What has happened to August!

[B87]

2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Next week is looking

Yeah, sub-20c highs and a 9c low on the forecast.  What a joke!

Roll on summer 2017!

[lassie23]

15 minutes ago, B87 said:

Yeah, sub-20c highs and a 9c low on the forecast.  What a joke!

Roll on summer 2017!

or roll on winter

[B87]

6 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

or roll on winter

Hopefully we will get a winter like 07/08, then the spring of 2011 and at least a normal summer next year!

[Wildswimmer Pete]

32 minutes ago, B87 said:

Yeah, sub-20c highs and a 9c low on the forecast.  What a joke!

Roll on summer 2017!

Problem is, when you reach my age you mightn't live long enough to see the next summer, that's why this current run of lousy summers saddens me.  If we are actually entering a Grand Minimum the next run of decent summers could be 20-30 years down the road. 

[Chris K]

2 hours ago, Mountain Snow said:

Autumn arrived right on cue yesterday with heavy rain and strong winds. I count August as an autumn month now with Summer returning in September. September being the most reliable month in recent years for dry settled weather.

I feel September often delivers some of the most prolonged settled weather as Summer draws to a close. It may just be selective memory, but when I was growing up in school we often went away to Cornwall for 2 weeks during August and had relatively mixed fortunes in terms of weather. I just seem to remember more settled Septembers than unsettled? Particularly in the first half.

I do get why September warmth doesn't "feel the same" for some, as obviously you start seeing nature approach Autumn mode and the nights are more noticeably drawing in. We haven't had any heatwaves in March/April for a while though!? However I do remember the hot spell end of Sept/start of October a couple of years back...that was weird haha. We were sat on the beach in the Gower Peninsula at 2am, a few cheeky beers saying to each other "Guys...it's warm at 2am...in October!?"

[stainesbloke]

Another August, another load of boring average or below average weather and poor model output. Or are the Met Office still confident of a 'southerly flow' come mid-month? All I can see is troughing yet again.

[MP-R]

I think there's often a lot of selective memory involved. A lot of people say September and May are good months but it's probably because expectations from the general public are lower in these months than the summer, so settled weather sticks out more then, and unsettled weather sticks out more fit being a hindrance during the summer months.

I can remember a few settled Septembers as a whole, but in reality, it's rarely settled for more than a week. Looking back through the archives, by the 10th September, only 2014, 2009 and 2007 stick out as settled in recent times.

[B87]

16 minutes ago, MP-R said:

I think there's often a lot of selective memory involved. A lot of people say September and May are good months but it's probably because expectations from the general public are lower in these months than the summer, so settled weather sticks out more then, and unsettled weather sticks out more fit being a hindrance during the summer months.

I can remember a few settled Septembers as a whole, but in reality, it's rarely settled for more than a week. Looking back through the archives, by the 10th September, only 2014, 2009 and 2007 stick out as settled in recent times.

I think most people consider September as an extension of summer, as it doesn't feel very 'autumnal'. It's the least windy time of year, is often dry, and the trees are still green.

We haven't had a good May for ages.  I think the last ones were in 2011 and 2008.

April is usually a settled and sunny month here (with a few exceptions like 2016, 2013, 2008).

Edited August 4, 2016 by B87

[MP-R]

39 minutes ago, B87 said:

I think most people consider September as an extension of summer, as it doesn't feel very 'autumnal'. It's the least windy time of year, is often dry, and the trees are still green.

We haven't had a good May for ages.  I think the last ones were in 2011 and 2008.

April is usually a settled and sunny month here (with a few exceptions like 2016, 2013, 2008).

Haven't met many that think that tbh. More are acutely aware of the cooler mornings and shortening days.

Since 2004, June is on average my least windy month, shortly followed by April, then February and September. November is the windiest month here. 

[B87]

6 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Haven't met many that think that tbh. More are acutely aware of the cooler mornings and shortening days.

Since 2004, June is on average my least windy month, shortly followed by April, then February and September. November is the windiest month here. 

Averages in September are about the same as in June (20c/11c vs 21c/12c), but highs in September are more stable. I don't think a 1c difference in average low would be as noticeable as a 1c difference in average high.

