Looking forward to T4

[Chris Sargent]

Sorry, can't help myself but looks like over the next 2 weeks the southern jet stream is sliding north a bit allowing a ridge to build across the southern and central plains. This will allow higher than average temps to build but at the same time cooler air in the west and north east.

so expecting to be chasing more in Iowa than previous years with maybe a trip all the way over to the great lakes. Not seeing the severe outbreaks of the last couple of weeks to continue, but much more isolated severe events.

[Chris Sargent]

Oh I don't like reading thing like this....

 

BEYOND THE DAY 6 (Thur 2nd June) TIMEFRAME...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE IN THE WRN U.S. AND LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN A LESS-FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

Edited May 28, 2016 by Chris Sargent

[Dorsetbred]

Had to happen based on the first two tours, the atmosphere has lost its oomph..

 

[icbinb]

On 5/27/2016 at 21:15, Chris Sargent said:

Not seeing the severe outbreaks of the last couple of weeks to continue, but much more isolated severe events.

The best events this year have been the little ones. This week just gone was a prime example.

Tour 3 looks like hard work, but the CFS is showing good signs of a good Northern Plains stretch for tour 4.

[Paul]

Info packs for our tour 4 guests will be sent out tomorrow  

[Chris Sargent]

Latest from SPC

 

MODELS HINT THAT  A STORM SYSTEM MAY BEGIN MOVING INTO THE PLAINS IN ROUGHLY THE DAY 7 TO 8 TIME FRAME...WHICH COULD INCLUDE AN INCREASE IN SEVERE RISK.

could make the change over on Friday interesting. Here's hoping!

[Chris Sargent]

Looking better....

 

BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD BACK NWD ACROSS THE PLAINS BY D7-D8 AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE E AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSSIBLY MATERIALIZES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THEREAFTER...SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY BEYOND THE D8 TIME FRAME.

[Dorsetbred]

Chris what's your update as from this end (co), it's looking dry and hot through this week it's temps on 90 by the weekend?

[Chris Sargent]

Relative lack of instability petty much everywhere until Saturday. Unstable air should make it to northern plains but a lack of shear will probably kill the chance of supercells. The biggest threat looks to be way east over the weekend; and by way I mean OH or PA!! 

SPC do have a marginal area for D2 & 3 over CO the main threats being hail and wind.

[Dorsetbred]

Golf ball sized hail now reported about 10miles south of Denver around Centennial. Gone very overcast with some cells now rolling off the front range.

[Chris Sargent]

Got to love the DCVZ!

[Paul Sherman]

Early signs that this is going to be an active Tour 4 this year with an uptick in Severe Weather Returning to the Northern High Plains.

[icbinb]

Tour 4 will now end in Winnipeg.

[nsrobins]

Yep - I'm sure Paul will be seriously looking to set up camp near the Canadian border with a decent Northern arm of the jet and moisture return providing opportunities for the next four days.

Where are you guys at?

[Paul Sherman]

Heading to pick up the peeps in Denver then onto Montana. Spending a little time at the Farm atm north of Wichita

[Robin1306]

Say hi to billings if you pass through it. I saw it was storm warned today there!