Hurricane Matthew

[Iceberg]

Something can be deadly but still look good. On the thread we are very careful not to say how amazing everything is but equally we have no control over the hurricane and can appreciate the power of  an amazing force of nature. 

I think Matthew looks amazing to be honest very low shear. 

[Methuselah]

11 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Would that be the end of storm chasing in the states then Pete? People pay a lot of money in the hope of seeing an F5, and we all know what they can do.

Back on topic, and the power of mother nature is certainly something to behold, in this case the monster Matthew.

Okay Dave, hands up...At the end of the day, I guess a 1947-style blizzard wouldn't go a miss? And, you're right enough, there's bugger all we can do about it?

[Iceberg]

Few pictures in daylight close up and the bigger picture showing inflow from s America and outflow to the Bahamas and Atlantic. 

A many tentacled beast.

Edited October 2, 2016 by Iceberg

[Singularity]

Matthew has become simply enormous following the assimilation of the 'blobicane' to its east over the past 12 hours.

Haiti and Jamaica are now seeing the fringes of the outer feeder bands when the core of the storm is still around two days away from its closest pass or arrival.

[summer blizzard]

Agreed on the size. It will also have an upper high right on top of it over the Bahamas so you'd expect the outflow to fan out further (GFS incidentally has it around cat 4 again at the time).

[Mucka]

5 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Okay Dave, hands up...At the end of the day, I guess a 1947-style blizzard wouldn't go a miss? And, you're right enough, there's bugger all we can do about it?

I'm glad you came to that conclusion. It is only like admiring Lions and Tigers even though they are predators and I don't want to see other animals killed and eaten, or being in awe of some other natural event such as a volcanic eruption.

Mother nature will do as mother nature pleases so we may as well have a sense of wonder and awe about it.

[knocker]

The latest from Levi

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

[Iceberg]

Matthew continues to show remarkable resilience. It's moving at a snails pace though. 

This means the ssts are likely very low under Its initial path limited further development. 

Once speed increases though the energy available should increase. 

The other effect is that it reaches the Bahamas later. This means it reaches the ridge when the ridge is stronger and pushes nw sooner. All this takes it closer to the us coast. 

I would start to hazard a guess for a possible path as being up the Florida coast then turning up the carolinas coast. With a possible landfall in nc before it gets out to sea again. 

Still highly uncertain though and still t144-220 away 

[Singularity]

Matthew does seem to be the subject of a 'let's try and make it the worst possible hurricane' competition among the models.

ECM is one of the leaders at the moment, showing Matthew threading the needle between Jamaica and Haiti as a cat 4/5, producing extreme rainfall and in the latter case very strong winds, then slamming into the eastern limits of the Cuban mountain range, releasing a torrent of water as the eye disintegrates - but this doesn't stop the storm spinning up a new one within a day or so of moving into the Bahamas, during which time it moves northwest toward Florida. It then really bombs out in the space of 24 hours, resulting in a Cat 4 (perhaps 5 but this seems crazy) just off the eastern coast of Florida. From this point forward the steering currents break down and Matthew meanders in the general area while miraculously avoiding landfall.

This run is already apocalyptic for Haiti, and comes within a gnats whisker of being devastating for a stretch of the US East Coast. As it is, coastal erosion would be a serious consequence of the ECM 00z solution.

 

Ive used such dramatic language to reduce the likelihood of any interests in the area underestimating this storm, should they happen to be using this site as their primary source of info (for some reason - The NHC is the most important advisor!).

[Iceberg]

942.9 was the pressure measured by the bouy. Even if it happened to measure the lowest presse that's still mighty impressive for a hurricane moving at a slow jogging speed. In reality the minimum pressure could well be 940mb or so. 

On latest sat the health isn't great and will get worse if the speed doesn't increase imho 

[Iceberg]

Recon have started another trip and are on their way. 

On sat Matthew is slow still and struggling to move northwards. Although it is very slowly. 

