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End of the week & weekend storm risk


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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Friday sees an area of low pressure push north from the Bay of Biscay toward Ireland by Saturday, with it a plume of moisture spreading north from Iberia and spreading across EIRE and western Britain - so could be some thundery showers / elevated storms in the west and EIRE later on Friday.

More uncertainty for the weekend, but it looks as if thundery showers or home-grown thunderstorms forming over SW England, Wales, NW England and Ireland on Saturday afternoon once overnight showers clear, storms that develop further east more isolated, with most staying dry, sunny and warm with temps reaching low to mid 20s. Then Sunday, showers and storms  developing more widely during the day across England and Wales, as moisture advection from the south increases further east. 12z EC develops 300 - 800 j/kg CAPE on Sunday widely over E & W, helped by temps hitting 25C and also far north of France from where some storms may develop and cross into SE England. Long way off though and subject to change. 

Not a great deal of mid-upper forcing or strength in upper flow indicated apart from Friday evening / night in the west, so severe potential looks low for now, but surface wind convergence could be a big player in triggering storms, given slack pressure pattern over the weekend, which would still produce some lively storms.

Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

I've split Nick's post above out to start a new thread specifically for the storm risk at the end of this week and into the weekend.

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Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, North Derbyshire 100m ASL
  • Location: Chesterfield, North Derbyshire 100m ASL

A few flashes over in Florence, Italy

 

https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/italia/toscana/firenze/firenze-skyline.html

 

Oops, did not notice the Euro thread :oops:

Edited by OddSpot
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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham City Centre
  • Location: Birmingham City Centre

Thunderstorms are back, and so am I! Fingers crossed we get a spark or two in London this coming weekend.

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

Here we go! This is going to be a great weekend for us south westerners! I'll be here throughout the week reporting my opinions and hopefully the facts!

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

For this upcoming thunderstorm risk, I've got a new Nest cam (as the other one kept turning off), so here's the new Nest cam live stream link: https://video.nest.com/live/OIJL3I

Enjoy!

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The  00z ecm has 300-600 j/Kg Cape at 12z Saturday mid wales to the Wash. At same time Sunday a much broader swathe stretching north from a line N. Somerset to London to southern Scotland. Cape values up to around 800 j/Kg east Wales.

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester (LE3)
  • Location: Leicester (LE3)

We've got to prepare a speedway track on Sunday for a Monday evening race meeting.... It usually involves adding thousands of gallons of water to it the day/evening before, and then further watering on race day, especially in warm/windy/sunny weather...... So my question is, Leicester / Thunderstorms? Sun/Monday.......??

Odds of copping a soaking naturally??

Cheers

Speedway Slider.....

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
12 minutes ago, knocker said:

The  00z ecm has 300-600 j/Kg Cape at 12z Saturday mid wales to the Wash. At same time Sunday a much broader swathe stretching north from a line N. Somerset to London to southern Scotland. Cape values up to around 800 j/Kg east Wales.

By the way, that's surface based CAPE not mid-level CAPE, so wouldn't be relevant to both our areas anyway.

Edited by William Grimsley
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

I'm praying you get something William, even this far out. I can already sense a disturbance in the force, it has posts of disappointment written all over it. lol

Edited by Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

I'm not praying I get something, but everything seems to be showing as being good signs!

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

That humidity is definitely increasing!

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham
  • Location: Birmingham

Looks like GFS has been gradually converging with ECM/UKMO-GM over recent days on trough/ridge placement, revising things generally westward, which makes a change. Net result is higher temp and moisture over the country Sat/Sun- instability outputs responding accordingly.  So nice broad agreement on upper profile, though surface conditions still subject to substantial changes as models get a better handle on finer detail.  But looking good so far with general cross-model agreement. Shame the profile aloft from a shear/forcing point of view not likely to be much of a player. Still, we take what we can. 

Edited by weather09
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Posted
  • Location: Leicester (LE3)
  • Location: Leicester (LE3)
1 hour ago, Speedway Slider said:

We've got to prepare a speedway track on Sunday for a Monday evening race meeting.... It usually involves adding thousands of gallons of water to it the day/evening before, and then further watering on race day, especially in warm/windy/sunny weather...... So my question is, Leicester / Thunderstorms? Sun/Monday.......??

Odds of copping a soaking naturally??

Cheers

Speedway Slider.....

We've got to prepare a speedway track on Sunday for a Monday evening race meeting.... It usually involves adding thousands of gallons of water to it the day/evening before, and then further watering on race day, especially in warm/windy/sunny weather...... So my question is, Leicester / Thunderstorms? Sun/Monday.......??

Odds of copping a soaking naturally??

Cheers

Speedway Slider.....

IMAG0755.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

similar setup to May 2008 this up and coming period. Remember the edge of this system hitting East Anglia. Worth noting that this was about the best we got all that summer too :/ !! 

This thing was tremendous on the other side of the water.  

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Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
7 minutes ago, knocker said:

For your delectation from the 06z for what it's worth

gfs_cape_mslp_uk2_14.pnggfs_cape_mslp_uk2_19.png

I can't access the MLCAPE at the moment, but they look fairly decent for SBCAPE charts

Edited by Convective
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Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland

Must be that time of the year again. First decent chance of a "plumey" event here this weekend. Expecting Thundery Rain here with temperatures on the rise, not too warm but certainly better than of recent!

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Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67

Not had any storms surprisingly up here in the central belt this year. That might change come sunday though......................

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
54 minutes ago, STORMGUY said:

Just to let evreyone my webcam is finally sorted and can be viewd 24 hours a day.

just had a ip updater prob.

My Live Weather Cam

Good to hear it Andy.....Sounds working good on the stream which will be a bonus for you

pop your post code in your signature so we can see where your streaming and the direction of your stream

Edited by Arnie Pie
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Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)

Let's just all wait and see, eh? I'm a bit worried as to what we might get here in France, but it might all come to the great SFA!

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