End of the week & weekend storm risk

[Convective]

12Z GFS output has slightly improved energy values by a couple of hundred J/kg - some places peeking at around the 1300J/kg mark, half decent for May. Shear is favouring western coastal areas with some 400m²/s² DLS along these areas through Saturday evening, coinciding with some of the best energy for this area. Dewpoints fairly good, potential for slight upgrades wouldn't go a miss. All in all, something's going to go off, and its going to go off good!

Edited May 4, 2016 by Convective

[Spikecollie]

I would like to think so, since there is so much heating and energy available from here in France! I hope I'm not hiding under the bed come the weekend and into next week! I hope we all get something, but stay safe...

[William Grimsley]

2 hours ago, ajpoolshark said:

yes, otherwise I fear this might happen.....

Sorry, but I'm quite offended.

[William Grimsley]

1 hour ago, Convective said:

12Z GFS output has slightly improved energy values by a couple of hundred J/kg - some places peeking at around the 1300J/kg mark, half decent for May. Shear is favouring western coastal areas with some 400m²/s² DLS along these areas through Saturday evening, coinciding with some of the best energy for this area. Dewpoints fairly good, potential for slight upgrades wouldn't go a miss. All in all, something's going to go off, and its going to go off good!

Is that for our area?

[Supacell]

I have an eye on the weekend and if things turn out favorable at a time I am free then I may head out for a chase. At this range I am not getting too excited but I cannot deny the potential is there.

[William Grimsley]

1 minute ago, Supacell said:

I have an eye on the weekend and if things turn out favorable at a time I am free then I may head out for a chase. At this range I am not getting too excited but I cannot deny the potential is there.

I'll probably be chasing with @Evening thunder, if things develop more inland rather than on the coast and/or here.

[William Grimsley]

5 hours ago, STORMGUY said:

Just to let evreyone my webcam is finally sorted and can be viewd 24 hours a day.

just had a ip updater prob.

My Live Weather Cam

Hello! I can hear you moving around in there!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

12 minutes ago, Supacell said:

I have an eye on the weekend and if things turn out favorable at a time I am free then I may head out for a chase. At this range I am not getting too excited but I cannot deny the potential is there.

Where would you say would be best to chase this weekend. I'm thinking of getting on the A50 and heading west from Derby towards Stoke? Seems like a decent spot to be judging by the charts at the moment! 

[Captain Shortwave]

8 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Where would you say would be best to chase this weekend. I'm thinking of getting on the A50 and heading west from Derby towards Stoke? Seems like a decent spot to be judging by the charts at the moment! 

North, West Midlands along with parts of Yorkshire seem to be where I am think the best spot will be taking advantage of the more unstable conditioned coupled with the warmth travelling north west from France and SE England.

NMM for Saturday

Isolated storms could develop over parts of south and south east England along with East Anglia/Lincolnshire, especially further inland where the highest temperatures will be.

 

Edited May 4, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[Harry]

Quite big variances in the runs of the models even at this relatively late stage in proceedings...compare 06z and 12z GFS for example, particularly into early next week.

Looking forward to some good heat for early May and a dynamic forecast throwing thunder risk into the mix.

At the moment west is best for thunder over the weekend in my view (Wales in particular looking good), with potential extending south and eastwards into early next week. Certainly Matt Taylor on the ramp up.

[Convective]

8 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

North, West Midlands along with parts of Yorkshire seem to be where I am think the best spot will be taking advantage of the more unstable conditioned coupled with the warmth travelling north west from France and SE England.

NMM for Saturday

Isolated storms could develop over parts of south and south east England along with East Anglia/Lincolnshire, especially further inland where the highest temperatures will be.

 

Things definitely becoming more exciting now that the short range NMM is coming into focus!  

 

I would imagine the 1800 chart for Saturday will be pretty much eye candy if that's only 1400

Edited May 4, 2016 by Convective

[Harry]

11 minutes ago, Convective said:

Things definitely becoming more exciting now that the short range NMM is coming into focus!  

 

I would imagine the 1800 chart for Saturday will be pretty much eye candy if that's only 1400

Well, same model, but the French version pushes out to 96h.

18z Sat SBCAPE

Edited May 4, 2016 by Harry

[Convective]

5 minutes ago, Harry said:

Well, same model, but the French version pushes out to 96h.

18z Sat SBCAPE

 

 

Sure looks good! Does the WRF provide an MLCAPE chart? I've never found one to be honest...

[Harry]

Just now, Convective said:

 

Sure looks good! Does the WRF provide an MLCAPE chart? I've never found one to be honest...

