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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted

No smelly shortwaves to worry about so far :rofl:

Previous letdowns in the model output leave a mental scar :rofl:

Surely no going back now...

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Jason M Experienced

Jason M

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Posted
28 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

So the things to watch for as the 12’s start to roll out...

Short term: Continuity of the heights linking up and rising as per before. Pretty sure this is nailed at this stage!

No pesky short waves rearing their ugly faces!

And later when ECM comes out, that none of that cluster that appeared in the EPS ON THE 00z, appear in the op, and preferably in a perfect world, are all gone when the eps come out later!

Eyes down folks...

Adding to this, I think also its worth noting the heights over the UK. The GFS had most of UK at or above 1030. ideally we want it a little lower (as per ECM). Not that GFS is bad!!!

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted
59 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yup I agree Iberia is unquestionably too far south but its something to be wary of. For reference here is the ECM clusters

image.thumb.png.9b8a2b3ca60bd577427c8d14c7061642.png

The northerly cluster 2 resembles this evolution. Remember the 00z yesterday. Aside from that the cold pool could still just be focused on the SE, one or two members show this.

Personally I think we would be really unlucky if things didn't materialise, especially given the size of the cold pool. The ensemble swing of February 2009 still lingers on my mind though.

I know it was me that started a panic over ECM cluster 2 but it isn't quite as bad as is being made out - if you look at the progression from T192 to T216 and then T240, you can clearly see the cold is still moving in from the continent, just not quite that direct hit - probably staying dry in the north and west. Coldies would have bitten your arm off for this cluster at any time since 2013!!

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018022000_216.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018022000_240.

 

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

I certainly haven't seen anything within the output that suggests any kind of backtrack as yet.

I think it was BA that said the 850's will get watered down as we get nearer the time but I expect there is more truth to that when dealing with a PM flow and modification rather than a continental flow.

 

 

Edited by Mucka
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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

No smelly shortwaves to worry about so far :rofl:

Previous letdowns in the model output leave a mental scar :rofl:

Surely no going back now...

Yep looking identical to the excellent 6z (so far). Perhaps another run for the archives coming up :)

Edited by Steel City Skies
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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

Beast!!!...

Demonic is the wording!!..

Expansion of the flow is overwellming!!!

gfsnh-1-78.png

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Popular Post
Posted

S80220-14421292.jpg

Ah those were the days, 'real' snow depths not your 1-3 cm and traffic chaos like now!

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Rayth Community Regular

Rayth

Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East
Posted
3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

850's will get watered down

What if it’s the opposite and being under modelled ?

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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted
Just now, Summer Sun said:

ICON has shifted the high a bit further south

12z

icon-0-159.thumb.png.c7e0668f4b7d88e0403f3c40c2d61cb3.png

06z

icon-0-171.thumb.png.1df7b983e8cbf7753feaa57836f42ebb.png

12z looks better to me if you're comparing the 2? 

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)

UKMO 96 very nice ?

72F2CE14-2404-44B9-8672-28895B70C146.thumb.gif.a4fa8a02c47b6bbc543c2dc63a2ba754.gif

Edited by karlos1983
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Aiden2012 Community Regular

Aiden2012

Posted
  • Location: Pocklington E/yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Love snow
  • Location: Pocklington E/yorkshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ICON has shifted the high a bit further south

12z

icon-0-159.thumb.png.c7e0668f4b7d88e0403f3c40c2d61cb3.png

00z

icon-0-171.thumb.png.1df7b983e8cbf7753feaa57836f42ebb.png

Just looks like a stronger high and a touch North to me ?

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Northern Sky Aficionado

Northern Sky

Posted
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
Posted
2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ICON has shifted the high a bit further south

12z

icon-0-159.thumb.png.c7e0668f4b7d88e0403f3c40c2d61cb3.png

00z

icon-0-171.thumb.png.1df7b983e8cbf7753feaa57836f42ebb.png

Unless you've put those charts the wrong way round it looks like the high is slightly further north on the 12z?

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ICON has shifted the high a bit further south

12z

icon-0-159.thumb.png.c7e0668f4b7d88e0403f3c40c2d61cb3.png

00z

icon-0-171.thumb.png.1df7b983e8cbf7753feaa57836f42ebb.png

Eh? The high looks further North to me, look around Iceland, core of heights further North.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
2 minutes ago, Panayiotis said:

12z looks better to me if you're comparing the 2? 

Agreed, the 12z is a direct Easterly flow. Gonna be bitter next week!:cold:

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted
2 minutes ago, Raythan said:

What if it’s the opposite and being under modelled ?

I realise you have attributed a false quote to me as a joke but please don't because it will get lost in translation.

Can you correct it please.

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

We are likely to gain -again-..

Via iberian collapse and height align...

 Core-cold has its eyes on uk- and ample exactions are firmly in our favour.

Cold pooling allowed-to gain on expanse..

And be positively shunted westward!!

# colder #inflow

gfs-0-90.png

gfs-1-90.png

Screenshot_2018-02-20-15-57-06.png

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted
4 minutes ago, Panayiotis said:

12z looks better to me if you're comparing the 2? 

I'm following the 1020 line over the UK 00z it got down to around north Wales 12z it is down to South Wales

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)

Oh that’s gorgeous UKMO +120

01193C2D-5F8B-49D6-9EBF-BA628979BF0C.thumb.gif.273cf4314f1adab9e13275ae45c0b2e0.gif

Game very much on with that chart :air_kiss:

Edited by karlos1983
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