely that is way ott.

It seemed like it back in May and early June, when we were way below even the previous records, that a few ice free days in September could be possible. However, since then the weather has changed to more cool and cloudy condition and we dropped back from lowest on record by most counts. We still have a good chance at setting a record low in September, but ice free will have to wait for another year.

 

[weirpig]

19 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

A drop of 188k takes the daily NSIDC extent down to 2nd lowest on record.

It also puts the 7 day loss up to 942k, and means that we only have to average a 138k drop over the next 2 days to achieve a mega melt week (>1,000,000km2).

Using the 5 days average, we have now dropped below the minima of 14 previous years,  1979-1983, 1986-1989, 1992, 1994, 1996, 1997 and 2001

It seemed like it back in May and early June, when we were way below even the previous records, that a few ice free days in September could be possible. However, since then the weather has changed to more cool and cloudy condition and we dropped back from lowest on record by most counts. We still have a good chance at setting a record low in September, but ice free will have to wait for another year.

 

I find that statement quite amazing    as many predicted ice free in perhaps the next 20 years or so.  i understand over the next few weeks the artic could take a very big hit   we could be soon entering unfamiliar ground 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest sea ice update from the NSIDC http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

[weirpig]

45 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Latest sea ice update from the NSIDC http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

So do you think the upcoming weather conditions in the area  still wont be enough for us to get past the 2012 minimum?

[BornFromTheVoid]

2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

So do you think the upcoming weather conditions in the area  still wont be enough for us to get past the 2012 minimum?

In 2012 there was a large area of broken and fragile ice sticking out from the central pack toward the Bering Strait around this time.

Then there was a big storm, called GAC 2012, Great Arctic Cyclone of August 2012, which wiped most of that ice away over the course of a few days.

 
 

We had a drop of over 1,000,000km2 in 7 days, the largest 7 day drop in August on record, by a long way.

 

Now we're already behind 2012 and it's just about to lose over 1,000,000km2 of extent over the next week so it's hard to see how we can keep up, let alone lose more than it. The upcoming weather doesn't look great, but I don't think it's enough to challenge 2012.

[weirpig]

3 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

In 2012 there was a large area of broken and fragile ice sticking out from the central pack toward the Bering Strait around this time.

Then there was a big storm, called GAC 2012, Great Arctic Cyclone of August 2012, which wiped most of that ice away over the course of a few days.

 
 

We had a drop of over 1,000,000km2 in 7 days, the largest 7 day drop in August on record, by a long way.

 

Now we're already behind 2012 and it's just about to lose over 1,000,000km2 of extent over the next week so it's hard to see how we can keep up, let alone lose more than it. The upcoming weather doesn't look great, but I don't think it's enough to challenge 2012.

Brilliant  Thank you for your time to eaxplain

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi ! Sorry if I confused you about the return of the 07' synoptic! I've had my memory refreshed over on Neven's Sea ice forum as to just what and where the info came from;

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1177

had a talk highlighting how frequent such rare events are.                                                                                                                                                                                     Sadly I have to wonder if , like so much else, the 'perfect melt storm' was a beast of its times and that those times are over?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Some stats on the difference between the current 5 day extent and previous minima

Diff.............No of Years.....Percentage
Below..............18.............48.6%
+0-100k............1..............2.7%
+100-250k.........4.............10.8%
+250-500k.........3..............8.1%
+500-1000k.......2..............5.4%
>1000k.............9.............24.3%

[Singularity]

Need to keep an eye on this beast of a storm now being depicted by the models. GFS gets down to 975 hPa so not far of this ECM version.

With the ice in a very broken up state the impacts could be pretty dramatic. 

In the meantime, the sea ice extent continues to be buoyed up somewhat by the bulging out of the ice pack on the Atlantic side as a result of all the drift going on lately. Despite this, there's still a close to average rate of loss as a result of compaction from the Pacific side toward Greenland. The question now is whether there will be a rapid drop-off at all this month to bring it back closer to 2012. The storm shown above might do just that, as the state of the ice offsets the fact that it's not quite as deep as the GAC of 2012 (though this is all speculative, including the reliability of the model output itself).