By the end of September/start of October, highs are around 18c, but the trees usually don't start changing colour until mid-October.  October and November are the stereotypical Autumn months here - they are often windy/rainy, with leaves turning and falling.  We usually get our first frost at the end of November.

Edited August 4, 2016 by B87

[Nick L]

17 hours ago, Weather-history said:

What has happened to August?

Nothing, it is still in the calendar. 

 

I made a post before in the summer 2016 thread on other periods where August was a poor month. 

Facts don't tend to stop a good moan sadly. 

[Summer of 95]

1 hour ago, B87 said:

I think most people consider September as an extension of summer, as it doesn't feel very 'autumnal'. It's the least windy time of year, is often dry, and the trees are still green.

We haven't had a good May for ages.  I think the last ones were in 2011 and 2008.

April is usually a settled and sunny month here (with a few exceptions like 2016, 2013, 2008).

2016 was the sunniest May since 2001 here, much sunnier than 2008 which was very dull in the second half. It's the only month since last June to be notably sunnier than normal. There haven't been many good Mays recently, but few awful ones either- the worst was definitely 2015 which failed to reach 20C once. 

 

[B87]

25 minutes ago, Summer of 95 said:

2016 was the sunniest May since 2001 here, much sunnier than 2008 which was very dull in the second half. It's the only month since last June to be notably sunnier than normal. There haven't been many good Mays recently, but few awful ones either- the worst was definitely 2015 which failed to reach 20C once. 

 

May 2016 here had slightly above average temps and slightly below average sun.  May 2013 and 2010 were both awful.  May 2012 would have comfortably been the coldest on record, but the heatwave in the last week helped the temperatures get near average.

[damianslaw]

I've never rated August, on average its far duller than May, June and July, symbiotic of how distant the longest day is becoming...it is also far wetter, indeed it can be one of the wettest months of the year. Westerly airstreams traditionally gain the upper hand. In recent years we have seen a more southerly tracking jetstream which is the key reason why conditions have often been average temp wise at best - with the azores high forced to stay in situ, this wasn't the case during many of the augusts of the 90's and 00's until 2007 when we saw a marked change.

There were very poor Augusts in the 80's though, 1985 and 1988, 1987 spring to mind, 1986 was exceptionally cool as well. The cool wet dull August followed by the mild dry sunny September has become a regular occurance, but sunny dry days with the light fading at 7pm are a waste compared to ones when the light doesn't fade until around 9pm. There is a rapid rate of daylight loss through August and September more especially. May and June are far better months than August on average here, yes not as warm by a long chalk, but often much drier, sunnier and settled.

[hillbilly]

36 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I've never rated August, on average its far duller than May, June and July, symbiotic of how distant the longest day is becoming...it is also far wetter, indeed it can be one of the wettest months of the year. Westerly airstreams traditionally gain the upper hand. In recent years we have seen a more southerly tracking jetstream which is the key reason why conditions have often been average temp wise at best - with the azores high forced to stay in situ, this wasn't the case during many of the augusts of the 90's and 00's until 2007 when we saw a marked change.

There were very poor Augusts in the 80's though, 1985 and 1988, 1987 spring to mind, 1986 was exceptionally cool as well. The cool wet dull August followed by the mild dry sunny September has become a regular occurance, but sunny dry days with the light fading at 7pm are a waste compared to ones when the light doesn't fade until around 9pm. There is a rapid rate of daylight loss through August and September more especially. May and June are far better months than August on average here, yes not as warm by a long chalk, but often much drier, sunnier and settled.

There were some poor Augusts in the 80s,being 1985,86,87 and 88 and I think 1980 was not great but you failed to mention a great 1981,decent 1982 and three hot months of 1983,84 and 89,how I would like the 80s augusts back at the moment !!

[MP-R]

9 hours ago, B87 said:

Averages in September are about the same as in June (20c/11c vs 21c/12c), but highs in September are more stable. I don't think a 1c difference in average low would be as noticeable as a 1c difference in average high.

