Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch

[Paul]

Here we go then, already plenty of interest in the strat this year, and with a La Nina likely, perhaps a less hardcore strat than last year can be expected?

@chionomaniac will be along soon to fill in his thoughts on where things may be headed this year, but in the meantime, I've copied his excellent strat guide from 2015 below. 

For more info you can also read his full tutorial here:
https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/stratosphere/tutorial

Ed's opener from 2015/16

As ever, the first post will become both a reference thread and basic learning thread for those wanting to understand how the stratosphere may affect the winter tropospheric pattern, so forgive me for some repeat from previous years, but it is important that those new to the stratosphere have a place that they can be directed to in order to achieve a basic grasp of the subject.

The stratosphere is the layer of the atmosphere situated between 10km and 50km above the earth. It is situated directly above the troposphere, the first layer of the atmosphere and the layer that is directly responsible for the weather that we receive at the surface. The boundary between the stratosphere and the troposphere is known as the tropopause. The air pressure ranges from around 100hPa at the lower levels of the stratosphere to below 1hPa at the upper levels. The middle stratosphere is often considered to be around the 10-30hPa level.

Every winter the stratosphere cools down dramatically as less solar UV radiation is absorbed by the ozone content in the stratosphere. The increasing difference in the temperature between the North Pole and the latitudes further south creates a strong vortex – the wintertime stratospheric polar vortex. The colder the polar stratosphere in relation to that at mid latitudes, the stronger this vortex becomes. The stratospheric vortex has a strong relationship with the tropospheric vortex below. A strong stratospheric vortex will lead to a strong tropospheric vortex. This relationship is interdependent; conditions in the stratosphere will influence the troposphere whilst tropospheric atmospheric and wave conditions will influence the stratospheric state.

At the surface the strength and position of the tropospheric vortex influences the type of weather that we are likely to experience. A strong polar vortex is more likely to herald a positive AO with the resultant jet stream track bringing warmer and wet southwesterly winds. A weaker polar vortex can contribute to a negative AO with the resultant mild wet weather tracking further south and a more blocked pattern the result. A negative AO will lead to a greater chance of colder air spreading to latitudes further south such as the UK.

 AO chart

The stratosphere is a far more stable environment then the troposphere below it.

However, the state of the stratosphere can be influenced by numerous factors – the current solar state, the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO), the ozone content and distribution and transport mechanism, the snow cover and extent indices and the ENSO state to name the most significant. These factors can influence whether large tropospheric waves that can be deflected into the stratosphere can disrupt the stratospheric polar vortex to such an extent that it feeds back into the troposphere.

Ozone Content in the stratosphere

 Ozone is important because it absorbs UV radiation in a process that warms the stratosphere. The Ozone is formed in the tropical stratosphere and transported to the polar stratosphere by a system known as the Brewer-Dobson-Circulation (the BDC). The strength of this circulation varies from year to year and can in turn be dictated by other influences. The ozone content in the polar stratosphere has been shown to be destroyed by CFC's permeating to the stratosphere from the troposphere. The overall ozone content in the polar stratosphere will help determine the underlying polar stratospheric temperature, with higher contents of ozone leading to a warmer polar stratosphere. The ozone levels can be monitored here: 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/sbuv2to/index.shtml

One of the main influences on the stratospheric state is the QBO. This is a tropical stratospheric wind that descends in an easterly then westerly direction over a period of around 28 months. This can have a direct influence on the strength of the polar vortex in itself. The easterly (negative) phase is thought to contribute to a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, whilst a westerly (positive) phase is thought to increase the strength of the stratospheric vortex. However, in reality the exact timing and positioning of the QBO is not precise and the timing of the descending wave can be critical throughout the winter.

Diagram of the descending phases of the QBO: (with thanks from http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/index.html )

The QBO has been shown to influence the strength of the BDC, depending upon what phase it is in. The tropical upward momentum of ozone is stronger in the eQBO , whereas in the wQBO ozone transport is stronger into the lower mid latitudes, so less ozone will enter the upper tropical stratosphere to be transported to the polar stratosphere as can be seen in the following diagram.

http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/4563/2013/acp-13-4563-2013.pdf

However, the direction of the QBO when combined with the level of solar flux has also been shown to influence the BDC. When the QBO is in a west phase during solar maximum there are more warming events in the stratosphere, as there is also during an easterly phase QBO during solar minimum, so the strength of the BDC is also affected by this – also known as the Holton Tan effect .

http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/labitzke/moreqbo/MZ-Labitzke-et-al-2006.pdf

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrd.50424/abstract  

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013JD021352/abstract

The QBO is measured at 30 hPa and has entered a westerly phase for this winter. As mentioned warming events are more likely during solar maximum when in this westerly phase – with the solar flux below 110 units. Currently, we have just experienced a weak solar maximum and the solar flux heading into winter is still around this mark. This doesn’t rule out warming events, but they will not be as likely – perhaps if the solar flux surges then the chance will increase.

