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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread 25/5/16 onwards


A.J
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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

    A nice shiny new thread for everyone to post their thoughts on potential convective weather over the next few days :)

    old thread here -------> 

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

    My suggestion was accepted! Thanks, AJ! Yes, looking good for SW areas through Friday and into Friday Night, I mean those BBC graphics made my jaw drop!

    Can we just take a minute? Oh my god!

    aaaa4dc81b95869316351839d338c69d.png

    Edited by William Grimsley
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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Meto ffice forecast is for scattered heavy showers Fri / Sat so I wouldn't get too excited.  Cape and LI etc don't look very inspiring.  Graphic above shows downpours in the channel?

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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    Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
    1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

    Meto ffice forecast is for scattered heavy showers Fri / Sat so I wouldn't get too excited.  Cape and LI etc don't look very inspiring.  Graphic above shows downpours in the channel?

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

    Yes, exactly. Elevated thunderstorms from the continent, just what we need down here.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
    14 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

    My suggestion was accepted! Thanks, AJ! Yes, looking good for SW areas through Friday and into Friday Night, I mean those BBC graphics made my jaw drop!

    Can we just take a minute? Oh my god!

    aaaa4dc81b95869316351839d338c69d.png

    All about looking at the evidence my dear fellow....none those cells are over land on that graphic...if like has happened a lot this year (and last) the storms could rage on all cylinders over the channel and either miss land entirely or pfffft out over land :D agree though, pretty colours :rofl:

    Edited by Harry
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    Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
    5 minutes ago, Harry said:

    All about looking at the evidence my dear fellow....none those cells are over land on that graphic...if like has happened a lot this year (and last) the storms could rage on all cylinders over the channel and either miss land entirely or pfffft out over land :D agree though, pretty colours :rofl:

    Yes, I agree and those cells aren't over over land but that does suggest that something may happen for southern coastal areas.

    Oh, and to answer your post in the old thread Harry, yes the only big thunderstorms I remember have happened overnight here, we only seem to do well when there are mid level thunderstorms rumbling around...

    Edited by William Grimsley
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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
    2 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

    Yes, I agree and those cells aren't over over land but that does suggest that something may happen for southern coastal areas.

    Indeed - if you look at the FAX chart for Friday night you will see a trough located in that general location.

     

     

    34758928.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
    4 minutes ago, Harry said:

    Indeed - if you look at the FAX chart for Friday night you will see a trough located in that general location.

     

     

    34758928.gif

    I actually may be in luck, especially as the Met Office seem to be going for something. "Must not get excited, must not get excited!"...

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellington, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Wellington, Somerset

    The thread has gone quiet despite a good chance especially tomorrow 

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    Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

    Yes, quite surprised really, Matt. Fingers crossed for some big elevated thunderstorms. :D

    Some elevated showers are moving up from the south, if only they were thunderstorms...

    Edited by William Grimsley
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    Posted
  • Location: Wellington, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Wellington, Somerset

    Yes haha, well there's a small risk of some imported stuff tomorrow morning and then if there are sufficient cloud breaks daytime heating should pop of some 

    Edited by MattTarrant
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    Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
    9 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

    Yes haha, well there's a small risk of some imported stuff tomorrow morning and then if there are sufficient cloud breaks daytime heating heating should pop of some 

    Crikey, I thought it was more tomorrow evening and overnight, will be keeping a look out. I've just looked at the NMM and GFS and surface based thunderstorms look like having a better chance of developing but I hope the mid-level wins out! ;)

    Kirkwood only mentioned showers overnight with the word thunder only mentioned during tomorrow afternoon, we're screwed! LOL!

    Edited by William Grimsley
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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
    7 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

    Crikey, I thought it was more tomorrow evening and overnight, will be keeping a look out. I've just looked at the NMM and GFS and surface based thunderstorms look like having a better chance of developing but I hope the mid-level wins out! ;)

    Good God man why so? Surface based thunderstorms are much better if you want to full force of storms.

    Elevated storms can end up being little more than light shows. I had some awesome elevated storms last year with very frequent lightning, but the rain tended to be less dramatic and the thunder even less so.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
    Just now, Harry said:

    Good God man why so? Surface based thunderstorms are much better if you want to full force of storms.