It has though in the last hr really got angry again. A ring of very deep convection has formed approx 15 miles from the eye wall and it's probably Matthews best attempt yet at an erc

[Iceberg]

Forgot to add hopefully any attempted erc should be viewable on Jamaican Doppler at 400km. 

Currently it's about 50% covered 

also finally Dvorak raw t numbers have just been updated and show the highest value since Saturday. 

Not good timing considering it's approach. 

Edited October 3, 2016 by Iceberg

[Iceberg]

Large dose of 100kt+ winds with recon  

sorry doesn't show very well but surface winds of upto 120kts and flight winds of 124kt

highest for a while 

108 083 026 00 115100 1534N 07444W 6964 02873 9746 +111 +111 146112 115 087 031 00 115130 1533N 07444W 6995 02813 9711 +115 +115 147113 117 089 084 00 115200 1532N 07445W 6950 02840 9679 +118 +118 142121 123 091 074 03 115230 1531N 07446W 6957 02796 9641 +123 //// 146120 124 107 060 05 115300 1530N 07446W 6986 02720 9569 +130 //// 151106 116 118 035 05 115330 1529N 07447W 7000 02665 9509 +139 //// 150086 105 122 015

[Iceberg]

Large expansion of sub 950 pressure particularly in the sw quad indicating that the inner  eye wall has gone but a larger eye wall has formed . Also pressure down to 940 one at 939 which might be discounted  but certainly the lowest pressure recorded in Matthew so far   

If An erc is successful a CAT 5 has to be likely  

at the moment it means an expanded cat 4

 

[weirpig]

It seems in Jamica  quite a few people are not heeding the Governments advice and are staying put in coastal areas   Staying in church and trying to ride the storm out.   This really is a beast of a storm  and as iceberg above has said this could well become a cat 5 again in the not to distant future.

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/03/americas/hurricane-matthew/index.html

[Love Snow]

It's a beauty but at the same time for deadly. What's your opinion on this taking the path towards Floridas East coast would it be a cat 5 at this point if it took this path?

[weirpig]

6 minutes ago, Love Snow said:

It's a beauty but at the same time for deadly. What's your opinion on this taking the path towards Floridas East coast would it be a cat 5 at this point if it took this path?

Most models seem to be taking it just shy of florida  however still much uncertainty  at this  point most probably a cat 2. 

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, Iceberg said:

Large expansion of sub 950 pressure particularly in the sw quad indicating that the inner  eye wall has gone but a larger eye wall has formed . Also pressure down to 940 one at 939 which might be discounted  but certainly the lowest pressure recorded in Matthew so far   

If An erc is successful a CAT 5 has to be likely  

at the moment it means an expanded cat 4

 

Radar shows a good outer eyewall, i'd say it's almost complete. 

22 minutes ago, Love Snow said:

It's a beauty but at the same time for deadly. What's your opinion on this taking the path towards Floridas East coast would it be a cat 5 at this point if it took this path?

A number of models restrengthen it over the Bahamas.

[Jack Wales]

Based on this image, I'd say the new eyewall is 80% complete. The timing is worrying as with the ERC complete -coupled with diminishing shear could herald another phase of Rapid Intensification.  

 

[weirpig]

Greg Postel ✔@GregPostel

Some current wind reports in and around#HurricaneMatthew. That buoy 42058 reported ~34ft waves last night as Matthew closed in

2:14 PM - 3 Oct 2016

 

Wow!!

[summer blizzard]

[Iceberg]

Latest gfs is getting the us worried. 

A coast hugger then a substantial direct hit. 

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

This is looking truly devastating for the Caribbean, and potentially the US too. Cat 5 landfall in Florida? THAT WOULD BE INSANE!!

[summer blizzard]

32 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Latest gfs is getting the us worried. 

A coast hugger then a substantial direct hit. 

Pressure is sub-940mb too so even allowing for some barlonic forcing (though i don't see much) it's a pure blood major hitting near enough Charelston. 

[knocker]

N. Carolina