Aye! Attached 

 

[Mapantz]

For anyone interested, I have a chartviewer on my site, from EWN, with four different models. The WRFDA is pretty decent, with some good storm-related charts up to 72hrs (hour by hour)

If its of use to anyone, feel free to use it.

http://www.warehamwx.co.uk/cumulus/ewn/forecast/map.php

Edited May 4, 2016 by Mapantz

[staplehurst]

15 minutes ago, Harry said:

Certainly Matt Taylor on the ramp up.

He loves it! ha

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

This time tomorrow is when the analysing will begin. Hi res outputs is all I'll be observing. Good luck everyone! Feels good to have you back convective season! 

[Summer Sun]

Day 3 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 06 May 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sat 07 May 2016

ISSUED 20:35 UTC Wed 04 May 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

EXTENDED FORECAST issued to highlight areas at risk based on latest guidance - given the lead time, some changes are likely to the overall evolution of the forecast

As a sharpening Atlantic upper trough continues to dig southwards towards Iberia, while pivoting slowly northeastwards, warm advection will occur on the forward side from France towards S/SW Britain, especially so on Friday evening/night. Cooling aloft and gradually falling heights with a shortwave running northwards on the eastern flank of the upper trough, atop this increasingly warm, moist airmass, will encourage convective initiation across northern France and the English Channel on Friday evening, with scattered elevated showers and thunderstorms forming (given steep mid-level lapse rates) and then moving towards the N/NNW on Friday night.

Uncertainties exist over the exact placement of this activity, and to how far east it may extend. There are also some question marks over how deep this instability may be, and hence how active lightning-wise, which is quite often a difficulty with elevated convection.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-05-06

Day 4 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 07 May 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sun 08 May 2016

ISSUED 20:36 UTC Wed 04 May 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

EXTENDED FORECAST issued to highlight areas at risk based on latest guidance - given the lead time, some changes are likely to the overall evolution of the forecast

Elevated convection is likely to be ongoing across parts of north Wales / north Midlands on Saturday morning, drifting NNW-wards towards Northern Ireland and Scotland. In its wake, provided there are sufficient breaks in cloud cover to allow insolation, then several hundred Jkg-1 may allow isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon and early evening, especially within the SLGT.

DLS is marginal, and so the overall risk of severe weather is considered fairly low, with the main threat being from minor surface water issues from heavy downpours (given PWAT 20-25mm). There is also scope for further elevated convection to either be imported or develop in-situ across some southern / central parts of Britain on Saturday night.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-05-07

Day 5 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 08 May 2016 - 05:59 UTC Mon 09 May 2016

ISSUED 20:37 UTC Wed 04 May 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

EXTENDED FORECAST issued to highlight areas at risk based on latest guidance - given the lead time, some changes are likely to the overall evolution of the forecast

Pockets of elevated convection may be ongoing on Sunday morning across parts of England and Wales, and like Saturday will continue to nudge towards the NW - provided once again that sufficient diurnal heating can develop, then there is scope for isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon and early evening.

Once again forecast profiles are not particularly conducive to organised convection, and hence the risk of severe weather is fairly low, with the main risk being flash flooding from heavy downpours and local incidences of hail. Once again there is the potential for isolated elevated convection to be imported into southern coastal counties during Sunday night.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-05-08

[knocker]

40 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

For anyone interested, I have a chartviewer on my site, from EWN, with four different models. The WRFDA is pretty decent, with some good storm-related charts up to 72hrs (hour by hour)

If its of use to anyone, feel free to use it.

http://www.warehamwx.co.uk/cumulus/ewn/forecast/map.php

Really good stuff Mapantz

[Convective]

Matt Taylor now adding the "intense" word before talking about the thunderstorms in the latest BBC forecast

[A.J]

2 hours ago, William Grimsley said:

Sorry, but I'm quite offended.

just friendly banter my young padawan....happy storm hunting, may the fourth be with you 

[Supacell]

8 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Where would you say would be best to chase this weekend. I'm thinking of getting on the A50 and heading west from Derby towards Stoke? Seems like a decent spot to be judging by the charts at the moment! 

It is too soon to make a sound judgement yet but on current models I am in agreement with you regarding Saturday. GFS seems to have the main risk being around Derby/Stoke and northwestwards. The risk of storms carries on through Sunday and well into next week too. I live not far from the A50 so it would be a good route for me to chase on if models stay the same.

[William Grimsley]

@Summer Sun, those convective outlooks look great for the south west, however as forecast, it seems that the most intense convection will sit across Wales and NW England as highlighted.

[William Grimsley]

Don't forget, feel free to watch the thunderstorms that (hopefully) will move across our area on my Nest cam live stream here: https://video.nest.com/live/OIJL3I

[Wilxy]

Storm risk isn't great across the south this weekend however it's looking interesting further north and west.