    Elevated storms can end up being little more than light shows. I had some awesome elevated storms last year with very frequent lightning, but the rain tended to be less dramatic and the thunder even less so.

    We seem to only get elevated thunderstorms here on the coast, I can't remember having a surface based thunderstorm here.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellington, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Wellington, Somerset

    I'm praying for elevated storms for you William 

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    Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
    11 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

    I'm praying for elevated storms for you William 

    Haha, thanks... We did very well in Summer 2014 so it's not like it can't happen, but recently nothing wants to go bang here... I hope that will change.

    Shall we say, this is encouraging...

    33689b9a7872d2348db55738065d993d.png

    Also, this, but nothing exceptional, but to get something elevated would be the highlight of my year!

    25bd501e933275d1dfe8fca22490ba59.png

    Edited by William Grimsley
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    Posted
  • Location: Wellington, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Wellington, Somerset
    11 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

    Haha, thanks... We did very well in Summer 2014 so it's not like it can't happen, but recently nothing wants to go bang here... I hope that will change.

    Shall we say, this is encouraging...

    33689b9a7872d2348db55738065d993d.png

    Also, this, but nothing exceptional, but to get something elevated would be the highlight of my year!

    25bd501e933275d1dfe8fca22490ba59.png

    Those graphics are good 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

    In answer to the initial question why it isn't ramping up in here - I think it's because there is still a lot of doubt about the coverage of storms.

    On the latest models, it seems there is low risk of some elevated storms approaching the SW-UK in the early hours of tomorrow. MUCAPE is quite meagre so any lightning activity I expect to sporadic at best.

    Tomorrow there is a risk of storms thanks to a trough which is modelled to move NE through the day, initially across Devon/Cornwall, moving NE across S Wales/Somerset/Wiltshire/Hampshire. The trough doesn't overlap decent instability until the afternoon however so better chance for S-Wales/Somerset/Wilts/Bristol sort of area. 

    Tomorrow night there is a small risk of elevated storms across the far SE as a zone of instability drifts across from the near continent. NMM models convective precipitation with this, however equally it could be quite frontal in nature (FAX chart shows warm fronts drifting NE around that period) which may serve to suppress lightning risk. Again, nothing particularly notable being modelled.

    Saturday is perhaps the best chance with fair to decent instability across SE-UK, Midlands, S-UK and parts of the SW. I suspect given no obvious triggers or steering winds to organise them, any storms could be pulse like in nature and potentially rather isolated.

    So - yes there appears to be potential but not ideal chase days and less likely there will be anything approaching severe or particularly memorable. This may account for the lack of a buzz...only my opinion of course in the time I've got before getting on with proper work, lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
    1 hour ago, William Grimsley said:

    Crikey, I thought it was more tomorrow evening and overnight, will be keeping a look out. I've just looked at the NMM and GFS and surface based thunderstorms look like having a better chance of developing but I hope the mid-level wins out! ;)

    Kirkwood only mentioned showers overnight with the word thunder only mentioned during tomorrow afternoon, we're screwed! LOL!

    Did she say "humdingers"? 

    You know what happens when she says that word...or rather what doesn't happen...

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W

    look like I should hopefully miss out YAY heres hoping and I am praying for you william I really am

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    Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

    Altocumulus Castellanus cloud to the SSE now! :D

    image.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

    I have a sense of dejavu here William, and not saying it definitely isn't as the photo isn't clear, but that doesn't look much like ac-cas to me. This is ac-cas:

    800px-Altocumulus-Castellanus.jpg

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Altocumulus_castellanus_cloud

    (Photo - By Bidgee (Own work) [CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons)

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    Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
    1 minute ago, Paul said:

    I have a sense of dejavu here William, and not saying it definitely isn't as the photo isn't clear, but that doesn't look much like ac-cas to me. This is ac-cas:

    800px-Altocumulus-Castellanus.jpg

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Altocumulus_castellanus_cloud

    (Photo - By Bidgee (Own work) [CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons)

    Yeah, it's definitely not like that, but yes you can't really see apologies for the low quality. I'll see if I can get a photo of better structured Altocumulus Castellanus cloud later.

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