Latest solar flux F10.7cm:

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

Sudden Stratospheric Warmings:

One warming event that can occur in the stratospheric winter is a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) or also known as a Major Midwinter Warming (MMW). This, as the name suggests is a rather dramatic event. Normally the polar night jet at the boundary of the polar vortex demarcates the boundary between warmer mid latitude and colder polar stratospheric air (and ozone levels) and this is very difficult to penetrate. SSWs can be caused by large-scale planetary tropospheric (Rossby) waves being deflected up into the stratosphere and towards the North Pole, often after a strong mountain torque event. These waves can introduce warmer temperatures into the polar stratosphere which can seriously disrupt the stratospheric vortex, leading to a slowing or even reversal of the vortex.

Any SSW will be triggered by the preceding tropospheric pattern - in fact the preceding troposheric pattern is important in disturbing the stratospheric vortex even without creating a SSW.  Consider a tropospheric pattern where the flow is very zonal - rather like the positive AO phase in the diagram above. There has to be a mechanism to achieve a more negative AO or meridional pattern from this scenario and there is but it is not straightforward.  It just doesn't occur without some type of driving mechanism. Yes, we need to look at the stratosphere - but if the stratosphere is already cold and a strong polar vortex established, then we need to look back into the troposphere. In some years the stratosphere will be more receptive to tropospheric interactions than others but we will still need a kickstart from the troposphere to feedback into the stratosphere. This kickstart will often come from the tropics in the form of pulses and patterns of convection. These can help determine the position and amplitude of the long wave undulations Rossby waves - that are formed at the barrier between the tropospheric polar and Ferrel cells. The exact positioning of the Rossby waves will be influenced by (amongst other things) the pulses of tropical convection, such as the phase of the Madden Jullian Oscillation and the background ENSO state and that is why we monitor that so closely. These waves will interact with land masses and mountain ranges which can absorb or deflect the Rossby waves disrupting the wave pattern further - and this interaction and feedback between the tropical and polar systems is the basis of how the Global Wind Oscillation influences the global patterns.

If the deflection of the Rossby Wave then a wave breaking event occurs – similar to a wave breaking on a beach – except this time the break is of atmospheric air masses. Rossby wave breaks that are directed poleward can have a greater influence on the stratosphere. The Rossby wave breaks in the troposphere can be demonstrated by this diagram below –

RWB diagram:

https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jmsj/86/5/86_5_613/_pdf

 This occurs a number of times during a typical winter and is more pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere due to the greater land mass area. Most wave deflections into the stratosphere do change the stratospheric vortex flow pattern - this will be greater if the stratosphere is more receptive to these wave breaks (and if they are substantial enough, then a SSW can occur). The change in the stratospheric flow pattern can then start to feedback into the troposphere - changing the zonal flow pattern into something with more undulations and perhaps ultimately to a very meridional flow pattern especially if a SSW occurs - but not always. If the wave breaking occurs in one place then we see a wave 1 type displacement of the stratospheric vortex, and if the wave breaking occurs in two places at once then we will see a wave 2 type disturbance of the vortex which could ultimately squeeze the vortex on half and split it – and if these are strong enough then we would see a displacement SSW and split SSW respectively. The SSW is defined by a reversal of mean zonal mean winds from westerly to easterly at 60ºN and 10hPa. This definition is under review as there have been suggestions that other warmings of the stratosphere that cause severe disruption to the vortex could and should be included. http://birner.atmos.colostate.edu/papers/Butleretal_BAMS2014_submit.pdf

A demonstration of the late January 2009 SSW that was witnessed in the first strat thread has been brilliantly formulated by Andrej (recretos) and can be seen below:

 

The effects of a SSW can be transmitted into the troposphere as the downward propagation of the SSW occurs and this can have a number of consequences. There is a higher incidence of northern blocking after SSW’s but we are all aware that not every SSW leads to northern blocking. Any northern blocking can lead to cold air from the tropospheric Arctic flooding south and colder conditions to latitudes further south can ensue. There is often thought to be a time lag between a SSW and northern blocking from any downward propagation of negative mean zonal winds from the stratosphere. This has been quoted as up to 6 weeks though it can be a lot quicker if the polar vortex is ripped in two following a split SSW. A recent paper has shown how the modelling of SSW and strong vortex conditions have been modelled over a 4 week period. This has shown that there is an increase in accuracy following weak or strong vortex events – though the one area that the ECM overestimates blocking events following an SSW at week 4 is over Northwestern Eurasia.

