August 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

[Weather-history]

2011 to currently, 11 summer months were below the 1971-00 average compared to 9 during 2001-10

[Kentish Man]

I won't be asking for a repeat of this August any time soon. Ok not the worst one in historical terms  by any stretch but unkind for the year's first below average and a distinctly wet month to boot to coincide with many peoples all too precious holidays.

[Don]

6 hours ago, Relativistic said:

Ended up below all recent averages.

I'm not complaining and glad I was wrong!  

[J10]

This month's winner Alexisj9. 

Full results to follow tomorrow.

 

Edited September 2, 2017 by J10

[damianslaw]

Had a gut feeling August would buck this year's trend for above average months, and it comfortably did so.. A poor month all round.

[Don]

7 hours ago, Kentish Man said:

I won't be asking for a repeat of this August any time soon. Ok not the worst one in historical terms  by any stretch but unkind for the year's first below average and a distinctly wet month to boot to coincide with many peoples all too precious holidays.

August 2008 was the worst I have ever experienced.  I was on holiday in Cornwall that month and the weather was absolutely diabolical!  It actually returned a slightly above average CET of 16.2C which I think was a result of mild nights?  

[Weather-history]

6 hours ago, Don said:

August 2008 was the worst I have ever experienced.  I was on holiday in Cornwall that month and the weather was absolutely diabolical!  It actually returned a slightly above average CET of 16.2C which I think was a result of mild nights?  

That was horrific. The only months duller than the August of that year were January, November and December. 

[J10]

August 2017 Results

Monthly - Only one player got 15.6c, Alexisj9.

Seasonal - The top 3 is

1. simshady,
2. Daniel*
3. BornFromTheVoid

Overall - The top 3 is

1. davehsug (1st last month)
2. I remember Atlantic 252 (2nd)
3. Weather26 (4th)

This month saw the best entries coming late in the process, probably due to the cooler weather becoming more apparent.

August 2017 CET.xlsx
August 2017 CET.pdf

Edited September 3, 2017 by J10

[Roger J Smith]

UPDATES for recent normals and Consensus in the scoring.

 

Table of forecast errors and position points (Normal 1987-2016 played Dec as 1986-2015)

Error stat is forecast value minus actual value. Negative value means normal or consensus too low. 

... Positive means normal or consensus too high.

Errors are then averaged by absolute values, points are totalled.

Positions are relative to all players who have entered at least 7/8 months so far.

Rankings for months before July can be seen in the June post (last one in thread).

The July rankings are 5th for the two Normals (16.7) and 20th for Consensus (17.2).

 

FORECASTER ____ Dec _ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul _ AUG _____ mean ___ position

Normal 1981-2010 _  -1.4 _ +0.4_ -1.7_ -2.1_ -0.4 _ -1.5 _ -1.5 _ -0.1 _ +0.8 _____ 1.10 ____ 14th

__ points _________ 79.6_ 69.9_ 56,1_ 59.0_ 86.8 _49.7__7.5 _ 93.7 _ 61.8 ____ 564.1 ____ 6th

Normal 1987-2016 _  -1.0 _ +0.6_ -1.3_ -2.0__ -0.1 _-1.4_ -1.5 _ -0.1 _ +0.9 _____ 0.99 ____ 7th

__ points _________ 89.8_ 58.0_ 67.4_ 61.8_  98.4_ 53.0__7.5 _93.7 _ 56.6 ____ 586.2 ____ 5th

Consensus _______  -2.1 _ -0.1_ -1.8_ -2.2 __ +0.9 _-1.3_ -0.5 _+0.4 _ +0.9 _____ 1.13 ____ 15th

__ points _________ 50.0 _95.7 _52.4 _56.2 _57.1 _56.4 _72.4_ 70.1 _ 56.6 _____566.9 ___ 6th

 

Our group consensus and the two recent normals continue to lag behind the leaders but ahead of 90% of the field.

 

[alexisj9]

On 02/09/2017 at 21:48, J10 said:

This month's winner Alexisj9. 

Full results to follow tomorrow.

 

Thought i'd be a couple under after the warm up at the end.