By the end of September/start of October, highs are around 18c, but the trees usually don't start changing colour until mid-October.  October and November are the stereotypical Autumn months here - they are often windy/rainy, with leaves turning and falling.  We usually get our first frost at the end of November.

Trees are already turning here mate, partly due to lack of rain I think. Then, after Monday's deluge, gutters have been full of leaves. Indeed, mid-October, November and December seems to the most reliably Atlantic unsettled time of year.

[cheeky_monkey]

19 hours ago, B87 said:

Averages in September are about the same as in June (20c/11c vs 21c/12c), but highs in September are more stable. I don't think a 1c difference in average low would be as noticeable as a 1c difference in average high.

By the end of September/start of October, highs are around 18c, but the trees usually don't start changing colour until mid-October.  October and November are the stereotypical Autumn months here - they are often windy/rainy, with leaves turning and falling.  We usually get our first frost at the end of November.

The UK does not do Autumn not really..my favourite time of the year is Autumn in Alberta..trees start to turn in the third week in August and by Mid September the whole countryside is awash with yellows and orange..weather is usually great in September with warm sunny days and cool/cold nights..the first snows usually arrive the first or second week of October..but those 6 weeks from end of August are something the UK doesn't even get close to.

Edited August 5, 2016 by cheeky_monkey

[Lettucing Gutted]

On ‎05‎/‎08‎/‎2016 at 07:58, cheeky_monkey said:

The UK does not do Autumn not really..my favourite time of the year is Autumn in Alberta..trees start to turn in the third week in August and by Mid September the whole countryside is awash with yellows and orange..weather is usually great in September with warm sunny days and cool/cold nights..the first snows usually arrive the first or second week of October..but those 6 weeks from end of August are something the UK doesn't even get close to.

Your making me jealous!  "Autumn" in Blighty is now fast becoming 1 long hot Indian Summer interspersed with mild Atlantic mush and the odd toppler or/and Inversion Cold snap, with true autumn patterns (storms!) now only arriving in "winter" and "spring" with scarcely even any Inversion Cold or topplers!

 

I wouldn't read too much into the August decline post 2004.  We always seem to get these quirky exceptions to the greater changes effecting other months.  Remember the cool 1960s?  This decade actually was the warmest decade for both June and October at least until the 2000s.  June and October then cooled into the 1970s and didn't start warming dramatically again until the 2000s.  The cool but very changeable 1970s was also the warmest decade on record for December.  The very cold December 1981 also masked an otherwise very mild decade for December in the 1980s which was again another cool but very changeable decade for the other months.  December also erratically cooled from 1990 through 2010 which of course was an otherwise very warm period for the rest of the year.  On the other hand the very mild 2010s seem to be masking the exceptional cold of December 2010 and March 2013 so far.

1 thing that can really shake things up in August is the paths of former Atlantic Hurricanes.  The often reviled August 2014 had good potential to be very warm as with the rest of 2014 however an abrupt and rapid shift in the path of Ex-hurricane Bertha from Iceland southeast into France caused a complete but temporary flip in the otherwise stubborn Mid-Atlantic Trough/Eurotrash Ridge pattern with northerlies and cold zonality westerlies giving us our coldest August since 1993 only for the Mid-Atlantic Trough/Eurotrash Ridge pattern to return once August was over.  In a similar vain the southerly tracking Ex-hurricane Charley in the August Bank Holiday of 1986 played a key role in maintaining the very cold North Atlantic Blocking and southerly tracking Jetstream pattern which had dominated most of 1986 thus giving us a very cold August and very cold September to round off the cold for that year.

On the other hand August 2004 was very wet but also very warm due ex-hurricanes taking a more sluggish northern track through Britain.

Edited August 16, 2016 by Lettucing Gutted

[Weather-history]

On 3 August 2016 at 18:50, Bristle boy said:

August is 3 days old. Come back in a couple of weeks and ask the Q.

Yes, it is lovely today.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

isn't here WH, would say average Aug temps though, but slate grey

[The PIT]

Been a lovely August one or two short sharp showers but blink and you missed it and plenty of warm sunshine and it's only the 5th. Silly post to be honest. Lets have what happened to September before it starts.

