Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 02/09/16 onwards

[Windblade]

Yep. I'm waiting for spring with much eagerness. Last year was the most dismal storm year I can ever remember so I'm hoping for better luck this year. Not too long to go til the season kicks off.

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Last year was pretty decent here considering the usual non-events we get, especially that plume destabilization that gave an amazing light show nonstop for about an hour, which was followed by another storm the following morning. Then around a week later came the best direct hit I've ever experienced: frequent lightning, loud thunder, torrential rain and extremely strong winds (convinced there was a rotation around due to the major swings in wind direction at one point, although I'm open to explanation if I'm wrong). THEN, around November time came a smallish storm that wasn't anything special, but it delivered the closest lightning strike I remember, must've been within 20/30 metres of me at the window . All of this happened at night so you can imagine how excited I was! 

Really hoping for more days like those this year, because my Dad always says storms nowadays are nothing like they used to be in the 70s/80s and I really want him to say "aye that was just like back in the day when me and my mates used to hang oot the windy during the storms like dafties" 

[Supacell]

Still over 2 days away but I am keeping my eyes on Monday as a day where there could be a few "spring style" thundery hail showers around.... in winter.

[Weather-history]

There was some weak convection yesterday enough to produce the odd shower with hail

 

[Nick F]

56 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Still over 2 days away but I am keeping my eyes on Monday as a day where there could be a few "spring style" thundery hail showers around.... in winter.

Will be turning quite chilly in the west too on Monday, with low heights and dew points dropping to 0C and below in the brisk Pm westerly flow - could be some wintriness in the showers too with snow over hills in the west.

[Supacell]

4 hours ago, Nick F said:

Will be turning quite chilly in the west too on Monday, with low heights and dew points dropping to 0C and below in the brisk Pm westerly flow - could be some wintriness in the showers too with snow over hills in the west.

Maybe a chance that someone will see thundersnow. If I do, it will be a first as not experienced it before.

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 27 Feb 2017 - 05:59 UTC Tue 28 Feb 2017

ISSUED 18:34 UTC Sun 26 Feb 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper vortex will slide E-wards across the British Isles on Monday, its associated cold mid/upper-levels atop SSTs and diurnally-heated land producing steep lapse rates and generating widespread convection. A frontal wave will be clearing SE England first thing in the morning, followed by a showery trough/quasi-cold front moving east across Midlands/CS England into E Anglia/SE England late morning/early afternoon.

As this secondary feature engages with the departing forcing aloft, at least for a time, there is the potential for better organisation into a broke line of convective clusters capable of producing some notably gusty winds - more especially close to the south coast. Lightning potential in this line is considered relatively low, and much more likely in the post-frontal airmass which will be present across the rest of the British Isles at this time, eventually extending into E Anglia / SE England through the afternoon.

In this airmass, numerous showers and a few weakly-electrified thunderstorms are expected, giving snow to quite low levels, especially where heavy showers occur locally, with numerous hail showers also likely. The risk of lightning is generally greatest across England and Wales, especially considering better DLS towards the east, but still falls short of upgrading to SLGT at this early stage in the season.

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 27 Feb 2017 - 05:59 UTC Tue 28 Feb 2017

ISSUED 18:34 UTC Sun 26 Feb 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper vortex will slide E-wards across the British Isles on Monday, its associated cold mid/upper-levels atop SSTs and diurnally-heated land producing steep lapse rates and generating widespread convection. A frontal wave will be clearing SE England first thing in the morning, followed by a showery trough/quasi-cold front moving east across Midlands/CS England into E Anglia/SE England late morning/early afternoon.

As this secondary feature engages with the departing forcing aloft, at least for a time, there is the potential for better organisation into a broke line of convective clusters capable of producing some notably gusty winds - more especially close to the south coast. Lightning potential in this line is considered relatively low, and much more likely in the post-frontal airmass which will be present across the rest of the British Isles at this time, eventually extending into E Anglia / SE England through the afternoon.

In this airmass, numerous showers and a few weakly-electrified thunderstorms are expected, giving snow to quite low levels, especially where heavy showers occur locally, with numerous hail showers also likely. The risk of lightning is generally greatest across England and Wales, especially considering better DLS towards the east, but still falls short of upgrading to SLGT at this early stage in the season.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-02-27