July 2016 C.E.T. Forecasts

[Matthew.]

16.0 please

[DAVID SNOW]

16.4.

With some warm bits.

 

[mulzy]

17.0C please.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Based on the 12z GFS:

16.1C to the 1st (16.1: +0.2)
14.5C to the 2nd (12.8: -3.1)
14.3C to the 3rd (14.1: -1.8)
15.0C to the 4th (17.0: +1.0)
15.3C to the 5th (16.4: 0.0)
15.2C to the 6th (14.5: -1.8)
15.4C to the 7th (17.1: +0.8)
15.5C to the 8th (16.0: -0.6)
15.7C to the 9th (16.9: +0.6)

15.7C is about about 0.5C below the 81-10 rolling average to the 9th.

[J10]

17.0

[Singularity]

Cool start, warm(er) finish? The latter is hopecasting perhaps!

16.3*C is my rather restrained figure for July.

[AderynCoch]

Reverse-psychology time.

15.0

[Timmytour]

A month of two halves.....or rather two thirds and a third. With a remarkable heatwave from 22nd July onwards lifting a previouslt unremarkable July into a memorable one...... CET 17.80

[seabreeze86]

16.2 please 

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I would like to lower my guess to 16.5C please.

[davehsug]

15.8C please

[stewfox]

16.1c

[March Blizzard]

I'll go for 16.3C, please.

[Norrance]

16.4c please.

[Gael_Force]

15.9 please. 

[crucible72]

16.0 please

[Roger J Smith]

Table of forecasts posted here:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=6

 

 

[Stef]

18.1

[March]

16.5C

[Godber 1]

15.5c please

[Roger J Smith]

July CET 1981-2010 averages, and extremes 1772-2015

date _ CET _ (cum) ____ Max, Min 1772-2014

01 __ 15.9 __ 15.9 ___ 24.6 (2015) __ 10.4 (1773)

02 __ 15.9 __ 15.9 ___ 22.8 (1976) __ 11.3 (1821)

03 __ 15.9 __ 15.9 ___ 24.6 (1976) __ 10.1 (1907)

04 __ 16.0 __ 15.9 ___ 24.7 (1976) __ 10.0 (1965)

05 __ 16.4 __ 16.0 ___ 24.0 (1852) __ 10.7 (1920)

06 __ 16.3 __ 16.1 ___ 23.3 (1976) __ 11.3 (1877)

07 __ 16.3 __ 16.1 __ 22.6 (1923,1976) _ 11.1 (1877)

08 __ 16.6 __ 16.2 __ 21.4 (1870,1976) _ 10.6 (1823)

09 __ 16.3 __ 16.2 ___ 21.6 (1921) __ 11.0 (1856)

10 __ 16.6 __ 16.2 ___ 22.1 (1921) __ 11.2 (1993)

11 __ 16.7 __ 16.3 ___ 22.6 (1783) ___ 9.4 (1888)

12 __ 16.5 __ 16.3 ___ 23.7 (1923) __ 11.0 (1840)

13 __ 16.6 __ 16.3 ___ 24.5 (1808) __ 10.2 (1840)

14 __ 16.8 __ 16.3 ___ 24.4 (1808) __ 11.7 (1961)

15 __ 17.0 __ 16.4 ___ 23.7 (1825) __ 11.5 (1883)

16 __ 16.8 __ 16.4 ___ 22.7 (2003) __ 11.5 (1823)

17 __ 16.3 __ 16.4 ___ 22.3 (1834) __ 11.0 (1892)

18 __ 16.5 __ 16.4 ___ 23.3 (1825) __ 10.1 (1863)

19 __ 16.9 __ 16.4 ___ 24.5 (2006) __ 10.6 (1892)

20 __ 17.2 __ 16.5 ___ 22.9 (1878) ___ 8.7 (1836)

21 __ 16.9 __ 16.5 ___ 23.1 (1868) __ 11.3 (1902)

22 __ 16.9 __ 16.5 ___ 23.2 (1868) __ 11.5 (1902)

23 __ 16.9 __ 16.5 ___ 22.4 (1989) __ 10.1 (1843)

24 __ 16.6 __ 16.5 ___ 23.9 (1818) __ 11.1 (1843)

25 __ 17.0 __ 16.6 ___ 22.7 (2006) __ 10.9 (1920)

26 __ 17.2 __ 16.6 ___ 23.2 (2006) __ 11.0 (1884)

27 __ 17.2 __ 16.6 ___ 21.9 (1948) __ 10.6 (1867)

28 __ 17.4 __ 16.6 ___ 23.7 (1948) __ 11.8 (1886,1891)

29 __ 17.7 __ 16.7 ___ 25.2 (1948) __ 11.0 (1816)

30 __ 17.4 __ 16.7 ___ 23.1 (1948) __ 10.6 (1786)

31 __ 17.2 __ 16.7 __ 23.4 (1943,1995) __ 10.9 (1841)

[Stargazer]

Oops - been offline for a couple of days and forgot I'll say a very average 16.6.

[Evening thunder]

Managed to miss June due to being abroad (not sure what that means in terms of the scoring?), and also forgot to be on time for July.. despite somehow getting 3 months correct I'm not sure I can win due to all the penalty points I'm racking up 

May as well make a guess though, probably a rather mundane 16.5C
 

Edited July 1, 2016 by Evening thunder

[Corrigan87]

Ahhhh im late! My June guess was awful but im gonna try going lowish again 15.9C please

[Roger J Smith]

Evening Thunder -- re the scoring system, it is a blend of average and total scoring points, you might be able to survive missing one month and helpfully the guy in the contest lead at end of May scored rather low in June (I think). I am expecting three or four at least to pass both of us when June scores are tabulated. I would not recommend that anyone miss two months, I think that would scour out enough poiints from the total part to guarantee a low finish.

Also more general note, I did post the July forecasts in a table (see link above) but I probably won't even try to edit in the late forecasts, I will be away for several days now and I will just add on a table of late forecasts (the main reason I do this anyway is informational rather than scoring-related, J-10 does all the scoring). So I am aware there are about five late forecasts already, and I expect to find a few more when I next look in here, which is probably going to be late on 5th. .