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Posted
  • Location: Skelmersdale
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: 6-10 degrees. Spring 12-16 degrees. Summer 17-22 degrees.
  • Location: Skelmersdale
Posted

Wish you guys would speak english :cc_confused:

  • Like 8
Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

Morning all -

This mornings runs thankfully reinforce last nights output, in that high pressure builds in and settles things down & warms up. The runs vary in the time it takes to bring the high pressure in, but all eventually get the job done. Summer could be making its return in a week folks. :D

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
Just now, mb018538 said:

Morning all -

This mornings runs thankfully reinforce last nights output, in that high pressure builds in and settles things down & warms up. The runs vary in the time it takes to bring the high pressure in, but all eventually get the job done. Summer could be making its return in a week folks. :D

Was just about to post the same. From around day 8, high pressure in control. Lets hope the models start firming up on this soon.

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

The beebs thoughts on Sunday for high pressure to move in next week are starting to show now on more than one run

ECMOPEU00_168_1.thumb.png.f506a1691da9218dad99e187252e7bcf.pngECMOPEU00_192_1.thumb.png.0a1c9ba2787e4a81c1b9a3bc07311579.pngECMOPEU00_216_1.thumb.png.7646afe261575599a98ae605dc949c60.pngECMOPEU00_240_1.thumb.png.5441ca4569f5d6212b087b413be22cf4.png

:)

  • Like 6
Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

UKMO shows high pressure moving in by Tuesday

UKMOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.87fdbe9514de1d34848d62345ae44e09.pngUKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.ca50d88a196147f8ab61344a32b32bdb.png

:)

  • Like 6
Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
Posted
3 hours ago, 40*C said:

The 06z is nothing special with termps refusing to reach above 21c.

12z looking better 

Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
Posted
24 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO shows high pressure moving in by Tuesday

UKMOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.87fdbe9514de1d34848d62345ae44e09.pngUKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.ca50d88a196147f8ab61344a32b32bdb.png

:)

That's what I like to see

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

 Rtavn961.gif Rukm961.gif Rgem961.gif

Still an unusually large range of minimum pressure values being produced for the low affecting the UK noon Sunday;

GFS is near 992 mb whereas UKMO is around 998 mb and GEM 999 mb.

So GFS is responsible for most of that range at the moment - I wonder which end of the spectrum will ECM align with? Probably neither; slap bang in the middle for ultimate lack of clarity :laugh:

It's an important detail as it determines just how strong the breeze is during the weekend as well as how quickly the warm sector moves away east. So a big impact on how warm or not it feels across the UK. Of course the SE will be warmest of all and could see temps several into the 20s on Sunday if the warm sector hangs around long enough.

It should be cleared by Monday though; GEM has backed down on the lingering plume-like outcome. 

Rtavn1681.gif Rgem1681.gif 

Question now is whether the models are still taking the mid-Atlantic poleward amplification too far. GFS has reduced it for mid-week but increases it for the rest of the week. GEM is just more amplified overall (model bias?).

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

ECM not bad either, not as high pressure dominant as other runs and the previous 2, but does scoop up some very warm air towards the end of the run. Too far out for exact details at this range, but the right trend is emerging.

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted
4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM not bad either, not as high pressure dominant as other runs and the previous 2, but does scoop up some very warm air towards the end of the run. Too far out for exact details at this range, but the right trend is emerging.

 

You can say that again just look at mainland Europe!

ECMOPEU12_240_2.thumb.png.f6d7ba72e88d287cfffb06a576179976.png

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

Recm962.gif Recm2162.gif

Okay so ECM is notably slower to move the warm sector away on Sunday, enough so that the mid-20s look feasible in the SE corner.

It then turns into a very progressive run, so quite the contrast to GFS and GEM. As tropical maritime air is thrown east across a wide swathe of anomalously warm waters that lies adjacent to the western coastlines of northern Africa and western Europe, the usual heat build is accelerated and some impressive temps result after just a few days.

It's because of this manner of logic that I can see why some long range outlooks highlight an increased chance of extreme temperatures across NW Europe this year. Having that include the UK is another matter - and one that may divide opinion on here given that record-challenging temps = dangerous temps for human health.

The heat build potential is similar to that of 2015, but that year we had cooler waters in the vicinity of the UK plus interference from a developing El Nino, which both played their part in driving a strong jet stream along the major temperature boundary between the hot continent and cool seas. It only really broke once, and boy did we know about it (30th June to 4th July, peaking 1st July).

I do feel ECM is being a bit overly mobile with those lows this evening though - a slower build-up of heat seems more likely. I also wonder how easily we can achieve the level of stability required to avoid quick thundery breakdowns. Hopefully the similarities of the Atlantic-Europe sector patterns with those of 1995 will bear fruit in that respect.

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Sometimes UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Sometimes UK
Posted
3 hours ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

That's what I like to see

I think you will like this latest chart better still in the extended UKMO N.Atlantic.

 C

ukm2.2017061412.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

  • Like 9
Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
Posted

Evening all .So we all want Summer and yes gfs gives us it for a while later next week ,but ecm is not so responsive...watch the gfs follow the ecm tomorrow:rofl:

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
Posted

The ECM is an odd run after what has gone before. Only yesterday the models were going for the opposite option to what the ECM 12Z is showing, with the high staying out west in the Atlantic. Even the GFS 06z earlier on showed that scenario.

I imagine this run is one of the more extreme options in terms of the Atlantic strengthening again. It's a warmer run for the south but it looks like a cloudfest for areas further north- possibly even for everyone away from the SE corner.

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

I don't think we should be too downbeat at the models this evening/tonight,at least they are showing a dry scenario and the models(as they do) wether it be winter or summer etc do have wobbles and will not be precise this far out if it is a hot spell you are looking for,the trend is an HP cell somewhere close to or near to the BI

now i have just looked at the 6-10 day and 8-14 day 500mb outlook from NOAA and i have got to say it is looking a lot better than last nights where there was some ridging through the uk then building north to allow a southerly tracking jet,tonight however has more of a Hp influence on the uk and the 8-14 dayer has a southerly fetch,i am a little bit happier with this than last night's:)

610day.03.gif814day.03.gif

as it stands,trough to the west and HP cell building east of the BI,loverly:D

and again,you can't knock the mean from the ecm,pretty similar to last nights

EDH1-216.GIF?07-0

Edited by Allseasons-si
  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
Posted
3 hours ago, carinthian said:

I think you will like this latest chart better still in the extended UKMO N.Atlantic.

 C

ukm2.2017061412.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

Looks high pressure heaven  on ukmo, not too happy with ecm 12z 

Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
Posted
7 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

Looks high pressure heaven  on ukmo, not too happy with ecm 12z 

It brings in the heat but no much high pressure close by

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Hard to tell whether GFS is being too trigger happy and following the trend we've seen for a while now with the modelling (overamplification in the later stages of runs) or whether this overshooting of HP will become a firming trend as we progress through June

Day 7 shows us the ridging HP across the UK bringing predominantly dry, settled and warm weather

h500slp.png

However by day 9 we can already see a gain in latitude of the HP with the jet starting to creep underneath the HP

h500slp.png

From that point it's a matter of when not if pressure falls from the SW...

h500slp.png

Something to keep tabs on over the next week or so.

Also keep an eye on the CFS mean for July, along with the other longer range forecasting tools to see whether we can get any sort of convergence of ideas for the longer range. At present, the CFS has trended towards a mean mid Atlantic ridge- cooler than some would like perhaps but not necessarily that unsettled.

glbz700MonInd2.gif

  • Like 2
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