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/104007

One noticeable aspect of the recent previous winters is how the stratosphere has been susceptible to wave breaking from the troposphere through the lower reaches of the polar stratosphere - not over the top as seen in the SSWs. This has led to periods of sustained tropospheric high latitude blocking and repeated lower disruption of the stratospheric polar vortex. This has coincided with a warmer stratosphere where the mean zonal winds have been reduced and has led to some of the most potent winter spells witnessed in recent years.

We have also seen in recent years following Cohen's work the importance of the rate of Eurasian snow gain and coverage during October at latitudes below 60ºN. If this is above average then there is enhanced feedback from the troposphere into the stratosphere through the Rossby wave breaking pattern described above and diagrammatically below.

Six stage Cohen Process:

The effect of warming of the Arctic ocean leading to colder continents with anomalous wave activity penetrating the stratosphere has also been postulated

http://www.tos.org/oceanography/archive/26-4_cohen.pdf

As ever, I will supply links to various stratospheric websites were forecasts and data can be retrieved and hope for another fascinating year of monitoring the stratosphere.

GFS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/

ECM/Berlin Site: http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html  

Netweather: https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/stratosphere

Instant weather maps: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/strat.php

 NASA Merra site: http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html

Previous stratosphere monitoring threads:

2016/17 https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86485-stratosphere-temperature-watch-201617/

2015/16 https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/84231-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20152016/

2014/2015 https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81567-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20142015/

2013/2014 https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78161-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20132014/

2012/2013 https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74587-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20122013/

2011/2012 https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/71340-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20112012/

2010/2012 https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/64621-stratosphere-temperature-watch/?hl=%20stratosphere%20%20temperature%20%20watch

2009/2010 https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/57364-stratosphere-temperature-watch/

2008/2009 https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/50299-stratosphere-temperature-watch/

[Northwest NI]

Excellent information!

[Blessed Weather]

I'm still a learner in here, but we seem to be at an interesting stage in autumnal developments atm with trop vortex struggling whilst up above the strat vortex is looking organised. So presumably a disconnect at the moment and the big question - how will things develop from here? Will the strat filter down or the trop disrupt up??

ECM charts:

500hPa 19th Nov 10hPa 18th Nov

 

 

[Catacol]

2 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

I'm still a learner in here, but we seem to be at an interesting stage in autumnal developments atm with trop vortex struggling whilst up above the strat vortex is looking organised. So presumably a disconnect at the moment and the big question - how will things develop from here? Will the strat filter down or the trop disrupt up??

ECM charts:

500hPa 19th Nov 10hPa 18th Nov

 

 

The strat will filter down and couple. A period of westerly dominated weather is inevitable - even 1962, after an early Canadian Warming, had to wait until late December to show that the trop vortex was smashed.

[Brucie]

....but with an E-QBO this winter and the anomalous warmth in the Arctic, will the vortex be on 'steriods' this winter when/if it does couple with the troposphere, and will it be more vulnerable than in times of W-QBO to attacks from above and/or below? Questions, questions...!!

Davd

[Dennis]

Warming over Siberia/North Canada late october 2017

[Singularity]

It's the battle between a tropospheric-stratospheric linked vortex and anomalous ridges - usually kicked up by tropical forcing - pushing toward the high latitudes that tends to be how strong vertical wave flux takes place to produce large stratospheric warming events, which is essentially why a full winter of persistently blocked and cold weather is (AFAIK) unheard of in this country.

The best winters see early internal wave breaking events leading to a HLB period with the blocks aligned nicely for the UK (the bit we're really struggling to resolve this year), then the vortex winding up but only briefly thanks to some tropical activity for example having also got going and driven poleward ridges that come up against the vortex, trigger vertical wave flux, and so on.

It's true as Catacol posted that - after an often chilly and at times cold Nov - Dec 1962 was very mediocre in terms of the UK's weather until shortly before Xmas, and the major cold didn't set in until Boxing Day, but looking back at the stratospheric analysis, it appears that was actually internally driven, with the Nov weather related to the Canadian warming event. Amazing really that it persisted so long afterwards... and I really wonder how?

