Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards

[chapmanslade]

1 hour ago, Harry said:

 

Conditions are seldom good in the UK for warm front triggered thunderstorms however given the instability present it just may well do the trick.

Really ? I would say just the opposite with WAA N from France regularly giving storms

[Harry]

Advection of unstable warm and humid air does indeed often lead to thundery conditions but that is not the same as a dynamic warm front. 

[Harry]

45 minutes ago, weather09 said:

Can't see a warm front moving north over the country Tues - 18z analysis showed a warm front over NI/Irish Sea, to be situated over N Scotland tomorrow midday, with parent sfc low out over the Atlantic.  Secondary sfc low(s) look to develop on the periphery to the S/SW late Tues - as upper trough and forcing aloft migrates eastward - which will track NE across the country bringing significant increase in low-level moisture and instability.  

GFS's sig. tornado/supercell parameter outputs look colourful for early Weds across regions of interest given considerable increase in winds and slight turn with height.  This together with plenty of moisture and instability and forcing for ascent with upper trough and shortwave disturbances aloft points to risk of severe convective weather.  Wales, N England and Scotland the main areas of interest atm.   

Indeed - Beeb has been showing a warm front moving up from the south, however FAX chart does not show this.

[weather09]

Ah yes, just saw it. Small warm front lol. Bit odd that official Met synoptic outputs aren't showing it. Think the focus, though, will be as 500mb heights fall from the west, together with disturbances aloft running north engaging very moist and unstable air mass.  Steering flow looks like it might be southerly with sfc low tracking NE.  Close call for here, then...

Edited July 17, 2016 by weather09

[Dangerous55019]

I see that my area (North East Wales) is still looking like we could get some juicy storms during the coming week 

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

This thread becomes the best in the whole forum in events like this, and it seems that I've finally got a chance to see some big storms for once here (W Scotland)!!

 

 

It's good to be back on here also, it's been a while!! :)

[Costa Del Fal]

18 minutes ago, weather09 said:

Ah yes, just saw it. Small warm front lol. Bit odd that official Met synoptic outputs aren't showing it. Think the focus, though, will be as 500mb heights fall from the west, together with disturbances aloft running north engaging very moist and unstable air mass.  Steering flow looks like it might be southerly with sfc low tracking NE.  Close call for here, then...

Certainly a fairly close call for us here in this region. Of course not to be taken too literally but I think recent GFS runs have brought ppn eastward a little or at least increased the eastward extent/coverage of potential storms overnight Tuesday and during Wednesday. So whilst the bulk of ppn still currently looks to favour the far SW, Wales, IOM and NW England into Scotland, I think there has been some switch to bring the W Midlands and more central parts of N England into play. Going by the GFS, areas west and north of a line from about Yeovil, Bristol, Coventry, Sheffield and Newcastle would have a chance at something imo. All likely to change still though.

[Ben Sainsbury]

6 minutes ago, Costa Del Fal said:

Certainly a fairly close call for us here in this region. Of course not to be taken too literally but I think recent GFS runs have brought ppn eastward a little or at least increased the eastward extent/coverage of potential storms overnight Tuesday and during Wednesday. So whilst the bulk of ppn still currently looks to favour the far SW, Wales, IOM and NW England into Scotland, I think there has been some switch to bring the W Midlands and more central parts of N England into play. Going by the GFS, areas west and north of a line from about Yeovil, Bristol, Coventry, Sheffield and Newcastle would have a chance at something imo. All likely to change still though.

What's positive to note for us is the highest instability is furthest east of this region. And from previous experiences the furthest east of any ppn (MCS) are the most electrified too.

[Summer Sun]

Early warnings 

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-07-19

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-07-20

[Boro Snow]

Looks good for us gav

[Ben Sainsbury]

Does anyone hate the phrase used by the BBC "thundery showers" when we're seeing such extraodinary ingredients forecast?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

25 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Does anyone hate the phrase used by the BBC "thundery showers" when we're seeing such extraodinary ingredients forecast?

