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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread 25/5/16 onwards


A.J

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Defo Ac that I can make out, though really can't tell if there's some turrets or not.

I would be surprised only given that mid level instability is not due to increase (albeit only marginally) until much later.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Just seen that UKMO is going for risk of an isolated thundery shower across Kent and Sussex tonight :cc_confused:

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

There was definitely some towering starting albeit flat, but I probably over did it saying it was fully Altocumulus Castellanus cloud, apologies.

The only thing I'm slightly concerned about is that neither Convective Weather or Estofex have issued a thunderstorm risk...

Edited by William Grimsley
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
12 minutes ago, Harry said:

Just seen that UKMO is going for risk of an isolated thundery shower across Kent and Sussex tonight :cc_confused:

I was just looking at something similar myself- only a precip chart, so not to be taken too seriously.

Screenshot_2016-05-26-11-59-39.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Philip Avery certainly used the 'T' word on his forecast for the southwest a lot this morning, first possible batch early tomorrow morning, then further developments later in the day. Saturday also looked quite promising. He did however state a lot of cloud cover which as we know tends to hinder things. So let's see, but the potential is certainly there! Already feels like a different season out there toady compared to yesterday.

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
4 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Philip Avery certainly used the 'T' word on his forecast for the southwest a lot this morning, first possible batch early tomorrow morning, then further developments later in the day. Saturday also looked quite promising. He did however state a lot of cloud cover which as we know tends to hinder things. So let's see, but the potential is certainly there! Already feels like a different season out there toady compared to yesterday.

When did you see that forecast, out of interest? The one on the website doesn't mention thunder until the afternoon, the first batch (affecting my area) are forecast as just showers. Interesting.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
1 minute ago, William Grimsley said:

When did you see that forecast, out of interest? The one on the website doesn't mention thunder until the afternoon, the first batch (affecting my area) are forecast as just showers. Interesting.

Within the last hour or so. Tbh, I'm not expecting thunder activity until later in the day anyway, but lightning symbols were very generously used for the morning too.

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

Um, ok! We have go in Brittany big style! Woooooooo!

@MP-R, just saw it. Looking very good for down here. Remember... "Must not get excited..."

Edited by William Grimsley
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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Just now, Ben Sainsbury said:

Does anyone know of any free websites to access the NMM Model?

Meteociel.fr. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Just now, Ben Sainsbury said:

Genius! :D

No problem! Oh, and the Nest cam live stream is still going, looking south as normal ready for impact: https://video.nest.com/live/OIJL3I

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

I need a thunderstorm with a decent Arcus cloud, now I've taken delivery of a Sleipnir vaavud..

20160526_123129.jpg

 

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
59 minutes ago, Harry said:

Just seen that UKMO is going for risk of an isolated thundery shower across Kent and Sussex tonight :cc_confused:

Yep was in our forecast this mid morning. Shower on the coast or flashes in the channel.

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
34 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Does anyone know of any free websites to access the NMM Model?

There are actually loads of different flavours of nmm. The UK based one on netweather for instance will be different to the one on Meteociel. For instance ours has been tuned to better match the weather conditions which prevail here.

You can view the nw one freely here. 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=netwx-sr;sess=

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Location: Leeds
10 minutes ago, Paul said:

Speaking of the netwx (nmm). It's quite keen to bring some showers/storms in overnight

prec06z.png

Time to get giddy William!

#altocumuluscastellanus #prayforwilliam

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
22 minutes ago, Davethedog said:

Time to get giddy William!

#altocumuluscastellanus #prayforwilliam

Hehe!

NW France is going crazy now, with over 80 lightning strikes in the past 20 minutes! I know these are surface based thunderstorms but this could well help the thunderstorms arriving later on tonight. :)

Edited by William Grimsley
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Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia

I havent had a chance to look at all the posts but steering seems to be going along the lines of the 850mb wind direction which is a bonus for the UK. Hopefully it can tap into the CAPE overlap into the south/southwestern parts of the UK for later on.

viewimage-8.png

viewimage-9.png

Edited by Greenday
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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

Elevated thundery downpour in the English Channel now, very surprised!

Anyone in Cornwall near St Austell watch out!

161 lightning strikes in the past 20 minutes now in NW France!

http://www.roscoff-tourisme.com/fr/outils/videos-webcams.php

Edited by William Grimsley
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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

looks all surface based at the mo....the tell tale sign is that lightning activity stops when they are exiting the north french coast........the isolated one heading for plymouth, I'm not so sure about....not electrified currently..............still, nice to see some interesting weather not a million miles away from southern england

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
1 minute ago, ajpoolshark said:

looks all surface based at the mo....the tell tale sign is that lightning activity stops when they are exiting the north french coast........the isolated one heading for plymouth, I'm not so sure about....not electrified currently..............still, nice to see some interesting weather not a million miles away from southern england

We have seen a few lightning strikes from it so far!

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
21 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Hehe!

NW France is going crazy now, with over 80 strikes in the past 20 minutes! I know these are surface based thunderstorms but this could well help the thunderstorms arriving later on tonight. :)

80 strikes in 20 mins??? Pah! That's nothing old bean - remember this event from last year? This was kicking out about 80 strikes per minute :D 

IMG_0475.JPG

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Just now, Ben Sainsbury said:

We have seen a few lightning strikes from it so far!

lol....as soon as I pressed the 'post' button, the realtime lightning map notified of a strike from that one....talk about lousy timing....lol

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
1 minute ago, Harry said:

80 strikes in 20 mins??? Pah! That's nothing old bean - remember this event from last year? This was kicking out about 80 strikes per minute :D 

IMG_0475.JPG

jeez, i remember that beast H.......it bulldozed right through dorset/hants and here.....a flash per second, I thought I was a rave party with those strobes...lol

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