Edited November 10, 2017 by Singularity

[sebastiaan1973]

Hi, you can read it here http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2346/abstract

[northwestsnow]

As Dennis posted there was a decent warming north of canada in late Oct..wonder if this is impacting on the pv..

[jonboy]

3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

As Dennis posted there was a decent warming north of canada in late Oct..wonder if this is impacting on the pv..

probably coincided with the big uptick in flux activity we saw in early october

Edited November 10, 2017 by jonboy

[Bruegelian]

On 11/9/2017 at 21:34, Catacol said:

The strat will filter down and couple. A period of westerly dominated weather is inevitable - even 1962, after an early Canadian Warming, had to wait until late December to show that the trop vortex was smashed.

So after the strat couples with the trop and we have a westerly dominated period (as seems likely), then what? What are the possible routes back to cold?

Thank you, I have only a basic understanding of these matters

[Catacol]

10 hours ago, Bruegelian said:

So after the strat couples with the trop and we have a westerly dominated period (as seems likely), then what? What are the possible routes back to cold?

Thank you, I have only a basic understanding of these matters

In my interpretation (because others may disagree) we need to see two things in particular: Nina start to trend back towards neutral from a low point that isn't too low.... and date line convection in the pacific maintain a decent profile in order to provide a good boost to AAM from the next phase of the MJO. The October phase was a big one - the next one is unlikely to be so big but needs to be big enough to support mid lat ridges moving further to the north.

From a Strat angle also, a decent MJO forcing will aid in any disruption we might get to the vortex. The vortex will build through December but as we hit January there may be an opportunity to put it under pressure. To aid MJO forcing it would be good to get some spikes in frictional and mountain torques - top of my list there would be to see the a waning of the Aleutian high and more of a trough in the north pacific. There are some on American WX who think this may occur thanks to a PDO trending closer to neutral than for a fair while.

In essence its all up for grabs. A strong Nina, weak MJO, sustained Aleutian ridge - and I think any sustained cold spell is dead in the water for Jan/Feb. But these are not certain.

[Interitus]

23 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

As Dennis posted there was a decent warming north of canada in late Oct..wonder if this is impacting on the pv..

What the anomaly animation shows is at the same time as warming over the Alaska/Canada area is a cooling over the north Atlantic/European region - this is just a redistribution of temperatures as the vortex moved. There was only a little warming as can be seen in the graph of 60-90°N 10mb temperature; compare this year to the significant warming of Autumn 2016 -

https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra2/temp/t60_90n_10_2017_merra2.pdf

[Bruegelian]

4 hours ago, Catacol said:

In my interpretation (because others may disagree) we need to see two things in particular: Nina start to trend back towards neutral from a low point that isn't too low.... and date line convection in the pacific maintain a decent profile in order to provide a good boost to AAM from the next phase of the MJO. The October phase was a big one - the next one is unlikely to be so big but needs to be big enough to support mid lat ridges moving further to the north.

From a Strat angle also, a decent MJO forcing will aid in any disruption we might get to the vortex. The vortex will build through December but as we hit January there may be an opportunity to put it under pressure. To aid MJO forcing it would be good to get some spikes in frictional and mountain torques - top of my list there would be to see the a waning of the Aleutian high and more of a trough in the north pacific. There are some on American WX who think this may occur thanks to a PDO trending closer to neutral than for a fair while.

In essence its all up for grabs. A strong Nina, weak MJO, sustained Aleutian ridge - and I think any sustained cold spell is dead in the water for Jan/Feb. But these are not certain.

Thank you, all very interesting.

[lorenzo]

What a great winter ahead, at last one not under the spectre of +AO regime, solar 'seemingly' in decline not withstanding some APmag influence..

Strat doing some cool stuff broken underneath - yet showing signs of getting juiced and potentially entering VI phase before the final third of the month, mean 30-45 days of strat control takes things to early Jan where proper wave activity is needed to counter intensification. Good job we have some Nina assistance to mix things up.

 

Last of the assaults for now perhaps as AO regime in the offing following the blockier outlooks representative of the nina base state. Recent fluxes here..

Nice n cool too..

 

Nina clearly in play and eQBO Aleutian High the one to watch for nuances vs previous seasons as it dictates the NH wave pattern..

Schiraldi GEFS site shows a stunning drop in AAM which if verified drives us to here for final third of the month.

 

Edited November 11, 2017 by lorenzo

[Dennis]

zonal winds 10hpa wants down....