[Lake District Blizzards]

On 8/4/2016 at 20:59, damianslaw said:

I've never rated August, on average its far duller than May, June and July, symbiotic of how distant the longest day is becoming...it is also far wetter, indeed it can be one of the wettest months of the year. Westerly airstreams traditionally gain the upper hand. In recent years we have seen a more southerly tracking jetstream which is the key reason why conditions have often been average temp wise at best - with the azores high forced to stay in situ, this wasn't the case during many of the augusts of the 90's and 00's until 2007 when we saw a marked change.

There were very poor Augusts in the 80's though, 1985 and 1988, 1987 spring to mind, 1986 was exceptionally cool as well. The cool wet dull August followed by the mild dry sunny September has become a regular occurance, but sunny dry days with the light fading at 7pm are a waste compared to ones when the light doesn't fade until around 9pm. There is a rapid rate of daylight loss through August and September more especially. May and June are far better months than August on average here, yes not as warm by a long chalk, but often much drier, sunnier and settled.

i think most people are missing the point - yes August is the wettest / most westerly month of summer, but likewise october / novemeber / december are normally very wet and westerly. 

However we have had the likes of December 2010, October 2015, November 2011 that are in complete contrast to what you would normally expect.

add the likes of February 2011, March 2012, April 2011 and 2015, May 2016, June 2014, July 2013, September 2014 and August stands out like a sore thumb as the only month incapable of producing any anomalous settled and warm conditions in the last 10 years. 

[reef]

Its far too early to write off August this year in my opinion. Locally, just going by the GFS 18z we'd be averaging 18.7C to the 21st, which at that point would almost ensure the third warmest summer here since 1976. We've only had 2.0mm of rain so far too, with not much forecast over the next week or so.

Basically a lot can change in a short space of time. I would not be surprised if this summer is looked back on as starting poorly and finishing well.

[cheese]

On 8/4/2016 at 20:59, damianslaw said:

I've never rated August, on average its far duller than May, June and July, symbiotic of how distant the longest day is becoming...it is also far wetter, indeed it can be one of the wettest months of the year. Westerly airstreams traditionally gain the upper hand. In recent years we have seen a more southerly tracking jetstream which is the key reason why conditions have often been average temp wise at best - with the azores high forced to stay in situ, this wasn't the case during many of the augusts of the 90's and 00's until 2007 when we saw a marked change.

There were very poor Augusts in the 80's though, 1985 and 1988, 1987 spring to mind, 1986 was exceptionally cool as well. The cool wet dull August followed by the mild dry sunny September has become a regular occurance, but sunny dry days with the light fading at 7pm are a waste compared to ones when the light doesn't fade until around 9pm. There is a rapid rate of daylight loss through August and September more especially. May and June are far better months than August on average here, yes not as warm by a long chalk, but often much drier, sunnier and settled.

The four sunniest months of the year in percentage terms here are May, July &, August, and September. June isn't much sunnier than April in percent terms. So yes, it is very much dependent on where in the country you live in. Personally, I consider June the 'throwaway' summer month - even a very warm June isn't very impressive and it's much less reliable for warm, sunny weather in these parts. Certainly if we got amazing summer synoptics in June but the rest of summer was average I'd consider it a waste, unless it rivaled 1976. We are currently in what I consider the 'halcyon period' of the year.

I think NW England and Scotland are the only places in the UK where May and June are typically better than August or September because that certainly isn't the case here.

August is the wettest month of the year here, but it falls on fewer days and more of it is convective in nature. 

Edited August 6, 2016 by cheese

[Weather-history]

5 hours ago, reef said:

Its far too early to write off August this year in my opinion. Locally, just going by the GFS 18z we'd be averaging 18.7C to the 21st, which at that point would almost ensure the third warmest summer here since 1976. We've only had 2.0mm of rain so far too, with not much forecast over the next week or so.

Basically a lot can change in a short space of time. I would not be surprised if this summer is looked back on as starting poorly and finishing well.

It's 25 years since August 1991, that summer started off poor with that very chilly June but really picked up during August especially the 2nd half. August 1984 had a hot second half,