Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere 2017/18

[cyclonic happiness]

Well, it's that time of the year again, where we can all start turning our backs from summer, and start looking north and east towards the encroaching snows of Siberia.

 

Lets hope that this year doesn't follow the snowless trends of the past 5, and that we get a winter to remember 

[cyclonic happiness]

Here are last year and this year together, it does look a bit healthier than last year in the Arctic, but I'm not sure about ice thickness levels, so it may be a bit misleading.  But fresh snowfall has already reached the far north of Siberia   

[Frost HoIIow]

Well let's hope the season turns out better for the UK than last Winter.

 

[vizzy2004]

Was wondering when this thread was gonna turn up, let the rollercoaster begin

[Radiating Dendrite]

Great to have this back! Strap yourself in everyone - winter 17/18 could be one hell of a ride.*

 

 

 

 

*or just mild, wet and boring.

[Seasonal Trim]

Absolutely love this thread. Certainly my favorite of the year.

And for posterity, here is what we should be aiming for....

[Don]

2 hours ago, Nizzer said:

Absolutely love this thread. Certainly my favorite of the year.

And for posterity, here is what we should be aiming for....

Hmm, that would be great but highly unlikely this year sadly.  I do love this thread also, though

[Allseasons-si]

It's great to see this thread back

10 hours ago, Don said:

Hmm, that would be great but highly unlikely this year sadly.  I do love this thread also, though

i am not having a stab Don but how do you know that!,do you have information to back that statement up,i know it was a rarity but could happen aagain this winter or the next etc.

 

I

[Don]

12 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

It's great to see this thread back

i am not having a stab Don but how do you know that!,do you have information to back that statement up,i know it was a rarity but could happen aagain this winter or the next etc.

 

I

Obviously anything's possible but a 2010 repeat does look unlikely at this stage due to pretty much all long range models strongly pointing towards a mild autumn, plus recent musings from some pros that late autumn and early winter are likely to be mild this year.

[Seasonal Trim]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

Obviously anything's possible but a 2010 repeat does look unlikely at this stage due to pretty much all long range models strongly pointing towards a mild autumn, plus recent musings from some pros that late autumn and early winter are likely to be mild this year.

As said above, I'm not having a dig at you Don but, the pros were sure we were on a cold one last year....... the rest is history!

[Allseasons-si]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Obviously anything's possible but a 2010 repeat does look unlikely at this stage due to pretty much all long range models strongly pointing towards a mild autumn, plus recent musings from some pros that late autumn and early winter are likely to be mild this year.

We have a long way to go yet Don,lets see what unfolds

as for long range models,i don't buy into them and never will,they cannot get a few days away right never mind three months,thats just me though.

[Allseasons-si]

1 minute ago, Nizzer said:

As said above, I'm not having a dig at you Don but, the pros were sure we were on a cold one last year....... the rest is history!

We wasn't that far away though Nizzer(a glancing blow) as you would say.

[Allseasons-si]

Just to add,we maybe in a slightly better position this winter with a lower solar min and E-QBO.

[Seasonal Trim]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

We wasn't that far away though Nizzer(a glancing blow) as you would say.

As we well know on these tiny islands, small margins make a big difference.

[cyclonic happiness]

A tiny splodge of snow just to the south of the northern coast of Russia/Siberia./  It's happening guys!! Winter is coming!!

[Ice Day]

Sitting in the garden in shorts basking in hot sunshine yet I'm taking a sneaky peak at this thread! Ridiculous really but we're drawn here at the end of August every year. Perhaps this is going to be the year for snow lovers, but after 5 snowless winters my optimism levels are rock bottom. As they say, it's the hope that kills you!

[Don]

7 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Sitting in the garden in shorts basking in hot sunshine yet I'm taking a sneaky peak at this thread! Ridiculous really but we're drawn here at the end of August every year. Perhaps this is going to be the year for snow lovers, but after 5 snowless winters my optimism levels are rock bottom. As they say, it's the hope that kills you!

My levels of optimism are rock bottom also, but that's better than having high hopes as the only way is up!

[CreweCold]

15 hours ago, Nizzer said:

As said above, I'm not having a dig at you Don but, the pros were sure we were on a cold one last year....... the rest is history!

Unfortunately (and it's nothing but experience talking here), when long range modelling converges on a mild outlook, a mild outlook is what we tend to get. Models tend to do very well modelling zonal driven regimes and there is usually only small margins of error in the output.

If there was large variability between the main long range forecasting tools and the opinions of the pros then you could argue that attempting to forecast the upcoming winter is futile...however there isn't and I think it's a fairly straight forward call this year sadly.

[Seasonal Trim]

28 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Unfortunately (and it's nothing but experience talking here), when long range modelling converges on a mild outlook, a mild outlook is what we tend to get. Models tend to do very well modelling zonal driven regimes and there is usually only small margins of error in the output.

If there was large variability between the main long range forecasting tools and the opinions of the pros then you could argue that attempting to forecast the upcoming winter is futile...however there isn't and I think it's a fairly straight forward call this year sadly.

Ok, I do get the pessimism of some on here. However, you must realise that, never has a cold blast been predicted this far in advance. So excuse me for not given a rat's backside what long range models are saying. 

Now let's not derail this excellent thread no more than we already have.

[blizzard81]

6 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Unfortunately (and it's nothing but experience talking here), when long range modelling converges on a mild outlook, a mild outlook is what we tend to get. Models tend to do very well modelling zonal driven regimes and there is usually only small margins of error in the output.

If there was large variability between the main long range forecasting tools and the opinions of the pros then you could argue that attempting to forecast the upcoming winter is futile...however there isn't and I think it's a fairly straight forward call this year sadly.

That's a perfect example of reverse psychology. I say that as I know you would not be so absolute with months to go until Winter. 

[syed2878]

It's always good to see this thread up and running so lets sit back and enjoy the ride what will come will come.

[cyclonic happiness]

16 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Unfortunately (and it's nothing but experience talking here), when long range modelling converges on a mild outlook, a mild outlook is what we tend to get. Models tend to do very well modelling zonal driven regimes and there is usually only small margins of error in the output.

If there was large variability between the main long range forecasting tools and the opinions of the pros then you could argue that attempting to forecast the upcoming winter is futile...however there isn't and I think it's a fairly straight forward call this year sadly.

Actually, a zonal winter would probably give us more chance of getting a cold northerly toppler, so ironically might be a better bet than waiting for an easterly or something.

It seriously cannot get any worse in the southern UK for snow, we are at rock bottom.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Good to see some Siberian snow, but if you see attached (from 3wks ago), the Polar ice still appears to be melting

[Don]

4 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Good to see some Siberian snow, but if you see attached (from 3wks ago), the Polar ice still appears to be melting

We are still in the melt season and should reach minimum around mid September.

[Ice Day]

12 hours ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Actually, a zonal winter would probably give us more chance of getting a cold northerly toppler, so ironically might be a better bet than waiting for an easterly or something.

It seriously cannot get any worse in the southern UK for snow, we are at rock bottom.

I think 'rock bottom' is overstating our last 4 winters.  I would take a 2 hour northerly toppler with a brief spell of light sleet!