Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 02/09/16 onwards


Supacell

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, rain, tornados, funnel clouds and the northern lights
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
On 06/09/2016 at 17:33, The PIT said:

Errr no it's already Autumn. You still can get storms even in winter if the conditions are right

Technically it is, but until the trees turn brown and leaves are dropping en masse I still count it as summer as Autumn doesn't start until halfway through September on my calendar.

Storms in winter are extremely unlikely in my experience, but as I said above in my post I have witnessed thundersnow twice before so its not impossible.

Edited by Windblade
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

 Depends where you live. Thunder  is quite common here in many years during winter caused by the so-called lake effect/ Ocean effect. 

  This close to the coast it tends to be accompanied bye graupel  rather than snow. I don't think I've actually seen pure thunder-snow. 

Edited by Chris.R
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
3 hours ago, Windblade said:

Technically it is, but until the trees turn brown and leaves are dropping en masse I still count it as summer as Autumn doesn't start until halfway through September on my calendar.

Storms in winter are extremely unlikely in my experience, but as I said above in my post I have witnessed thundersnow twice before so its not impossible.

I've come out of the no storms thread in Jan every year since I moved here. Although my longest storm, started at about midnight  and lasted til around mid day in either November or October . In 2014. 

And the night before I was watching flashes from a storm on the french coast doing the same thing, just hugging the coast.

Edited by alexisj9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Humid Continental Climate (Dfa / Dfb)
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
8 hours ago, Windblade said:

Technically it is, but until the trees turn brown and leaves are dropping en masse I still count it as summer as Autumn doesn't start until halfway through September on my calendar.

Storms in winter are extremely unlikely in my experience, but as I said above in my post I have witnessed thundersnow twice before so its not impossible.

We had thunder on Christmas day a few years back and in 2010 we had lying snow.

I wish our weather would make its mind up. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

I'm seeing a similar event to 19th September 2014 potentially unfolding. Given that sea temps in the S North Sea and parts of the English Channel are near to 20c, storms should be able to sustain themselves better I'd have thought. The charts look very similar to that date mentioned above. Remember it being very still, muggy and some awesome clear cut lightning in an anvil top over Essex. September can still be good if all the ingredients come to fruition. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

And lets hope it goes with a BIG BANG mid-late next week:D

maybe our last hara.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire

its been a fairly fascinating year for synoptics - i honestly can't remember a succession of plumes like this that have produced literally no thunder for my area.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
11 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

I'm seeing a similar event to 19th September 2014 potentially unfolding. Given that sea temps in the S North Sea and parts of the English Channel are near to 20c, storms should be able to sustain themselves better I'd have thought. The charts look very similar to that date mentioned above. Remember it being very still, muggy and some awesome clear cut lightning in an anvil top over Essex. September can still be good if all the ingredients come to fruition. 

Yes please! Remember the night well (well, 18th September here), it ended up being the best storm of the year, more so than the ones on the same date in July. The sheer amount of lightning was something else!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, rain, tornados, funnel clouds and the northern lights
  • Location: NW Bexley, Kent

Thanks for the replies everyone. Yes, it does look like there may be some hope in winter (although obviously somewhat diminished compared to the summer). Anyway, just spotted this just as I'm leaving work...

 

Looks like its trying. The sky was black as night over there a few minutes before, then this came out of nowhere.

IMG_20160909_162606098.jpg

IMG_20160909_162547234_HDR.jpg

Edited by Windblade
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and breezy with a bit of cloud, about 20C
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex

There was some threatening clouds to the West but they've all reduced right down to almost nothing

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

Looks like middle of next week is promising.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Middle of this coming week looks very promising! GFS retains the heat longer, meaning storms to the W and SW of Britain initially and then the chance of some continental imports out of NE France and Belgium perhaps on the Wednesday night! 

What a September this could prove to be. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)

Looking good on this side of the channel for Tuesday into Wednesday/Thursday! Storms may well set off mainland (here) and progress. Let's see...

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

.. just catching up on this! A nice, slack, low pressure just sat over the SW quadrant of the UK, it could prove to be very fruitful. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

Morning all ,looking like some good potential this week ,but at this range  detail hard to pin down .

Could be some very large rainfall totals as fronts become slow moving .

Would be great to see some storms later in the day ,with more darker hours hoping for some good lightning displays ,and let us enjoy any warm weather, as soon i suppose Winter will be knocking on our doors ,cheers gang  .