Yes. Quite irritating to a meteorologically minded person! A bit dangerous in my liking if you ask me too, especially when it is a compulsory forecast to warn the public. Getting golfball sized hail and high lightning frequencies is a bit more than a thundery shower! Such things if possible should be clearly mentioned! 

Pretty sure that they failed to warn of it on the remarkable day of June 28th 2012 and only forecasted ''thundery showers''. A bit silly, given that they must've known full well of the ingredients early that day that such events were possible and did happen. 

Edited July 17, 2016 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Convective]

1 hour ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Does anyone hate the phrase used by the BBC "thundery showers" when we're seeing such extraodinary ingredients forecast?

If you hadn't have posted this, I was going to after watching 'Weather for the Week Ahead'. Absolutely hate it when they label them "thundery showers" - something you get in winter during a heavy sleet shower with the odd rumble of thunder, not potentially severe thunderstorms...

[Speedway Slider]

The phrase "Thundery Shower/s" should be banned from use....

Heavy rain, chance of thunder..

Or

Thunderstorms 

 

 

[cheese]

5 hours ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Does anyone hate the phrase used by the BBC "thundery showers" when we're seeing such extraodinary ingredients forecast?

BBC's forecast for Leeds/Yorkshire on Wednesday:

Quote

Wednesday chance of intense thunderstorms, very warm and humid, until the evening when dry and fresher conditions arrive. Thereafter temperatures closer to normal with sunshine and showers, these mainly Friday.

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

Now this looks very tasty for Tuesday night into Wednesday!

[weather09]

No change to main risk regions this morning - NI, Scotland initial risk late Tues/early hours Weds, then further destablisation over Wales north and east into N England and Scotland from morning and into the afternoon before clearing into the north sea.  As usually is the case with these types of setups, things tend not to follow expectations, however has been run on run consistency now on the more likely track of storms.  Conditions certainly conducive to severe storms capable of producing copious amounts of lightning, large hail and severe convective winds.  

 

[weirpig]

7 minutes ago, weather09 said:

No change to main risk regions this morning - NI, Scotland initial risk late Tues/early hours Weds, then further destablisation over Wales north and east into N England and Scotland from morning and into the afternoon before clearing into the north sea.  As usually is the case with these types of setups, things tend not to follow expectations, however has been run on run consistency now on the more likely track of storms.  Conditions certainly conducive to severe storms capable of producing copious amounts of lightning, large hail and severe convective winds.  

 

Yep it looks like the track of the storm could well be more to the west of the country   maybe skirting our region.  There is a chance it could move east or west over the coming runs and i would allow a 50 mile lee way either way,  a interesting few days coming up.

[Tempest]

Looking good fo me here but will just have to wait and see what happens. Taken me a long time to realise that the forecasts for thunderstorms can be way off  am ever hopeful.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

A bit early I know but is Gloucester a good place to aim for after work tomo? I'm setting up the bed in the back of the van so I can pull an all-nighter (which will very likely be the case as its looking to be an early-morning event).

Travelling up north isn't realistically an option for financial and logistical reasons - and also as it appears for now that the southern and eastern extents of the areas affected are probably going to see the most 'severe' elements and highest potency.

Again, I appreciate we're not even in the 24hr window for this event yet but it's becoming increasingly clear that chasing is going to most likely be a requirement if I'm going to see anything of any note!

[Martin Auld]

Met office have issued a yellow warning now... and so it begins

[weather09]

Met office's wording is aligned with mine...

Where do I sign? 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I'm really banking on a significant eastward shift now - comoncomoncomon!

[Evening thunder]

Hmm seems increasingly likely I will miss out on this one.

Often too far west, but now too far east/south.

[weirpig]

16 minutes ago, Martin Auld said:

Met office have issued a yellow warning now... and so it begins

Yes they have  i must say  it is a bit of a broad brush warning  didnt think i would see the warning that far east    still all to play for.