Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

[Cheshire Freeze]

Further on towards days 9 and 10, the GFS follows the ECM by showing HP to ridge N through the UK which would allow some warm, dry weather to dominate for a few days

However, as I suspected would be the case following on from the ECM day 10 chart, we end up with HP 'overshooting' and allowing LP back in from the SW

All a long way out for now though. I would say the more settled spell of weather shown towards days 9&10 has a fairly decent chance of occurring though given some model consensus.

Edited June 4, 2017 by CreweCold

[A Frayed Knot]

UK METO  are going For a Warmer spell at the end of this working week ' stick to what they say ,instead of above posts .

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 hours ago, A Frayed Knot said:

UK METO  are going For a Warmer spell at the end of this working week ' stick to what they say ,instead of above posts .

That makes no sense, the post above states 'warm, dry weather to dominate for a few days' ??

Also warm doesn't necessarily mean dry- in fact for the N the metoffice says remaining wet for the end of the week. The S should be drier though.

''Wednesday will see a brief drier and brighter interlude, before rain spreads in from the southwest later and into Thursday. Briefly drier and brighter on Friday, before rain arrives later''

[mb018538]

ECM this morning carries on the deconstruction of northern heights out to day 10:



A nice Greenland and Icelandic trough there, and no high pressure over the pole.
 

GFS less bullish, though it is one of the colder runs so may be wide of the mark:

[johnholmes]

Just a genuine question

'deconstruction' why?

Heights declining or falling

'trough deconstruction' 

where on earth do some of you get these expressions from

Highs/ridges decline

troughs fill, or perhaps warm out?

sorry back to the unsettled theme from most models.

[Frosty.]

3 hours ago, johnholmes said:

Just a genuine question

'deconstruction' why?

Heights declining or falling

'trough deconstruction' 

where on earth do some of you get these expressions from

Highs/ridges decline

troughs fill, or perhaps warm out?

sorry back to the unsettled theme from most models.

Trough deconstruction was first used by knocker, that's where the strange term originated.

[mb018538]

It gets the point across!

Anyway, back to the models.

The 6z paints a different theme, with high pressure anchored out west drawing cooler air over the top.



A bit of a cold outlier again. I think that anything after the weekend is up in the air at the moment, there is a range of cool to very warm/hot solutions depending on where the weekend low ends up - thus anything beyond this point will probably be extrapolated wrongly. A case of waiting to see what happens I think, but the overall trend is for an improving picture after the weekend.

 

[johnholmes]

But it does not get the point across, I have searched using Google and cannot find any reference to the word in meteorology so why use it? Simple words mean far more than clever phrases. I suggest this as an ex senior weather forecaster.

[William of Walworth]

15 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Never seen anything like this progged in June before

The 18z GFS is an insane run 

That looks just too insane to be that extreme. Realistically, the odds are surely? that the intensity of those lows would decrease come the day.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, William of Walworth said:

That looks just too insane to be that extreme. Realistically, the odds are surely? that the intensity of those lows would decrease come the day.

Change on 00Z, and 06Z, but could be worse for my location, wet day through Cheshire Gap, in a way preferred the 18Z version, at least it will be mild

Edited June 5, 2017 by I remember Atlantic 252

[phil nw.]

It does look like the unsettled spell will last out this week with the worst of the rain again further west and north although we will all see some as the track of the weather systems affect much of the country.

The T60hrs fax shows another low with it's set of fronts moving in from the south west following hard on the heels of our current low which by then is expected to be heading towards Scandinavia.

We can see a weak transient ridge between the 2 lows which should at least give most of us a dry and brighter day on Wednesday.

Signs of a change to much more Summery weather though in the ECM mean charts for next week

with the Azores high making his move north east towards the UK.

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

All hail GEM if you're looking for good weather!

  

Will be interesting to see how this develops, or disappears in the next week. Would be nice after what this week has in store.

What's also nice to see is the drop in heights over the pole, comparing this Wednesday to next Wednesday:

 

Notice the difference this makes over Scandinavia, allowing high pressure to build giving most of Europe a lovely warm spell. This is exactly what we need for heights to stay put and deliver an overdue hot UK summer, but then the energy leaving Canada may disrupt this pattern as the lows may not be for stalling to our W/SW (generic I know, but way too many variables for me and frankly I know little about a lot of them!).

ECM also goes for this change, although the UK pattern is drastically different:

  

Could be heading in the same direction, but with a slower evolution which may hamper the chances of sustaining the pattern.

Of course we have to consider the fact that this is at the very end of the run, and will undoubtedly change a lot before it's nailed down. Still nice to see these charts showing up, one is just really hoping for a great summer for once! 

[Gael_Force]

2 hours ago, William of Walworth said:

That looks just too insane to be that extreme. Realistically, the odds are surely? that the intensity of those lows would decrease come the day.