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 12 Sep 2016 - 05:59 UTC Tue 13 Sep 2016

ISSUED 19:38 UTC Sun 11 Sep 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Sharpening Atlantic upper trough will continue to dig southwards to the west of Iberia, while pivoting to the NE. This will allow northward advection of high a ThetaW airmass on the forward side of the upper trough, ahead of a cold front. Strong, near-parallel flow along this frontal boundary will likely result with episodes of line convection along the cold front, capable of producing gusty winds and perhaps some isolated lightning - hence a fairly broad LOW threat level issued as the front migrates eastwards with time. Overall coverage of lightning is expected to be fairly small, if any. Given strong shear and low cloud bases, there may be scope for an isolated funnel/tornado.

 

Overnight, as the upper trough begins to slowly disrupt, backing the upper flow, some destablisation may occur ahead of the cold front with hints of elevated convection advecting into and/or developing in-situ over parts of Devon/Cornwall late in the night, and perhaps also across the Channel Islands. Given notably steep mid-level lapse rates and strong DLS, there is scope for an upgrade to SLGT - but have refrained at this time due to a lack of cross-model agreement and also the close proximity to running into the next forecast period (for Tuesday).

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-09-12

largethumb.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

I feel I may need to take a trip to NW England at some point this coming week. Obviously a long way off in storm forecasting terms but seems to be some agreement on the western fringes of England, Wales and Scotland having a storm risk from late Tuesday to Thursday. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Day 3 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 13 Sep 2016 - 05:59 UTC Wed 14 Sep 2016

ISSUED 21:13 UTC Sun 11 Sep 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

This is an advance forecast issued to highlight the potential for thunderstorms - but given the current lead time, it is likely some aspects will be changed as confidence increases towards the event.

As the sharp Atlantic upper trough disrupts over Biscay during Tuesday, backed mean flow will continue to advect a very warm, moist airmass northwards across the British Isles. The passage of various shortwaves running northwards in this flow may serve as the forcing mechanism to destabilise the mid-levels, east of the main frontal boundary, with scope for outbreaks of primarily elevated convection likely at times. Notably steep mid-level lapse rates, strong DLS and MLCAPE 800-1,200 Jkg-1 suggests any storms that do develop, especially farther east, will produce fairly frequent lightning.

However, the biggest uncertainty surrounds coverage, and this is the primary reason for refraining from issuing any higher threat levels - it is certainly possible that at least a SLGT could be issued nearer the time, once confidence (hopefully) increases, and perhaps even a MDT. Should any convection become rooted within the boundary layer, then all severe hazards would be possible (heavy rain, large hail up to 3.0-4.0cm in diameter and possibly a tornado) - hence this situation needs to be monitored closely for any potential upgrades.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-09-13

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leicester (LE3)
  • Location: Leicester (LE3)

Well, I thought this would be a busier place than it is...... Never mind, going back to a post I made earlier this month about lightning strike evidence (ground strikes, not structures, purely common a garden ground strikes) or rather the fact you don't seem to see much evidence of these, say on golf courses, parks, car parks etc. at all.

Here are a couple I have found online, I expected to find quite a few, but they seem as rare as jellyfish teeth? And I couldn't find any slab, concrete or tarmac strike evidence... So, are ground strikes really really rare, or they just don't leave evidence?

Opinions?

 

 

Screenshot_2016-09-04-14-41-23.png

Screenshot_2016-09-08-18-03-12.png

Edited by Speedway Slider
Predictive text running wild!
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)

Do I know it! It took the phone company 6 months to replace the pole that got struck in January. No strike recorded...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Heatwaves, thunderstorms, cold/snowy spells.
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL

What's happening with those showers near the severn estuary up through the W Midlands? Don't think they have been forecast, adds to the uncertainty of this weeks potential 'thundery downpours or thunderstorms'

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
42 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

What's happening with those showers near the severn estuary up through the W Midlands? Don't think they have been forecast, adds to the uncertainty of this weeks potential 'thundery downpours or thunderstorms'

They are coming from mid to high level cloud, hardly anything reaching the ground as it's evaporating.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
20 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

They are coming from mid to high level cloud, hardly anything reaching the ground as it's evaporating.

surprisingly wet here, steady rain for the past hour from some mid level cloud

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...