[Singularity]

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=1493.0;attach=34286;image

Turns out the ECM went all the way down to 966 mb on yesterday's 12z run. Yikes.

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=1493.0;attach=34298;image

The 00z still shows a 969 and of course the time frames are 12 hours apart so the true peak is in fact a matter of speculation.

[BornFromTheVoid]

56 minutes ago, Singularity said:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=1493.0;attach=34286;image

Turns out the ECM went all the way down to 966 mb on yesterday's 12z run. Yikes.

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=1493.0;attach=34298;image

The 00z still shows a 969 and of course the time frames are 12 hours apart so the true peak is in fact a matter of speculation.

Definitely worth keeping an eye on.

That low concentration ice between the North Pole and Bering Strait could take quite a battering.

Many of the 06z GEFS ensembles have a small strong storm ripping through Laptev first, before shifting into the central Arctic. Minimum pressure generally varying between the 960s and 980shPa. If the storms does much damage, it will probably cement a September minimum between 2007 and 2012.

Edited August 11, 2016 by BornFromTheVoid

[Geordiesnow]

The interesting thing about this storm is that its going to be quite a "cold" storm so its a bit different to what occured in 2012 and this storm is going to occur a week or so later which in Arctic terms could be significant. 

Still uncertain how it will fully play out as the low has not even developed yet but its one of those where it could do quite a bit of damage or it could be that the Arctic ice could get a lucky escape. I'll keep an eye on that bite in the ice near Laptev and the large polyna in the ice cover and see if the storm will make them join together because if it does, its quite likely the ice in Chukchi could well serperate from the main pack just like in 2012.

All very speculative at this stage but early next week could be very significant in where we end up for this years minimum. 

[Singularity]

19 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Definitely worth keeping an eye on.

That low concentration ice between the North Pole and Bering Strait could take quite a battering.

Many of the 06z GEFS ensembles have a small strong storm ripping through Laptev first, before shifting into the central Arctic. Minimum pressure generally varying between the 960s and 980shPa. If the storms does much damage, it will probably cement a September minimum between 2007 and 2012.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/ecm/48_mslp500_arc.png?cb=483

ECM now captures this small and vicious precursor storm.

I agree that this storm could be the defining moment for how low this year goes - and what all the preconditioning of the past 9 months has been leaving the Arctic unusually vulnerable to.

With the storm persisting for many days and some scope for it to keep re-intensifying after short pauses for breath (ECM 00z keen on this), The potential for upwelling of warmer waters from depth to replace the melt-cooled near-surface waters is eye-watering.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Yep, the 06z GFS has quite a strong storm lasting 36-48 hours before gradually filling out. It starts off around Laptev and gradually arcs over the Canadian side of the central Arctic, cutting right through the largest area of low concentration ice.

 

This is roughly what the path looks like on the latest sea ie concentration image

 

We could well see that ice toward Chukchi get separated from the main pack.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Another large drop on the daily NSIDC extent, -112k. This takes us just 33k off 2007 in 2nd place, but still over 600k above 2012.

With the 5 day average, we've now dropped below 23 of the 37 previous minima. This includes all minima up to and including 1998, as well as 2000, 2001 and 2003. We're within 250k of 1999, 2002, 2004 and 2006 minima too.

[Geordiesnow]

13 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Yep, the 06z GFS has quite a strong storm lasting 36-48 hours before gradually filling out. It starts off around Laptev and gradually arcs over the Canadian side of the central Arctic, cutting right through the largest area of low concentration ice.

 

This is roughly what the path looks like on the latest sea ie concentration image

 

We could well see that ice toward Chukchi get separated from the main pack.

Very interesting image, I think the uncertain nature of this storm and its impact that its going to be a cold storm in the most part whereas in general, the 2012 storm had more warmer air mixed in within it. 

I think if we had an ice pack looking like 2014 or even the ice pack of 2013, I don't think this storm will cause too many negative affects but this years pack just look so vulnable so you do fear what could happen, could the unusually cold uppers be a saviour?