Hurricane Gaston

[mezzacyclone]

At long last we have TS "Gaston" 450-500 miles WSW of the CV islands.

fishy future but major 'cane status possible & by its already impressive looks, mass, environment/conditions etc then a TS (Gaston) is highly likely by late tomoz?

Next update 4am (bst)

Edited August 30, 2016 by Paul
Edited title as it's now hurricane Gaston

[Singularity]

It is in my mind the most Pacific-looking Atlantic early-stage tropical cyclone that I can recall seeing since I began tracking the tropics closely in 2010. 

This being because Pacific typhoons tend to be large circulations which develop extensive deep convection as the move over sufficiently warm waters, as opposed to tropical waves closing off into smaller circulations that can then slowly but surely grow in size.

Pre TD7 was pretty much a large low pressure system as it exited Africa but it seems the convection and/or surface winds have taken until now to qualify the system for tropical depression status.

I can't wait to track this system as it matures into a powerful cyclone - assuming of course that ECM and GFS have not been leading us up the garden path in that respect.

Given the sheer size of the circulation, it will be interesting to see how slowly (or not) it intensifies as and when conditions are particulate favourable - and of course how well it stands up to any less favourable conditions it encounters. Interestingly the low seems to be well established right up to the upper troposphere - I wonder if this means that the atmosphere around will tend to be modified by the system more than having a modifying effect on the system...?

[mezzacyclone]

9 hours ago, Singularity said:

I can't wait to track this system as it matures into a powerful cyclone - assuming of course that ECM and GFS have not been leading us up the garden path in that respect.

Given the sheer size of the circulation, it will be interesting to see how slowly (or not) it intensifies as and when conditions are particulate favourable - and of course how well it stands up to any less favourable conditions it encounters. Interestingly the low seems to be well established right up to the upper troposphere - I wonder if this means that the atmosphere around will tend to be modified by the system more than having a modifying effect on the system...?

We are only the general public with an amateurs insight but i assume we would majoritively favour hurricane progression based on our own views & findings?

&  i agree that this does not seem to be a usual run-of-the-mill disturbance somehow?

late yesterday a segment of sal towards the west & north seemed to be kept at bay & not ingested? plus 25-30kn of shear easterlies in roughly the same location only minimally delayed classification?

i did see 2 surface/low level wind circulations trying to form on a straight axis & their was a long eddy of cloud convection stretching westwards underneath nearer 5'N lat?

if only the eastern seaboard ridge strengthened then full scale "hurricane preparedness" could consume the enture caribbean & florida?

 

[Nouska]

The mimic total precipitable water animation is revealing.

This morning's models not quite as intense but still a beast in the making.

[mezzacyclone]

Maybe they wont rush `Cane status due to minimal land threat?

[summer blizzard]

Not a cane (no real eyewall), just a very well defined circulation.

[Singularity]

4 hours ago, mezzacyclone said:

We are only the general public with an amateurs insight but i assume we would majoritively favour hurricane progression based on our own views & findings?

&  i agree that this does not seem to be a usual run-of-the-mill disturbance somehow?

late yesterday a segment of sal towards the west & north seemed to be kept at bay & not ingested? plus 25-30kn of shear easterlies in roughly the same location only minimally delayed classification?

i did see 2 surface/low level wind circulations trying to form on a straight axis & their was a long eddy of cloud convection stretching westwards underneath nearer 5'N lat?

if only the eastern seaboard ridge strengthened then full scale "hurricane preparedness" could consume the enture caribbean & florida?

 

Gaston is certainly a tropical storm on steroids now - the intensity is climbing steadily past 60 mph based on the latest satellite estimates, and the entire convective envelope continues to display an impressively symmetrical form.

I have noticed in my years of watching that cyclones which are well-stacked during their development stages tend to become particularly resilient to aspects such as wind shear and dry air later in their lifetime. The outer convective bands tend to ward off the dry air, while upper level divergence associated with the core convection produces an upper-level anticyclone which can reduce the wind shear in the vicinity of the system.

I wouldn't be all that surprised to see Gaston have at least a go at becoming annular during its peak, which would lead to an interesting prognosis as the system interacted with the Atlantic jet during its final days. Under climate change, some research points toward an increased incidence of 'hybrid super-storms' such as Sandy of 2012, which take on frontal characteristics while retaining some tropical characteristics, so something like that might be worth watching out for too - but this is highly speculative of course and such events should still be rare even in a warmer world.

Model guidance suggests a ridge across the NE U.S. as Gaston attempts to make its exit toward the high latitudes. This may result in a track that passes close to the Azores. There's also a low risk of a left-hook such as Sandy produced, but only if the eastward extent of the aforementioned ridge is being (drastically?) underdone.

[The PIT]

Is this system now dead???

[Nouska]

1 hour ago, The PIT said:

Is this system now dead???

Far from it - a bit slower off the blocks than models predicted - Just become the third Atlantic hurricane of the season.

000
WTNT62 KNHC 250415
TCUAT2

HURRICANE GASTON TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016
1215 AM AST THU AUG 25 2016

...GASTON BECOMES THE THIRD HURRICANE OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON...

Dropsonde data from a NASA/NOAA Global Hawk mission indicate that
Gaston has strengthened to a hurricane. The maximum winds are
estimated to be 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts.
 

 

[Summer Sun]

Gaston's track later next week

If it goes up towards Iceland high pressure should build if not we'll be in for some wet 'n' windy weather

[knocker]

MOD> guidance

[Summer Sun]

Nothing to worry about with Gaston on this mornings runs if GEM is correct Iceland are in for a right old storm

Edited August 26, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

ECM has Gaston staying well out in the Atlantic and unable to move thanks to a huge area of high pressure

 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

let's hope it turns out that way then SS, soon as you posted name, it reminded me of gaston gaudio the tennis player

[summer blizzard]

Gaston is chugging along with little to prevent strengthening over the next 48-72 hours. Forecast to peak at 110mph.

[Summer Sun]

Here we go....

UK ON HURRICANE ALERT

Hurricane Gaston to batter Britain with chaotic 70mph blasts

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1686889/hurricane-gaston-to-batter-britain-with-chaotic-70mph-blasts/?CMP=spklr-_-Editorial-_-TWITTER-_-TheSunNewspaper-_-20160828-_-News-_-555386875

[summer blizzard]

Gaston now at 90mph and strengthening. 

A beauty..

[summer blizzard]

As suspected given how good it looks, Gaston is now a category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 105mph.

[summer blizzard]

Looks even better now, bigger and symmetrical.

[summer blizzard]

Gaston is now a major hurricane, 115mph.

[Summer Sun]

Gaston is nowhere near Flordia...

[summer blizzard]

Ha. Confused with TD9.

Certainly an attractive hurricane, almost textbook.

[The PIT]

Title needs changing to Hurricane Gaston

[The PIT]

Sounds like Gaston is trying to a eye wall replacement http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/291447.shtml

[summer blizzard]

Gaston has also now made the turn NE so from here on it will interact with the mid-lattitude westerlies.