Tropical cyclone 01B

[Vorticity0123]

After a lull of nearly one month of tropical cyclone activity, one could argue that we are on the verge of obtaining the first tropical cyclone of the 2016 North Indian tropical cyclone season. The cyclone is currently just off the east coast of India. However, owing to its large size and effects of easterly shear, it is causing a lot of precipitation over India.

Visible satellite animation of invest 01B

From this visible image, one would conclude that this is clearly a tropical cyclone given the rotation noted at all levels and the abundance of convection. The effects of shear can be best seen by comparing the center of rotation at low levels and the intense convection to its west. Whereas the center of rotation is lated near 13N 83E, the convection is pushed westward away from the center tards India.

Another piece of evicence is a banding structure which can be seen on the northeastern flank of the cyclone. THis is much better observeable in microwave imagery:

Microwave satellite image of 01B.

Note how a curved band is located along the northern flank of the storm. The band seems to be attached all the way to the center of the storm.

Strongest piece of evidence

As of writing, an even stronger piece of evidence has come out, and that is that the JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Centre) has issued their first warning on tropical cyclone 01B. They expect the cyclone to turn northeastward and strengthen initially, after which it weakens due to cooler sea surface temperatures and probably increased vertical wind shear as the system becomes embedded in a midlatitude trough.

Track forecast for TC 01B from JTWC.

Sources

JTWC

CIRA (for satellite imagery)

 

 

Edited May 18, 2016 by Vorticity0123
Added sources, updated topic title and corrected grammar mistakes

[knocker]