I fully expect the on the day charts to be somewhat toned down but as far as actually seeing something similar, you need only go back to June 2012. Surprised that some are "surprised". 

[MP-R]

18 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Never seen anything like this progged in June before

The 18z GFS is an insane run 

Closest comparison I can find for June is this one from 2004:

Other than that, a very rare beast for this time of year.

[Gael_Force]

13 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Closest comparison I can find for June is this one from 2004:

Other than that, a very rare beast for this time of year.

I cannot edit my above post ... here's 4 examples of verified lows from June 2012.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?mode=2&month=6&day=1&year=2012&map=0&hour=12&type=era&region=

 

[MP-R]

7 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

I cannot edit my above post ... here's 4 examples of verified lows from June 2012.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?mode=2&month=6&day=1&year=2012&map=0&hour=12&type=era&region=

 

Forgot about those. In fact can't remember the latter two at all, though do recall the one on the 08th. Looking back at my records, the winds weren't anything impressive here, just very wet. 2004 was both however.

[damianslaw]

Immediate outlook very unsettled - with low pressure dominating affairs, a brief ridge on Wednesday followed by further frontal rain and gusty winds. Not very early summer like, indeed today had an air of autumnal gloom about it here, with constant rain and cool temperatures. 

Longer term - , heights are forecast to lower to the north which in turn could bring a return to more standard summery fayre, i.e. the typical westerly airstream, with rain brushing the NW , warmer and drier to the south east with the azores high vying for place with the atlantic trough. Its all a bit humdrum..

 

[Snowy L]

GFS sticking with the theme of northern blocking discombobulating into next week, which should at least bring warmer weather and probably drier for the south and east.

[mb018538]

19 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

GFS sticking with the theme of northern blocking discombobulating into next week, which should at least bring warmer weather and probably drier for the south and east.

Can you please not use discombobulating as a term for blocking please, it's not in any meteorological texts 

Seriously though, looking a lot better. Awaiting the ecm with interest.

[Optimus Prime]

5 hours ago, William of Walworth said:

That looks just too insane to be that extreme. Realistically, the odds are surely? that the intensity of those lows would decrease come the day.

Don't be fooled, we pretty much see a chart like that every year at that resolution.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Can you please not use discombobulating as a term for blocking please, it's not in any meteorological texts 

Seriously though, looking a lot better. Awaiting the ecm with interest.

ECM substantially better than the GFS 12z for next week in terms of the orientation of the high pressure. GFS has us on the 'wrong' side with light northerlies or nor'easters (shudder) whilst ECM plonks it over us. 850s aren't exactly spectacular but with light winds and a better chance of 'clearer' weather it should feel lovely in any sun. Better than 14C and driving rain

 <--- GFS @216  <--- ECM @216 

 

[Newberryone]

37 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

ECM substantially better than the GFS 12z for next week in terms of the orientation of the high pressure. GFS has us on the 'wrong' side with light northerlies or nor'easters (shudder) whilst ECM plonks it over us. 850s aren't exactly spectacular but with light winds and a better chance of 'clearer' weather it should feel lovely in any sun. Better than 14C and driving rain

 <--- GFS @216  <--- ECM @216 

 

Yes, ECM looks quite encouraging but move onto the last frame which would be for Thurs 15th and it would appear that high pressure cell could indeed overshoot allowing low pressure to nudge closer from the southwest, something that Crewecold alluded to within the past 24 hours.

[MR EXTREMES]

On 2017-6-2 at 18:00, Steel City Skies said:

GFS 12z once again toying with the idea of stalling low pressure to the SW temporarily drawing up some hot and humid air for southern and eastern areas. Could be a recurring theme for the first part of this summer?

Agree with your ideas there. 

Its looking pretty hot humid next week. 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

1 hour ago, Steel City Skies said:

ECM substantially better than the GFS 12z for next week in terms of the orientation of the high pressure. GFS has us on the 'wrong' side with light northerlies or nor'easters (shudder) whilst ECM plonks it over us. 850s aren't exactly spectacular but with light winds and a better chance of 'clearer' weather it should feel lovely in any sun. Better than 14C and driving rain

 <--- GFS @216  <--- ECM @216 

 

Yes you are correct though it is in la la land,i will be keeping a close eye on this as i am off work from the 14th,will i get a dip in the north sea at Filey brig

GFS and ECM at that timeframe

not exactly a spanish plume but things will and can change,dare i say it,we need this hp to drift further east PLEASE

Edited June 5, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[Summer Sun]

Is it me or has the low at the weekend tracked a bit further west compared to a few days back? I'm fairly certain UKMO had Saturday's low right over the UK on Sunday's 00z and 12z

Edited June 6, 2017 by Summer Sun