[lorenzo]

GEFS bias, check tweets from Recretos

[bluearmy]

Yesterday's ec 12z promoted some activity high up and low down (nothing exceptional but more than we've seen recently). Today's 00z op shows the vortex at 30hpa doing something other than being very organised by day 10 with a potential split around 30/50 hpa. at timeframe day 10 I doubt too much should be taken from one run and given this ec op was the first in a while to head back down to AO -4, perhaps i should wait for the 12z before making this post ............

[sebastiaan1973]

On 11-11-2017 at 10:29, Catacol said:

In my interpretation (because others may disagree) we need to see two things in particular: Nina start to trend back towards neutral from a low point that isn't too low.... and date line convection in the pacific maintain a decent profile in order to provide a good boost to AAM from the next phase of the MJO. The October phase was a big one - the next one is unlikely to be so big but needs to be big enough to support mid lat ridges moving further to the north.

From a Strat angle also, a decent MJO forcing will aid in any disruption we might get to the vortex. The vortex will build through December but as we hit January there may be an opportunity to put it under pressure. To aid MJO forcing it would be good to get some spikes in frictional and mountain torques - top of my list there would be to see the a waning of the Aleutian high and more of a trough in the north pacific. There are some on American WX who think this may occur thanks to a PDO trending closer to neutral than for a fair while.

In essence its all up for grabs. A strong Nina, weak MJO, sustained Aleutian ridge - and I think any sustained cold spell is dead in the water for Jan/Feb. But these are not certain.

 

They expect a weak La Nina. According to research by Hood we should expect the large amplitudes and occurrence rates, and the weakest static stabilities in the tropical lower stratosphere, because we are in a state of QBOE and under solar minimum (SMIN)

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL072832/abstract

[Catacol]

36 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

 

They expect a weak La Nina. According to research by Hood we should expect the large amplitudes and occurrence rates, and the weakest static stabilities in the tropical lower stratosphere, because we are in a state of QBOE and under solar minimum (SMIN)

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL072832/abstract

Latest Metoffice update has the 3.4 region dropping to -1.5 or maybe lower... though some members are less cold. This isnt good. Takes Nina forcing into 1988/89 or 1998/99 territory. 

[sebastiaan1973]

Yes, I know and it's probably the reason for their positive NAO forecast. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Page 24 you can read that UKMO is on the lowest side of the forecast (of course course it can be right)

[Paul_1978]

10 hours ago, Catacol said:

Latest Metoffice update has the 3.4 region dropping to -1.5 or maybe lower... though some members are less cold. This isnt good. Takes Nina forcing into 1988/89 or 1998/99 territory. 

If anyone wants to know what the "3.4 region" is.....

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/indicators/sst.php

[Snowy Hibbo]

On 12/11/2017 at 08:10, lorenzo said:

 

 

 

 

Hey, where do you get these plots from? Thanks.

[beng]

11 hours ago, Catacol said:

Latest Metoffice update has the 3.4 region dropping to -1.5 or maybe lower... though some members are less cold. This isnt good. Takes Nina forcing into 1988/89 or 1998/99 territory. 

I think 1.5 is the peak dip though - not the 3 monthly figure; take 88/89, the 3 month figure at the low was -1.8 for the 3 monthly period of Nov, Dec, Jan - which would be quite a lot stronger that the 3 month figure predicted in that MO graph.

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

I don't think La Nina will be major this coming winter - we've had a couple of noticeable positive burst in the SOI - but nothing that screams major Nina in-coming (yet at least):

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

Assuming that's true, then this La Nina, will not impact the stratosphere in the same way that the 89/89 98/99 events did. Those years also had a higher solar forcing than we've got now.

 

[Catacol]

22 minutes ago, beng said:

I think 1.5 is the peak dip though - not the 3 monthly figure; take 88/89, the 3 month figure at the low was -1.8 for the 3 monthly period of Nov, Dec, Jan - which would be quite a lot stronger that the 3 month figure predicted in that MO graph.

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

I don't think La Nina will be major this coming winter - we've had a couple of noticeable positive burst in the SOI - but nothing that screams major Nina in-coming (yet at least):

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

Assuming that's true, then this La Nina, will not impact the stratosphere in the same way that the 89/89 98/99 events did. Those years also had a higher solar forcing than we've got now.

 

Agree with all of that. MetO forecast trend is towards a deeper Nina though - in this case I hope the trend isn't the friend. SOI all over the place this year so far though since June again the trend is quite clear

Looking for that trend to halt soon.