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2016 Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Prediction Thread - July


BornFromTheVoid

Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Poll 2016 - July  

9 members have voted

  1. 1. What will the NSIDC daily minimum Arctic sea ice extent be for 2016? (in millions km^2)

    • >7.0
      0
    • 6.8-7.0 (80s average)
      0
    • 6.6-6.8
      0
    • 6.4-6.6 (90s average)
      0
    • 6.2-6.4
      0
    • 6.0-6.2
      0
    • 5.8-6.0
      0
    • 5.6-5.8
      0
    • 5.4-5.6 (00s average)
      0
    • 5.2-5.4
      0
    • 5.0-5.2 (2013 minimum)
      0
    • 4.8-5.0 (2014 minimum)
      0
    • 4.6-4.8
      0
    • 4.4-4.6 (2010s average so far)
      0
    • 4.2-4.4 (2015 minimum)
      0
    • 4.0-4.2 (2007 minimum)
      1
    • 3.8-4.0
      2
    • 3.6-3.8
      1
    • 3.4-3.6
      1
    • 3.2-3.4 (2012 minimum, lowest on record)
      0
    • 3.0-3.2
      1
    • 2.8-3.0
      1
    • 2.6-2.8
      0
    • 2.4-2.6
      0
    • <2.4
      1


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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Poll number 4 of the summer. The average guess from the last poll was 3.54 million, up from 3.03 million in May, but with a lot less votes.

After a slow melt in June, most extent and area measures are mixed, with 2016 somewhere between lowest and 3rd lowest on record. With volume, 2012 now has a clear lead, while 2016 now sits in 3rd, quite close to 2010, 2011 and 2013. With the weather looking highly favourable for melt over the next 10 days, lowest on record is still very much a possibility.

Here are the daily minima since 2000, and the 80s and 90s averages.

 80s     6.963
 90s     6.423
2000    5.943
2001    6.567
2002    5.625
2003    5.969
2004    5.770
2005    5.314
2006    5.746
2007    4.147
2008    4.548
2009    5.047
2010    4.590
2011    4.333
2012    3.340
2013    5.040
2014    4.988
2015    4.341

As always, voting is set to private.

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  • 3 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Extent measurements have dropped back to around 3rd or 4th lowest on record over the last few weeks, while area is more mixed.
CT area is a around 3rd lowest, while the high resolution area measurements produced by Wipneus on the sea ice forum is still lowest on record by around quarter of a million km2, with signs of a very early melt in the central Arctic.

What do these contrasting observations mean? One interpretation is that the lower area measurements are a sign that the ice is spreading out more and the concentrations is lowering, just not enough for it to register on the extent measurements. If this continues, then it's just a matter of time until the ice does drop below the 15% concentration and we see large falls in extent. Or, area begins to move closer to the extent rankings and the chances of a record low diminish.

Interesting final ~8 weeks remaining anyway, with anything from a new record low to outside of the bottom 5 still a possibility.

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

I wouldn't be surprised if we have an extended melt with a very late bottom this season (like 2007) as although the synoptics are keeping the coldest air within the Arctic circle, the rest of the northern hemisphere looks likes its in the oven. The 10C 850hPa isotherm looks particularly far north on average this year and SSTs are very warm. Where it will end up, probably 3.7ish I think.

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